Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[fozzie] 10/5/2020 17:50

Thanks for the suggestions Mad and Jeansey.

[wanobi] 10/5/2020 17:35

ouchhhhhh pogue, YIKES,,, that's very sobering indeed :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[goodgrief] 10/5/2020 17:07

Art Berman is an oil analyst worth following...httpS://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/m.investing.com/news/commodities-news/energy--precious-metals--weekly-review-and-calendar-ahead-2167211%3fampMode=1?client=safari

[walter walcarpets] 10/5/2020 15:44

crazycoops: saint in exile is right; it just saves having to highlight and paste.

[the stigologist] 10/5/2020 15:38

EVG that statement reads like someone suffering from Stockholm Syndrome

"My captors are brilliant and treating me fine. Please pay them the ransom immediately"

[crazycoops] 10/5/2020 15:37

No I don't, I am a premium subscriber - are you sure my link doesn't work because it looks fine from my view?

[saint in exile] 10/5/2020 14:18

Crazy You have to put a capital in to make a link.

[crazycoops] 10/5/2020 13:58

The irresistible glow of the gold miners https://www.merian.com/gb/en/individual/insights/the-irresistible-glow-of-the-gold-miners/

[pogue] 10/5/2020 13:36

A heads up to what can happen if you are missing a vital piece of information others are aware of


The April 20 historic oil price crash that sent the prompt May WTI contract plunging to the unheard of price of negative $40 per barrel now seems like ancient history with oil back in the $20s (at least until the June contract matures in 10 days) and stocks are delightfully levitating, but to one trader what happened on that fateful Monday will remain a permanent scar of how everything can go terribly wrong in the blink of an eye. Syed Shah, a 30-year-old daytrader, would usually buy and sell stocks and currencies through his Interactive Brokers account, but on April 20 he couldn’t resist trying his hand at some oil trading. Shah, working from his house in a Toronto suburb, figured he couldn’t lose as he spent $2,400 snapping up crude at $3.30 a barrel, and then 50 cents. Then came what looked like the deal of a lifetime: buying 212 futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate for an astonishing penny each.

and another interesting article highlighting bubbles and the mentality when one is happening well worth reading in the context of the pharma boom we are having if not the Tesla one the article is actually about



When an "it" stock really goes ballistic, conventional analysis becomes pointless. It's all about momentum. Buy first, think later. bother with research now? This thing's a rocket! As the momentum maniacs piled in after Piecyk's call, Internet message boards were swamped with sophomoric posts, often fixated on hourly price fluctuations. On the day of Piecyk's call, 3,034 posts poured into Yahoo!'s Qualcomm message board. Old-timers bemoaned the "RIP factor"--the low ratio of intelligent posts. Intoxicated with profits, one gleeful investor crowed, "I AM A GENIUS." A fellow philosopher contributed this pithy and profound insight: "1000 yea baby yea."..................

In January 2008, as the subprime crisis was brewing and Bear Sterns approached its demise, oil prices hit $100 a barrel for the first time in history. By May of the same year, as WTI exceed $120 a barrel, Goldman Sachs warned that oil was heading towards $200 a barrel:

Mr Murti said the energy crisis could be coming to a head as a lack of adequate supply growth was becoming apparent. He said: “The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months.” He added that the spare capacity of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cushion against unexpected supply shocks was very low.

The fact that the global economy was facing acute economic challenges in the summer of 2008, didn’t dent the oil price rally, nor did it lesson analysts enthusiasm for oil prices:

Oil recently hit US$135 a barrel, more than double where it was a year ago. And the once unimaginable prospect of oil at US$200 a barrel is gaining currency among the world’s most respected oil watchers. Jeff Rubin, chief economist with CIBC World Markets, predicts oil will rocket to that level by 2012. Goldman Sachs figures we’ll get there even sooner. Other analysts, meanwhile, have begun to float more startling figures, of oil at US$250, even US$300 a barrel.

[brasso3] 10/5/2020 11:55

This week will see gold break out IMO. I think the run up to $1800 is going to happen before the end of May. I cannot see gold punching through that level first time and we most likely will get some kind of cup-handle formation on the chart. I think lows of $1600 are still possible in 2020 but it won't last long.

