Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[crazycoops] 22/7/2020 16:24

2sp, SW did mention "the aggressive plans announced in the last RNS" which I presume related to Gedabek u/g

[wanobi] 22/7/2020 16:19

thanx Brasso, saw that, great post,,,, one thing that springs to mind here for me,,, is that this is a tiny deal for AAZ,,, so small I'm thinking its just the first of many,,, we shall see, but, if AAZ want to be mid-tier, acquiring other potential like this for peanuts and forming a formidable offering could be interesting on the M&A front later on :-) lol what do I know,,, but hey,,, it's nice to dream big and if gold keeps on rising!!!! :-) LOL GLA Cheers Wan :-)

[2sporrans] 22/7/2020 16:16

Thanks for that Brasso

Noted that SW back in Azerbaijan.
3 Exploration rigs drilling in Avshancli/Gilar/Ugur-deeps; going well he says.

No mention of Gedabek underground.
Roll on the H1 E&D update.

[mattjos] 22/7/2020 16:13

Even if we ultimately walk away from Ireland, we will have added significantly to the value of the project.
Absolute worst case scenario, this should wipe its face for us & we'll also come away from it with a whole heap more Technical knowledge in the Geology & Processing Dept. that will serve us well in the future...…R30;……230;

as compared to what could be hugely significant upside.

no bad odds

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 16:09

From a CGNR share holder perspective:-

chrysos22 Jul '20 - 15:29 - 9859 of 9859
0 1 0
A mere 15 days ago I suggested that Conroy should get off their a$$ and do a deal, ANY deal, on ANY terms, with a partner, ANY partner, rather than pursue the current plan of SFA, and amazingly, this week, after nearly 20 years of waiting, they seem to have done just that! For Conroy it was any port in a storm, Newmont or Barrick they certainly are not, so who is this new partner AAZ?

Well they bear a remarkable similarity to Conroy, or at least what Conroy should have been from 2010, if the promises had been kept. They are AIM listed, but with a single-country presence in a small independent former colony on the fringe of Europe (Azerbaijan), and they are majority owned (~30%) and run by a couple of politically-connected, elderly Azerbaijanis. There the similarity ends!

Their resource/reserve (and to their credit it is mostly reserve) is around 1.2Moz at 2-3g/t, they have built a mine and they produce circa 65,000oz per year (~90,000 GEO) from their main open-pit operation, which they have built up in only a few years. At a share price of 130p they were 20 times the size of CGNR (£150M) at the time of the deal. Everything Conroy could have, but failed to be a decade ago. So far so good!

The downside is their leases are relatively short, some to the mid 2020’s and their royalties (currently a whopping 13%) head for 50%+!!! in a couple of years too, plus I’m sure Azerbaijan isn’t really the wonderfully stable operating environment they make out, so one can hardly blame them for seeking to diversify and extend their life, which is where this deal comes in. We can hopefully expect them to commission some actual work, which they can actually afford, being cash and dividend generative, and quickly.

They are certainly no dummies either. For a mere £7M, which THEY get to spend in the ground, they acquire 52% of the main assets. It shouldn’t be difficult, as that sum should easily take Clontibret to a mine-ready status with no additional costs. Cleverly they have ring-fenced their investment and ownership into THE PROJECTS, and individually at that (Clontibret, Clay Lake, anything else they fancy) so can easily cut any driftwood as they see it and focus the cash where it is best put to use.

Obviously, they have no appetite for CGNR paper, or sitting shoulder to shoulder with the present BoD, and are happy to steer clear of the associated liabilities and reputation, so present shareholders are stuck with these. So how is this likely to play out? Well RC is wily, so I imagine he will get a placing “for working capital” away PDQ, and convert a lot of his “debt” before the share price goes too far north, so major dilution for the rest. I have no doubt that AAZ can do the job, although I worry about their true understanding of the challenges. Ireland and the UK (Clay Lake is in N. Ireland) are very different jurisdictions to Azerbaijan, and any mine is going to be operationally similar and equally or more environmentally sensitive (just look at their website gallery and transfer that to the Monaghan countryside). Good luck doing here what they achieve in a couple of years there. Plus I doubt Conroy at this stage REALLY have the local team and experience to contribute much (but help can be hired).

