Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bumpa33] 23/10/2018 18:07

Stocks are for trading, both ways. You can make a hell of a lot of money in a bear market - as long as you leave your emotions out of it.

[cflather2000] 23/10/2018 17:20

I've only been investing for about a year, Wan. Quite interested to see how this might go!We're going to experience a bear market at some point, I suppose. I just hope this isn't the biggy!Good news is that gold appears still to have haven status. I was worried crypto and the dollar may have replaced it

[sparkey_two] 23/10/2018 17:09

Quite happy for it to sit until my dividend is reinvested, post that shoot up please.

[wanobi] 23/10/2018 17:05

thanx Mattjos, in my current situation I hope you are right... cheers Wan

[mad foetus] 23/10/2018 16:26

Very disappointing over the last 10 days when FRES is up over10% by comparison. I feel the price is being held back, as it was at 40.

[bumpa33] 23/10/2018 16:17

I’d expect Trump to come out and try and take ownership of this, as he has been the one taking the credit for it on the way up (even though he called it a massive bubble when he wasn’t in office).

What he can’t control though are markets in the rest of the world.

[bumpa33] 23/10/2018 16:14

Wanobi - you’re welcome. We are heavily oversold, but the markets continue to look extremely weak. I’d measure the S&P and Nasdaq rather than the Dow, more representative.

[wanobi] 23/10/2018 15:40

Bumpa, knock out 24K, then we're looking at 18K for next support, knock that out and we're at 16K ish,,,,, YIKES..... only positive right now is that RSI looks oversold,,, but can of course go a lot further down.... as you say, interesting times ahead!!!

Thanx for making me take a good look at this...

24K needs to hold...

cheers
Wan

[wanobi] 23/10/2018 15:35

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mr roper] 23/10/2018 14:09

Gold shifting

[mattjos] 23/10/2018 14:03

Making sure all the buys are delayed to the tape

[bozzy_s] 23/10/2018 13:30

16768 "We have previously erroneously considered an interim dividend for 2018 as a final one for the year with current estimates fixing for that mistake"

Thanks Mattjos. Absolute bloody amateurs at share price Angel. I guess that clears up their 'double next year' dividend prediction.

Super gold price movement today.

[lefrene] 23/10/2018 13:28

The trick is to owe the Bank so much money that the Bank becomes frightened you won't pay. I guess that's the position of Italy right now, and indeed perhaps that's why gold is rising? All good for AAZ, can't be too long before another positive rns :¬)

[cinoib] 23/10/2018 13:15

Perked, well ou could say that as is up $17 I write.Hence we are now blue

[highly geared] 23/10/2018 13:12

Keep an eye on Italy. Another much bigger Euro crisis brewing whilst everyone is fixated on Brexit. Let’s see if Brussels creates a catastrophe of its own making with EU central bank holdings of Italian debt and Italian insistence to spend its way out of largesse and breach EU budget deficit rules....Italy has all the ingredients to set off the next world crash and is perhaps why gold has perked up ?

[basem1] 23/10/2018 13:07

What's just happened 70.25 to 73 on the bid in the blink of an eye

[cinoib] 23/10/2018 12:15

2Sporrons,
well put laddy, i cud na put it better mi sen. Now the dow futures are a little less dramatic at 254 down. but pog is holding.

[2sporrans] 23/10/2018 12:03

JB

Whilst nobody can predict where the POG is heading with any certitude this doesn't preclude one garnering at least a basic understanding of its key drivers at a given time or over a period of weeks or months.

We know that the strengthening $ has been/is a major driver in the selling of gold and the speculative positions thereof.
A less potent but important driver in the buying over recent months has been some large central bank purchases of gold.
There's far more drivers than these of importance which is what makes POG predictions so hard to make. The potency of these drivers varies according to economic, political and other circumstances.
None the less, to extent there are big changes in the key drivers, those concerned for the POG are bound to note these and their implications.

I expect all AAZ investors have harboured at least a little concern over the substantial fall in the POG since April; from a plateau around $1350/oz down to the recent lows of ~$1190/oz.
That is after all $160/oz of margin.
So, to see the recent stabilisation of the POG around its lows, followed by the sharp rally over the past week, ongoing now, is worthy of note.

Sure, this rally may fizzle out in a week or 3; short covering isn't an enduring driver and positions may be renewed when the rally loses steam.
But it may be that other key drivers are/will-be coming into play to support the POG.
To extent they are they will be welcomed by AAZ investors and i would prefer to be aware of them.

Your prediction of "Not much change" may well turn out to be near the mark JB.
After all, the POG has snaked along, pretty much in a sideways trend - albeit with several 10%+ deviations from the mean - over the past 6 years, as this graph shows:



The blue line - for basket of non$ currencies - does suggest that if the effect of $ appreciation is stripped out, the 6 year tend is actually a gently rising one.
Maybe, when the $, as it will, enters a period of sustained weakness, we will enjoy an upward tending POG over that duration.
This doesn't look likely to happen until well into 2019, at earliest, but this doesn't preclude either the anticipation of it or other key drivers kicking in hard.
Granted, these cut both ways but I'd sooner be aware of them than nay.

[jbravo2] 23/10/2018 10:55

If I had an extra share for each time I'd heard assurances on the price of gold and how it was about to smash through "x" then I'd own most of the company :D
Turns out no one really knows and I'll stick with my prediction of not much change.

[cinoib] 23/10/2018 10:51

Dow futures off over 360 and pog when I looked last was up $12.90 at $1235.60 ask.

[mattjos] 23/10/2018 10:50

We have previously erroneously considered an interim dividend for 2018 as a final one for the year with current estimates fixing for that mistake. The revision means 2018e dividend yield should by 10.4% as opposed to previous 4.6%. Following years are little changed and the revision does not affect our DCF and EV/EBITDA multiples based valuation.

[bleepy] 23/10/2018 10:49

$1250 pog before week is out... nailed on I reckon.

[mattjos] 23/10/2018 10:48

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 73p, Mkt Cap £83m – Sterling rate for the maiden dividendBUY – 84pThe Company announced the sterling exchange rate for the maiden dividend payment due on 8 November 2018.The interim dividend to be paid amounts to 3USc or 2.2864p at the 1.3121 exchange rate.This amounts to $3.4m in interim dividend payments.Conclusion: Using our FCF estimates for H2/18 would imply 10.4% annual dividend yield for 2018e on the average share price for the year (49.3p). The yield comes in at 6.3% for 2019e highlighting upside potential to the current share price of 72.5p.The team is actively engaged in the extensive exploration programme launched this year that is due to provide a series of catalysts to the share price moving forwards including maiden mineral resources/reserves at Gadir as well as results from exploration works across other targets at the Gedabek and Ordubad contract areas.