[wanobi] 10/5/2020 11:44

thanx all,,, I will add it to the header Bumpa, cheers Wan :-)

[pogue] 10/5/2020 11:44

I have finally had a chance to read the excellent article posted by Wan on the gold and oil prices, very interesting. I focused on the oil price but find their assumptions miss a few valid points.
1. The oil market was in over supply before this crisis as OPEC+ were looking to increase the quota cuts to try and raise the price of oil they skipped over that.
2. They assume a return to the same demand as before this crash next year when even after the 2008 crash, which is mild compared to this, it took nearly 2 years return and add in the price took 3 years to get to get over $100 having crashed from $140.
3. The assumption that we are going to get back to the same level of demand next year as we were at in Feb is optimistic I suggest considering airlines are predicting 2 to 3 years to get back to the same capacity, the shift to home working is massive right now from what I see most people's companies are looking at making it permanent, social distancing is not going to stop any time soon which is going have a long term impact on consumption of everything and there is a high chance of a second spike in CV19 judging by the outbreak Korea is now dealing with, I suggest America is certain to have one considering the policies there which will spread it worldwide.
4 If Trump is in power he is going to stop any spikes in the oil price with everything he has got when the US is trying to come out of a recession. He will allow $60 a barrel though. If Biden is in power he will be looking to reintegrate Iran into the global market which is 4mbpd. Consideration of what the worlds largest consumer and producer of oil wants should be considered a major factor.

All of the above mean that losses due to stripper wells etc, totaling 4+ mbpd, not coming back on line will be covered I suggest.

Overall though it made me think and look at lots of graphs on demand and production and I agree oil will rise in price this and next year and probably spike a few times due to the lag in returning production but not very high as production coming back on line in my view will cover the shortfall because of the points above.
Predicting oil price I should add is a mugs game any further than a few months at best just looking at articles over the years this morning I actually laughed at how badly wrong common belief was at certain times.

CMB
Regards PFC which was mentioned I sold my trader holding at a large profit either before or after you not at the top as I think you got, but a multiple of what I paid, and kept the smaller core holding in my high yield portfolio I did not sell as it was underwater in Feb when I sold most of the rest of that portfolio. I would not buy these right now as contractors generally follow oil companies out off recession as oil has to rise and stay up before contractors get orders hence it is a perfect place to buy when an uptrend in the oil price is more obvious, which is where I came in the last time. You will not off course get the bottom but then again picking a bottom only gets you smelly fingers as has been proven this week in PTAL.

[jbravo2] 10/5/2020 11:37

You got it gf, mf.
Especially if their predictions are conservative.
It's not out of the question we smash the 100m revenue target. $120m is more than possible.
Middle of the road from their target (66koz Au) @ $1600/oz should see us there once you add the copper and silver, and of course the interest from the cash in bank. Wonder if we're still getting 3%? Perhaps not.

Clearing over 60m in the year? :O

All very possible if gold stays this high. Will be interesting to watch as we near the 27th.

[mad foetus] 10/5/2020 11:00

A lot of attention has been given to Paul Tudor-Jones revelation that he is buying Bitcoin for his clients. At the end of the same research note he says this about gold: Speaking of gold, in a low-carry world, gold remains a very attractive hedge against the Great Monetary Inflation and hedges against other risks clouding the outlook, including a renewed flare up in the China-US relationship where financial sanctions could eventually be used in a brute-force decoupling. How far can gold rally from its current price? A simple metric based on the ratio of the value of gold above ground to global M1 suggests gold could rally to 2,400 before it reaches valuations consistent with the lowest of the last three peaks in this valuation metric and 6,700 if we went back to the 1980 extremes. One thing is for sure, these are going to be incredibly interesting times.

[brasso3] 10/5/2020 10:00

BTC dropped to the 200 week MA over night at $8200. This has been very good support in the past.

[bumpa33] 10/5/2020 09:50

Evgen CEO (Stephen Franklin) leaving has been playing over in my mind, found this on his LinkedIn profile...