If, and it’s a big IF, it comes to that, they may flip their 50%+ of the project(s) to a bigger player in a couple of years, or if they do build, I imagine will easily dilute Conroy down to a minority/royalty on the shared development costs. Either way, thankfully it is largely out of Conroy’s hands now. What’s the best strategy? I’d ride this wave for a bit to extract the best value, then quietly start shedding and buying AAZ before they get too far into the project(s) and whilst there is still good news to be had. JMHO.

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 16:09

From a CGNR share holder perspective:-

chrysos22 Jul '20 - 15:29 - 9859 of 9859
0 1 0
A mere 15 days ago I suggested that Conroy should get off their a$$ and do a deal, ANY deal, on ANY terms, with a partner, ANY partner, rather than pursue the current plan of SFA, and amazingly, this week, after nearly 20 years of waiting, they seem to have done just that! For Conroy it was any port in a storm, Newmont or Barrick they certainly are not, so who is this new partner AAZ?

Well they bear a remarkable similarity to Conroy, or at least what Conroy should have been from 2010, if the promises had been kept. They are AIM listed, but with a single-country presence in a small independent former colony on the fringe of Europe (Azerbaijan), and they are majority owned (~30%) and run by a couple of politically-connected, elderly Azerbaijanis. There the similarity ends!

Their resource/reserve (and to their credit it is mostly reserve) is around 1.2Moz at 2-3g/t, they have built a mine and they produce circa 65,000oz per year (~90,000 GEO) from their main open-pit operation, which they have built up in only a few years. At a share price of 130p they were 20 times the size of CGNR (£150M) at the time of the deal. Everything Conroy could have, but failed to be a decade ago. So far so good!

The downside is their leases are relatively short, some to the mid 2020’s and their royalties (currently a whopping 13%) head for 50%+!!! in a couple of years too, plus I’m sure Azerbaijan isn’t really the wonderfully stable operating environment they make out, so one can hardly blame them for seeking to diversify and extend their life, which is where this deal comes in. We can hopefully expect them to commission some actual work, which they can actually afford, being cash and dividend generative, and quickly.

They are certainly no dummies either. For a mere £7M, which THEY get to spend in the ground, they acquire 52% of the main assets. It shouldn’t be difficult, as that sum should easily take Clontibret to a mine-ready status with no additional costs. Cleverly they have ring-fenced their investment and ownership into THE PROJECTS, and individually at that (Clontibret, Clay Lake, anything else they fancy) so can easily cut any driftwood as they see it and focus the cash where it is best put to use.

Obviously, they have no appetite for CGNR paper, or sitting shoulder to shoulder with the present BoD, and are happy to steer clear of the associated liabilities and reputation, so present shareholders are stuck with these. So how is this likely to play out? Well RC is wily, so I imagine he will get a placing “for working capital” away PDQ, and convert a lot of his “debt” before the share price goes too far north, so major dilution for the rest. I have no doubt that AAZ can do the job, although I worry about their true understanding of the challenges. Ireland and the UK (Clay Lake is in N. Ireland) are very different jurisdictions to Azerbaijan, and any mine is going to be operationally similar and equally or more environmentally sensitive (just look at their website gallery and transfer that to the Monaghan countryside). Good luck doing here what they achieve in a couple of years there. Plus I doubt Conroy at this stage REALLY have the local team and experience to contribute much (but help can be hired).

If, and it’s a big IF, it comes to that, they may flip their 50%+ of the project(s) to a bigger player in a couple of years, or if they do build, I imagine will easily dilute Conroy down to a minority/royalty on the shared development costs. Either way, thankfully it is largely out of Conroy’s hands now. What’s the best strategy? I’d ride this wave for a bit to extract the best value, then quietly start shedding and buying AAZ before they get too far into the project(s) and whilst there is still good news to be had. JMHO.

[wanobi] 22/7/2020 16:05

yes, a reassuring interview for me, all good, cheers Wan :-)

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 15:59

2m warrants at 16p in CNGR would cost £320k and be worth £440k at current share price of 22p. In the money already! With any exploration success and gold above $2000 what will stop CNGRs share price increasing by several multiples as this gets close to production. This deal is good value and is costing AAZ a tiny amount of money.

[jeanesy] 22/7/2020 15:51

Good to hear that Stephen Westhead will be based in Azerbaijan. They seem confident they can progress things forward in Ireland where others have failed. Time will tell.

