Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[crossfirecssf] 11/5/2016 13:14

Just came across this share. How on earth can a gold producer producing $80m plus of gold pa have a market cap of £10m???

Sorry, I've not done any research yet, but do they have a mountain of debt or something?

[zhockey] 11/5/2016 12:36

Matt,

The hourly gold chart is on a pivot and needs to mark above 1290 to be be bullish IMO

[mattjos] 11/5/2016 12:11

Hourly chart on Gold looking terrific now. Another attack on $1300 coming up.Those big trades earlier were me .. Bed & ISA'd another tranche of 4.5p stock. Pity the ISA allowance is so low

[laserdisc] 11/5/2016 11:58

Bill doing presentation tomorrow via proactive
Thursday 12th May 2016 - 6.00pm. Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB

[jbravo2] 11/5/2016 10:21

Exactly bsg. The data gives it away riley. And hence the small move up in price today.

Looks like there is little appetite to sell around 8p (as was the case on the way up). They might find a few more sells at 9p this time so it looks like trading 8.75-9.25p could be in order

Edit: not such a small move now an hour later :D

[bsg] 11/5/2016 10:07

Just a low side roll over paying commission in shares.

[rileyma] 11/5/2016 10:04

Just a wobble

[jbravo2] 11/5/2016 09:38

Stubbed your toe riley?

[gymratt] 11/5/2016 08:51

Break out from 10p and the 'bowl' would be on for 16p (short term), IMHO.

[ilostthelot] 11/5/2016 08:47

Glass half full Zhockey.
Why 5% a year ? I'd be happy with gild to 10,000 per oz AAZ would be trading at over a tenner and we'd all be rich.

[zhockey] 11/5/2016 08:40

I'm not sure about anything :)

[mattjos] 11/5/2016 08:33

Still sure about gold are you zhockey?5% a year is not going to happen in stage 3

[zhockey] 10/5/2016 23:11

Matt I disagree, I think gold has gone a long way quickly and most rational folk believe a pull back is due, we are $200 above the 200 SMA!

The fringe are calling for $4000 gold this year and I would say that that is highly unlikely. I would like to see solid slow progress with gold, maybe 5% a year, well above bond and equity yields.

IMO, in the absence of an "event", the gold price and the 200 sma will gravitate towards each other and meet before the next move up, Brexit is a non-starter, Greece is old news. What will drive gold is money flows, either out of bonds or equities, plain and simple.

I would not completely rule out a really big move in the pm's, but I doubt we will see it this year.

Anyway with regards to AAZ, I see short term pull back with gold dragging, if gold can hold 1200 robustly then I think AAZ can start to move up again without gold necessarily moving much higher. Let's hope for good April numbers,

[mattjos] 10/5/2016 22:19

The "it can't go up, Won't go up, doesn't deserve to go up" sentiment still exists here. That's the problem with this sort of situation .. Folk get programmed into doubting any rise is sustainable.Nothing just goes up in a straight line. All I see is a nice 'staircase' pattern emerging on the chart with not all of each rise now being eroded by short term profit taking.Gold is going to catch a lot of folk off-guard as this year advances.

[zhockey] 10/5/2016 21:57

I very much doubt that peeps sold today due to the PSA discussion on this thread, I mean what is negative about it anyway?

The share price is down because it ran out of momentum in the face of a falling gold price. Some are taking profits, others caught in a bull trap may be cutting loses.

[highly geared] 10/5/2016 21:15

Perhaps all the debate re: the PSA has scared some weak holders out today and caused the share price movement from 2:30pm. As has been said , this was covered years ago.
Let's see what the upcoming presentation brings.
What AAZ somehow need to achieve is output consistency/ forecasts and some certainty that major Capex is done for the immediate future . Start paying down debt into a rising gold price and the share price will really respond.
The geology remains a challenge but the CEO has real skin in the game and seems to act in shareholders best interests.
We just need to move away from the monthly angst of whether production is on target....!

[mattjos] 10/5/2016 20:04

Gold chart looking more and more tasty for next leg soon

[ilostthelot] 10/5/2016 18:03

That's what I thought Jb cheers.

[jbravo2] 10/5/2016 17:39

@ ilostthelot:
It's ALL costs to do with that mine.

"Contractor’s recovery of Mining Costs for each individual Mining Property shall be achieved from Commercial Products of each individual Mining Property."

Yes exploration is covered. At that mine. Not at other sites. e.g. Ordubad exploration starts to run up costs to be recovered against that site should it ever produce.
Yes the new mill is covered. It is capital expenditure the same as the existing plant.

[mattjos] 10/5/2016 17:35

guys ... can everyone please read Article !! in the PSA document link:



It's easier if you download it as a PDF, when prompted.

It's a reasonably simply contract.

My interpretation is what I have call 'The Duality' of the PSA .... post peak CAPEX (as per now) the contract balance is very, very firmly tilted in favour of the Contractor (AAZ). We have a very significant sum of corporation tax losses (that roll forward indefinitely) to offset against the company profits, let alone the debt interest offset also.

I really struggle to understand why, after all this time, some of the old hands are still debating this. Surely it is more obvious now how this PSA works in real-life, now that we have been through one complete cycle since production started? By that I mean the CAPEX/Profits cycle

[ilostthelot] 10/5/2016 17:18

Does Opex cover production cost per oz?

Or is Opex just exploration costs and extraordinary equipment like the new mill?

[ilostthelot] 10/5/2016 17:07

I've read it several times Jb
My understanding was that it is a product share agreement
I said that in my post this morning which kicked off all this chat about the PSA.
Unionhall questioned me if it was a profit share...

It does seem that different people are interpreting it differently. That's where my unclear comment came from.

It's a fair enough deal for AAZ apart from the tax on profit..

[jbravo2] 10/5/2016 16:35

It's perfectly clear. Please read the PSA. Mattjos has helpfully included a link in his header.

For example to clear up that last comment:

Just to be clear, it is a PRODUCTION Sharing Agreement. Not a profit sharing agreement. The govt get a share of the PRODUCTION no matter what. Although of course it does include how profits are shared.

From the agreement you would learn that the govt own everything that is produced but then transfer to the contractors (i.e. AAZ) goods of the correct commercial value to cover what is claimed under the PSA. So of course the govt can choose to keep their share (currently its been 12.75% - which as discussed is the absolute minimum they will ever receive for any calendar quarter) in whatever they choose. Currently they keep 12.75% of the value of the total production in gold it would seem but if they wanted to have a mix of copper, gold and silver they could.


I'm not specifically picking on you ilostthelot but this confusion over the PSA (and for example like earlier today when unionhall thought OpEx couldn't be covered as it would mean the govt share is worth nothing) is over done. Its a relatively straightforward agreement if one reads it, especially as the material parts to this discussion relating to production and commercial value etc etc are only a few pages.