Hi all - I have been inundated with calls and messages since yesterday's announcement, so I thought I would make a short post on my personal Linked-In account. Deciding to leave Evgen was a tough call, but one that I made in the best interests of the shareholders. The share price has been suppressed for a while and does not reflect the true and substantial value in the business. What is needed now is fresh vision and new energy to take it to the next stage. The Company remains a great business and I will continue to support them as a long-term shareholder. I intend to take a short break now to recharge and will resurface in due course. Thank you to all those that have sent kind messages at this time of change. I also cannot stress how great the Evgen Board and management team have been in the way that this transition has been dealt with - much respect, Steve


Wan - any chance of sticking a permanent link to that article you posted? Could prove to be handy to revert back to, lot of great points/analysis there.

[jeanesy] 10/5/2020 09:46

I would have a look at PXC fozzie. This one is very much under the radar. A gold/silver/copper play in Idaho with Great prospects, recent director buys instills further confidence.

[mad foetus] 10/5/2020 09:29

Fozzie AAU is worth a gander imo. Nice chart, debt free, JV being finalised and some good resources still to be exploited

[riggerbeautz] 10/5/2020 09:26

Wan G and R’s was very good article, gives me pause for thought on oil which I’ve been largely avoiding for several years, bar an odd couple of foray’s. As for gold predictions!

[gold finger 1] 10/5/2020 09:21

mad foetus

I agree we have been kept in the dark here since we heard about things going on with the government almost a year ago.Since then we have only been fed the bare minimum.

I have been looking for a few more junior mining companies over the last few day, as
the wife has some money coming her way she want to invest.
I have to say its impossible to find one that imo that could better AAZ. Most are at all time highs or resent all time highs. AAZ has to rise 42% to get to all time high.So unless we have a problem in the background which i don't believe there is, AAZ has 42% just to catch up with the rest. So i would be mad not to invest that extra money in here for her. Just depends on if the share price is still anywhere near this bargain price when the finally release her money. Bloody pension companies just don't like you transferring money out off them, this has been going on for six months now.It took four month for the company to agree to transfer her deferred pension. Now they are waiting for disinvestment of her additional voluntary contribution fund before they can proceed with the payment and transfer to her sipp.

[fozzie] 09/5/2020 22:16

Wan thank you for the link to G and R's latest market commentary, you were right it's a long read but certainly worth the time. Seems odd that they see oil as a major opportunity, certainly gives me some comfort in maintaining positions in JSE, PTAL, SQZ, RRE and TXP. Precious metals is where they see the real action though. I have gold well covered with POG, AAZ, CNG, TSG, RSG and HUM. Anybody got any thoughts on other precious metal shares/funds worth looking into?

[riggerbeautz] 09/5/2020 20:49

B.t.w last 2 weekends been checking physical trade prices on P.M’s and I conclude they are mental right now, in theory everything is being overpaid whether it be by the Kilo, Oz or sovereign. Proof rates are ludicrous and some are off loading into this rise. Time will tell whether that is the case but many are out of kilter with spot.

[riggerbeautz] 09/5/2020 20:44

Wan glad you are/have been enjoying the book, there’s a lot of good stuff in there.

Besides putting up a new gate and staining it, last 2 days I’ve been reading another that is far lighter to digest, sometimes humorous containing trader stories by Robbie Burns, “trade like a shark”. It’s more an every day traders book, that Robbie has picked up from his seminars with odd reference to the “greats”. Google it and see what you think, I quite enjoy his light style but he’s not for everyone.

Next week I’m onto Schiff’s book I think. You probably wonder why I read these books having read them before? Time, simply time, it’s like doing refresher courses and pays to hone your thoughts and iron out ill discipline. Always pick up good lessons.

[callmebwana] 09/5/2020 18:49

Bumpa strange you mention Oil.
I have been looking at PFC. The share price used to be over £10.
I think Pogue still holds it. I took profits there a few years ago. That is where Pogue and me met.

Wan the edge ? Could it be the Crona Virus right now and Gold ?
No1- is the virus. What better Co.then AVCT? There are many like 4D etc. Witch one is the best positioned?
N0 2 -Regarding gold? I hold AAZ,POG,PUR and TSG.
I have tried to cover my investment that way
NAI. Just my own way of investing.
I buy in when the trend has set in. I mentioned POG, Icould have bought cheaper but I waited.
I am not invested in Oil at the moment but may do so in the future.