[wanobi] 22/7/2020 15:46

aha, yes, there we go :-)



Cheers
Wan :-)

[wanobi] 22/7/2020 15:45

I hear you jeanesy,,,, and all I can say is,,, AAZ has its reasons for the JV and we do not really know what they are yet,,, I'm not about to throw the towel in until I know more and so far this management team & geologists has performed well, so I shall wait and see what their plans are before I act in haste and end up repenting at leisure :-) LOL,,, for now, keep faith in the AAZ team and let's see is my approach to this :-),,, re-read the letter from Reza;

The Company is now very focused on growing its business by both leveraging its presence in Azerbaijan and deploying its reliable cash flow elsewhere. In Azerbaijan, there are two parts to our strategy: to increase production from our existing concessions and to obtain new concessions. We have reported extensively on our exploration programme at Gedabek and elsewhere. Our efforts are starting to yield results and have already led to new discoveries. To bring these discoveries into production takes time and we have announced our expected timelines. The original Gedabek discovery within the production sharing agreement currently extends to March 2022, but it can be extended for a further 10 years and we have already started the formalities for this extension. The Company expects this renewal to be routine and in accordance with the existing agreement. We continue to operate the Gedabek mine on the basis that an extension is forthcoming.

The second part of our expansion strategy in Azerbaijan is to extend our existing concessions. We have had discussions with the Government of Azerbaijan who appear to be well disposed to granting us further exploration areas. We have also begun the legal work to determine how any new concessions can be incorporated into our existing production sharing arrangement. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed these discussions throughout the first half of 2020, they have been wide-ranging and our relationship with the Government of Azerbaijan remains strong. We are working together to maximise the benefit of Azerbaijan's abundant natural resources for both parties.

We were required to acknowledge publicly in August 2019 that the Government of Azerbaijan had announced it had appointed advisors with regard to a possible transaction with Anglo Asian Mining. There have been no significant subsequent events requiring further announcements by us. Nevertheless, I can assure shareholders that it is the Company's understanding that the Government of Azerbaijan has no intention to nationalise, purchase or otherwise take control of Anglo Asian Mining or its assets in Azerbaijan.

The other pillar of our overall business strategy is to diversify and pursue opportunities outside Azerbaijan that complement our existing operations and where synergies exist. This is not an easy task. Suitable opportunities of the right size in good jurisdictions are rare and the landscape is very competitive. However, the Company has been actively investigating several opportunities and negotiations are at an advanced stage for one potential joint venture. I look forward to making further announcements about this shortly when the negotiations are concluded.

Helps me anyhow :-)

Cheers
Wan :-)

[jeanesy] 22/7/2020 15:39

At last the company speaks . Watching it now

[...] [...] Sorry can't seem to post the link . It is on proactive

[...]

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 15:33

CNGH now at 22p so our 16p warrants are well in the money.

[katsy] 22/7/2020 15:31

People pilling into POG again.

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 15:24

New interview with Bill

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 15:15

Most gold mining shares are in risky areas. I do not think Azerbaijan is any worse a location than these places:-

CEY - Egypt
HGM - Russia
HUM - Mali
HOC - Peru
FRES - Mexico
TSG - Russia
SHG - Tanzania
ALTN - Kazakhstan
CNG - Tajikistan

[jeanesy] 22/7/2020 15:07

WAN that just about sums up my feeling on the JV. That article you have posted is nearly 6 years old. What has CGNR done about it ..... absolutely nothing it seems. There is a company that needs money to start up a massive gold/silver/copper and maybe other metals mine in Idaho . It has huge potential and is going to need financing. Wouldn't we have been better spending more money on something that is much nearer production like that? At least we could see the logic behind it .We spend 2 million pounds on a company in Ireland,that has resources and yet seems a million miles away from production at a time when PM'S are at an all time high. By the time production goes ahead in Ireland ... if indeed it does at all ..PM'S might not be quite so high. I am sure i am not alone in wondering why we are spending the time on pursuing something like this when we have so much untapped potential on our own doorstep ?It is a distraction we could do without. Orubad for example is yet again on the back burner , why ? I hope that the company will explain to us all the reasoning behind it.I have to say that the PR is again lacking here imo... sorry for my rant but i am very frustrated with what is going on here when we should be celebrating a record high share price co-inciding with record PM prices. Instead we are below where we were a year ago and people are disillusioned and selling up it seems .

