Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 06/5/2016 16:10

Jbravo great summary, thanks.

Celeritas, be fearful when others are bullish :)

[bleepy] 06/5/2016 15:58

10 out of 10 and go to the top of the class

[jbravo2] 06/5/2016 15:52

There are many cases I have considered but Chowder (love that autocorrect and I'll run with it) is one, and an interesting one at that.

Let's look at a few things.
Please forgive my flowery language but some opacity can't hurt vs bots or the like searching for terms. Paranoid? Well like I said, it can't hurt. Anyone involved/interested here should understand the post, despite the opacity.

At the moment it seems as if over half of it is owned by "the girls" but in reality could that be 100%? Of course it could. Are those other companies real? I have no idea. I'd assumed that at 30% ownership (as was widely known about beforehand) the other 70% (who I'd assumed were actually legit corporations of some descript) would be looking for far too much money for AAZ to be interested, despite rumours that a buyer was being sought.

The recently disclosed papers could change the game somewhat though couldn't they?
What if 100% was really owned by the girls and all you needed to do was strike a deal, not with a foreign corporation, but with an individual feeling the pressure of their current situation?
Would that individual still want as much as someone who felt secure in their ownership and position in society? Perhaps not. Especially if that individual hadn't really paid anything much for the ownership anyway. And perhaps especially so if they were making plenty of money elsewhere which was getting less attention.
Of course, that isn't often the way such individuals often feel, so I may be way off with that. But it something I had just been mulling over.

Next the deal would need selling to the populace.
Obviously the jobs form a backbone of that. Anything else?
It would seem the existing owners had a PSA on far more preferable terms to the one covering AAZ. Whereas AAZ have a 49/51 minority PSA it would seem Chowders owners had a 70/30 majority PSA with the state. Perhaps a reform of that could form part of the "PR to the nation".
Perhaps a smelter royalty could be signed?
Perhaps local banks would finance it?
Perhaps if I've been far too generous to the owners needing to offload it they would want AAZ to pay full market price and to raise their own finance.
That could be done via banks and/or equity but of course any bank would want to do a lot of diligence on the ownership and of course the resources there. I've never seen any figures for the resources or production at Chowder. Could that be done?

I guess the action in trading here reassures me here. There is very little to suggest something is brewing like equity raising unlike the evidence that had been accumulating and finally came to fruition at SHG today.
In short of course, we are near uniquely placed, in that any deal affects the presumed chief negotiator far more than anyone else.
I'm pleased to say this remains my sole small gold producer in my portfolio as I really can't find better anywhere else.

These are just musings. Interested to hear your thoughts.

[celeritas] 06/5/2016 15:52

Talk about a half empty glass, it's like being out with someone one a nice and sunny day who keeps saying it's about to rain.

[zhockey] 06/5/2016 15:19

Jbravo is you expansion case based on Chodvar? That could be potentially be low cost to startup but I wonder how they would pay for the mining rights?

[zhockey] 06/5/2016 14:04

Very interestingly there was no dump on the announcement of a big miss.

[jbravo2] 06/5/2016 13:52

Ah I see. Well perhaps it should be higher but its heading in one direction it seems at the moment. Touch wood.
As, on average, more weak data comes in from round the globe over the next few months it will continue to climb.
Similarly AAZ will continue to climb as good news follows good news over the next few months.

[bleepy] 06/5/2016 13:48

The US economy added just 160,000 jobs in April, under shooting expectations and well below March figures of 280,000.

Well below the average of 200,000

[zhockey] 06/5/2016 13:48

Yes weak, (+16) when I posted, it should be up $50 on this news.

[jbravo2] 06/5/2016 13:41

lol weak?
Worst timed post of the year? ;)

[jbe81] 06/5/2016 13:39

Really?! just jumped to $1290

[zhockey] 06/5/2016 13:37

Gold looking weak in the face of some very bullish nfp numbers.

[jbravo2] 06/5/2016 12:45

I'm sure they don't really.
It's just a bit of a con saying the spread is currently at 9.25/8.25 because of course it isn't.

[bsg] 06/5/2016 12:42

I never understand why they want to discourage buyers?

[jbravo2] 06/5/2016 12:17

No, that's a middle road likely scenario.
I have scenarios which see well north of £1 but these are less likely as there is so much that isn't clear about the next few months never mind the next 2 years.
For example, I haven't attempted to answer your question from a few days ago about funding. I can guess lots of possibilities and I have some which I think are more likely than others but they are all just guesses.

Edit: yes I agree wrighty

Edit2: The struggle to find sellers goes on. Can now sell 50k above mid price. No takers? Surely a few takers around 8.6p? ;D
And of course can't get a price to buy even 10k.

Edit3: And so the ask gets moved up to try to discourage us pesky buyers. :D
They really need to move the bid up though to find the next round of substantial sellers. This is moving up on thin volumes so far.

[wrighty46] 06/5/2016 12:12

Reduction in debt is also a key factor. Debt I believe could come down substantially this year. Also the possibility of renegotiating for a better deal for the company. Debt being clipped by $15-20m this year I believe Could well be on the cards. I forcast my glass to remain over half full for the foreseeable. GLA

[zhockey] 06/5/2016 11:58

That's high end based on your expected good news?

[jbravo2] 06/5/2016 11:45

2 years... 75p... at current gold price

[zhockey] 06/5/2016 09:54

Go on Jbravo, give us your high estimate for the share price in 2 years.

[jbravo2] 06/5/2016 09:05

It doesn't really matter though does it phil? There are going to be sellers at every price in varying quantities... although there does seem to be a scarcity this low.
I bought over 400k at 5-6p recently and won't sell a single one at 10p or indeed 20p. This share is heading north, north, north for the next 2 years.Transformational.

If the news flow is good and the company is advancing the sellers will be replaced by many more buyers. We've had one of the largest sellers possible in the last couple of years and the world kept turning and AAZ kept producing gold. So long as Reza owns 30% the rest is now largely irrelevant IMO.

[philo124] 06/5/2016 08:32

And wether peeps who loaded up c5p hang in for 20p or actually sell at 10p.

[jbe81] 06/5/2016 08:04

Interesting to see what happens to price of gold this afternoon and next week

[zhockey] 05/5/2016 22:36

Looking at the ADP the NFP will likely disappoint. I'll be interested to see if we get a massive dump at the NFP release, if we do then the price is still being held back.

@Terropol - I think we need more resources to get to 50p.

[mattjos] 05/5/2016 22:02

zhockey .. you're a good contributor & always welcome here + I know you've been a very long term observer & investor here.

EWT always divides folk ... sometimes extraordinarily accurate I find, providing one can correctly identify the often complex set-ups. The shorter term ones timeframe, the harder I find it to identify but, long term can be easier.

As for gold, it still has another circa 6-7 sessions yet to confirm the latest pattern. on that, I'll watch the pattern rather than the NFP ... the setting of price of gold has migrated eastwards this year but, will be interesting to see how USA metrics might affect it.
Job creation is the usa might look persuasive currently but, the quality of the jobs being created is woeful & they will be very quickly shed later this year and next as earnings continue to rollover & then fall off. There is a wave of automation & mechanisation sweeping the world now, motivated by minimum wage hikes in nations as a form of political gerrymandering. I do not believe these current hirings will prove durable