Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 17:17

I don't see your logic, why can't you have a value target whilst also considering intermediate risk to the downside?

If one buys a stock and believes it will only go up, most of the time they will be dissapointed.

[aimshare] 05/5/2016 17:06

Whatever you say Z.


However, this doesn't explain the two polar opposite posts within 5 days.


Your 30p target with a Gold price lower than today versus your posts today.


It doesn't matter a jot in relation to the future price behaviour but I would have felt guilty not highlighting that it hadn't gone unnoticed. :o)

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 16:39

Aimshare,

I have been buying since gold broke out to add to a core holding I've had for years.

Do I think this could go to 6p in the short term, yes, however I would not sell out to try and catch 2p on the spread.

I imagine if it does drop to 6p some will despair and sell at a loss before the share price rises again, not me, I will be buying!

[witheco] 05/5/2016 16:28

Hopefully this all works out.

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 16:28

lol ... I think the days of single digit share price are now rapidly drawing to a close here.

[jbravo2] 05/5/2016 16:27

You can now get over 8p if you're looking to sell but only for 50k shares. Price to buy has also moved up again and will keep moving up 'til we tempt out the next significant round of sellers. Where are you all? ;D

I really doubt zhockey has sold after being in so long.

[aimshare] 05/5/2016 16:22

Make your mind up Zhockey.

Now, 'you struggle to see AAZ breaking out further' at 8p

Yet, only five days ago, you were looking at a 'pretty conservative' 30p with a Gold price lower than it is now.

________

One of the largest developing gold properties in Eur or Asia - AAZ

zhockey - 01 May 2016 - 16:58:20 - 2372 of 2434

Jeanesy,

My model for AAZ which I think is pretty conservative has a valuation of around 30p. This is excluding any additional discoveries or acquisitions and assumes a gold price of 1200.


_________



Call me old fashioned but it smacks of someone having sold their position, hence your other recent suggestion of looking to buy at 6p, frustrated by the continuing rise in price after selling.

Tut tut.

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 15:27

You pays your money...

I struggle to AAZ breaking out further if gold drops back to 1150, sentiment is everything. Let's see what happens with the NFP tomorrow, will there be the regular dump of gold futures? If not and the print is circa 150k then perhaps 1307 will be surpassed.

[jbravo2] 05/5/2016 15:07

I also have to say I disagree hockey. We saw prices averaging close to 1300 for gold for 12-18 months back in 2013-2014 and the share price was far north of here.
I'd argue things are much improved here since then and so a price of 15p ballpark (as it was back then) wouldn't be unreasonable would it?
Looks like the shares are thin at this level. I could sell 150k at 7.85p if I was so minded (no takers anyone??) but couldn't get a price to buy 50k.

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 14:23

that aside .... we remain free of 'the herd' here so, am quite happy to see it creep upwards every week for a long while yet before they clock it & so, I trust would most other investors in the company..

If I may make a request to readers here .. please try to resist the temptation to promote this on the tu-penny traders thread. The company needs that mob here right now about as much as it needed Bashirov.

There'll be time enough for them once we break 90p :-)

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 14:07

I personally disagree with that statement zhockey. That's part of the story for sure but, there is more to it than that. At 4p the valuation was simply absurd & it was mainly driven down to that level by Bashirov's desperation to exit his position and free up cash. Once a stock is beaten down to that level it does not always mean it will simply shoot straight back to fair value. The market loses confidence in it and only looks for the negatives as a consequence, no matter how cheap it appears.
That sentiment has now very clearly turned.

From a chartists perspective, there was an unfilled gap at that level from November 2008 that was always going to act as a magnet for it. Having filled that gap & the subsequent one it made in early 2015 (then filled once again Feb this year), the chart has been in an uptrend.

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 13:03

The only reason AAZ is no longer at 4p is the gold price.

[brasso3] 05/5/2016 12:50

The gold price will not have any negative impact on AAZ in the $1100 - $1300 range as they can make decent profit anyway.

For me they need to show a strong months production now as we do not know what the major factors were for the poor start to the year. i.e weather and hard rock. AAZ are around 3500 oz down on the same period last year. If the weather was the major influence of the two then it should show in April numbers.

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 12:26

zhockey ... look at the chart for gold, it's simply completing the Handle just now .. 1400 its going to, imo

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 12:17

Keep an eye on gold, AAZ can't get far if gold is retracing IMO

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 12:09

bit slow to get going but, now finally gaining some traction on the breakout

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 11:36

Why? Bashirov felt no obligation to do so

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 11:29

Matt you will have to declare soon :)

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 11:25

more for me today on that drop. This price is really daft

[brasso3] 05/5/2016 11:23

2 weeks until April figures are released.

I think they will need to be back up to 5500oz if the FY target (75,000oz) can be taken seriously.

[wrighty46] 05/5/2016 11:18

Look at debt reduction and new equipment bought q1 may give an insight into cash flow available. Not an expert but hard cash is coming into the company. Certainly not running on fumes here anymore. GLA

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 10:57

Jbravo, assuming the news you hope for will involve an increase in production, how do you suppose this would be funded?

[jbravo2] 05/5/2016 09:23

Patience jbe, patience. I don't think there will be significant news that quickly but I'm sure some will arrive shortly. I reckon before the AGM is more realistic.

[zhockey] 04/5/2016 16:40

I would buy more at 6p, not hoping for it but I would not be surprised. Will be an interesting month.

[mattjos] 04/5/2016 16:35

zhockey .. those will be same people calling gold down to $800 when it was at $1,050, I imagine.