[mattjos] 22/7/2020 15:06

Ptolemy, I think it's easy to see demons just abut anywhere & everywhere just now.
By the same logic you present, you can construct a case for BP to pull out of the Caspian.

The Azeri government take may not be leveraged to the upside but, neither is it leveraged to the downside. It simply carries on regardless & in many ways acts as an incentive for contractors such as AAZ to continue to invest in the country for the long term.
There has to be some periods of upside for the contractors in the PSA, else there will simply will be no willing contractors & that is clearly not appealing for the state.

Precious metal mining is still a very small operation in the context of the Azeri state as a whole & has its uses for Azerbaijan. It can be held up as a joint success story & its also bringing in new technology & skills that did not exist before.

I am lead to believe that AAZ first looked at this project 2+ years ago.
We also know they have looked in Oman, Georgia, Turkey & I'm quite sure that Reza has had/got a pile of propositions on his desk for consideration so, I don't consider this a one-and-done diversification.

The global economy is in a mess and tensions are rising across the world … countries such as Azerbaijan need friends a whole load more than they need enemies right now

[the stigologist] 22/7/2020 14:57

For chart lovers take a look at XSG

I don't know anything about it

[bleepy] 22/7/2020 14:56

The psa renewal only applies to the open pit as other mines have long lead times. The present psa lease on open pits runs out 2024/5. By then who knows the open pits might well be exhausted and not need psa extension. Should it do then psa extension @ 2x5yr blocks are a formality. And we hear that formal application has been placed. That infers they expect to be mining the open pit for many many years.

Aaz have decided to bring Gedabek u/g on stream in Q4 with an initial 15yr psa agreement same as other prospects.

[bleepy] 22/7/2020 14:44

“The current JORC (2012) Resource of 320,000 ounces of gold (Indicated) and 197,000 ounces of gold (Inferred) totals 517,000 ounces of gold at 2 grammes per tonne gold at a cut-off grade of 1.0 gramme per tonne of gold. According to Conroy Gold, the majority of the drilling to date is to a depth of less than 200 metres and a maximum depth of 350 metres. The deposit remains open in all directions, as well as to depth, and excellent gold intersections, e.g. 16.6 metres at 6.5 grammes per tonne of gold, have been recorded outside the current resource area.“


517,000x$900(after costs deducted) = $465ml

At 50,000ozs/yr = 10yrs production @ 55% share earns Aaz $255.75ml

If and when pog attains $2,600oz then above profit doubles.

If exploration doubles the present resource.....Stephen Westhead has had the last 12mths to examine Conroy Gold admin docs and confer with their geologists assessing the possibility of 8ml+ ozs Au with an aggressive exploration strategy.

[cinoib] 22/7/2020 14:37

cannonfodd, no good buying in dearer or it wouldn't be cricket. Patience and see what happens, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this, but time will tell.

[wanobi] 22/7/2020 14:30

AAZ -

Could this be another reason for AAZ to be interested in Conroy!!!

Cheers
Wan :-)

[ptolemy] 22/7/2020 14:24

Matt,

I hope you don't consider discussing political risk as 'bickering' but when you talk about stakeholders you rarely include the Azeri Government.

Yes, people in Gedabek are doing well, Yes, shareholders have been rewarded many times over, Yes management may be some thing special (I can't comment). Yes, Western governments may seize or devalue our wealth and miners seem a logical 'hiding place.' But AAZ investors should recognise that the Azeri government may also have ill intentions.

Being fixed to production, the Azeri Government return is less leveraged than other stakeholders. Daily, the Azeri's see their asset leaving the country at a time when their balance sheet is under huge strain. How do they justify to their people; foreigners are getting wealthy at our expense? If you add endemic corruption to the mix, I'm unable to call it a safe investment. Canada, perhaps, but Azerbaijan? I have spent 10-days in Baku and met with government officials and doing business, whilst satisfying business principles, is not easy (well, not for me).

Convoy is the deal that could be done in a hurry and I suspect negotiating it began shortly after the Azeri Government consulted NY consultants. It's also a potential fallback position if renewal of the PSA turn out to be more than a formality.

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 14:23

'10 days profit spent on it, that’s it!'

Brilliant!!!