Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 18/10/2018 21:23

Yes, I think that's spot on, thechurch3333. I came to the same conclusion.

[thechurch333] 18/10/2018 21:10

I think the "doubling of the dividend next year" comment from share price Angel relates to the fact there will be two dividend payments next calendar year vs only one this year. This is backed up by their recent flash numbers that show FCF lower in 2019 due to the tax charge.
I don't know how closely the company is going to keep to its 25% payout ratio - they didn't with the first dividend. Looking at share price Angel numbers again, I think they may be expecting 3 cents dividend for each of the next three payments. Either that or the dividend will be lower next year.
Am happy to be proved wrong, but that's my interpretation of the share price Angel forecasts.

[mattjos] 18/10/2018 21:07

this is both the frustrating & exciting thing about this share.

Frustrating in all that we can all clearly see that it is worth a helluva lot more than todays price, based solely on what we know now, & impatience is a natural human trait.

Exciting in that we all logically understand that it will keep trending upwards as the market does not let a bargain like this persist for ever, particularly once a metric such as a dividend is announced to aid true price discovery ... + we have good reason to believe that there are still several further developments in the pipeline that should further elevate the true value.

As exciting as a huge £1 rise in one day might be, such rises always then unwind over the following 6-12 months. This time around we are just gradually trudging upwards at a nice steady pace (shaking out the impatient & the traders) yet, never once getting ahead of true value .. this is much more enduring in terms of price stability going forward.

That 80p ceiling will go soon enough. There may be a chunk sat there on sale right now but, given the inexorable price appreciation & then the right news item ... it will get gobbled up in a day, max. That will be a big volume event and, for several reasons, will then become a very, very strong support level for the future.
Even those arriving now should be able to see how buying under 80p should be safe in the future + receive a dividend.
Keep nibbling

[wanobi] 18/10/2018 21:00

courtesy of Brasso3 on the mattjos thread, many thanx Cheers Wan

[mattjos] 18/10/2018 20:42

GBPUSD getting hammered again today on BREXIT woes... looking like circa 1.3125 average during this five-day monitoring period for the divi $:£ calculation.

3c ÷ 1.3125 = 2.2857p / share

2.2857 ÷ 75p = 3.047% dividend yield for the first 6 months of the year. If Q4 repeats Q3 performance then, I would expect free cash flow in H2 to be better than in H1.
I am working on full year dividend of 6.5c (3.5c / share for the second half)

Over 6% yield for the full year based on 75p purchase price today.

sp should move up towards £1 based on FY18 dividend &, if share price Angel are in any way correct regards a near doubling of the divi next year (figures clearly indicate this is payable and well covered) then, £2 based on FY19 dividend.

Still much more upside in the share price, imo.

Shame you cannot utilise T20 function in ISA's .... fingers crossed we are still under 80p in three weeks time :-)

[wanobi] 18/10/2018 20:30

cheers mattjos, yes you did, thanx, will do, cheers Wan

[mattjos] 18/10/2018 20:20

not bad wanobi .. I did try and warn you in a post earlier that ARS was not in the best of positions. likely to be some imminent dilution. Suggest you remain watching for now

[wanobi] 18/10/2018 19:50

MrR, maybe the tinniest of gaps here;


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


cheers
Wan

[mr roper] 18/10/2018 19:37

Is there a gap around 5.5p wanobi?

[wanobi] 18/10/2018 19:18

ARS - could be a bounce tomorrow, hopefully, else straight down to 2.5p....


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

that's if these pesky chart / TA mean anything at all,,,, beginning to doubt it :-(

Interesting for an L-plate driver to watch and learn from,,, but, I do feel for those heavily invested as of yesterday in ARS...

Best wishes, Wan

[yasx] 18/10/2018 19:14

Mattjos,

XAU/CNY tells me that on the balance of probability gold revisits lower levels - but, I will watch the tape and see how it unravels. The 38.2 Fib retracement of 1370-1165 is just below the 1250 level so will perhaps get resistance there.
Intuitive sense is that a strong move higher from recent lows is not ordinarily catapulted from a base of the form we had. I still think we shortly go lower before higher. Will see.

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Re: lefrene18 Oct '18 - 15:13 - 16687 of 16693

bleepy a short while ago in a café the bill came to £15.40p. I made the mistake of offering the 20ish girl a £20 note followed by the 40p, "No, no," she said, "I already have the £20". She refused the 40p and then followed it with £4 60p of shrapnel! I think mental arithmetic must have stopped circa 1972?
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That one made me chuckle.

[mattjos] 18/10/2018 17:28

getting interesting on Gold now ... will the Specs be brave and add more shorts? or, will they bottle it and close/cover them?
Given the record net short position they hold as of last week's COT report, there is going to be growing unease & what are the Commercials up to? Adding to their unusually net long positon? ... I think $1,250/$1,260 will soon be printed.

Not quite £7 bleepy but, I can see £6

[callmebwana] 18/10/2018 17:15

TERROPOL the gentleman from India was named Gupta. He introduced the Decimal point,
I believe.Bleepy can blame Mr. Gupta.

[bleepy] 18/10/2018 17:09

Haha...going to knock a few golf balls down the range, clear the brain fog hopefully.

Still way way undervalued probably by a decimal point out long term... I think Mattjos was alluding to a few days ago with long term target.

[king suarez] 18/10/2018 16:36

Yes, some bad news on ARS this morning. Managed to sell at 8p so not a complete disaster for me. Instinct seems to have been correct so far... there are always surprises in the market (good and bad!).

Think there will likely be a placing now at ARS since the BFS has been delayed. Frustrating, oh well!

[wanobi] 18/10/2018 16:30

ARS - oops, my post, 790, break out, hmm, I got that completely wrong :-) mattjos it's getting near your 5-6p target buy price, will you be taking the plunge? Cheers all, thanx Wan

[terropol] 18/10/2018 16:20

Is all those 0s confusing people...
The Romans did without it.
I think It was a gentleman from India who came with the O idea...

BLEEPY blame him...

[lefrene] 18/10/2018 16:15

Cel, the mistake was in not offering the 40p first, then allowing a pause while the girl worked out how much more she needed, and then proffering the £20 note. That way I would have got the intended fiver back!

I was hoping we would have left 75p behind by now AAZ remains ridiculously cheap, but cheered up when I calculated that on my average price the 2.3p divi is a 5.6% yield for the half year. :¬)

[celeritas] 18/10/2018 16:04

lef, had that issue loads of times. Don't confuse them.
You can turn round now bleepy.

[lefrene] 18/10/2018 15:13

bleepy a short while ago in a café the bill came to £15.40p. I made the mistake of offering the 20ish girl a £20 note followed by the 40p, "No, no," she said, "I already have the £20". She refused the 40p and then followed it with £4 60p of shrapnel! I think mental arithmetic must have stopped circa 1972?

I wonder if we will see any more 100k trades at the end of today? Hopefully this type of buying is coming from a fund manager who knows he is on to a good thing, and he won't have to wait long to confirm it when the next rns arrives.

[bleepy] 18/10/2018 15:04

Oops was thinking 4p in my head when multiplying, back to school for me, thanks Mattjos, I’ll stand in the corner for 20mins.

[mattjos] 18/10/2018 14:47

Not when I was at school bleepy:

70,000 * £1 = £70,000
70,000 * 10p = £7,000
70,000 * 1p = £700
70,000 * 0.4p = £280