Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jbravo2] 25/5/2018 10:37

Well done fz.
I think St Brides are, at last, starting to pull their weight

[bmcb5] 25/5/2018 10:12

I bought some of these yesterday. Small position so far, but it will grow. Still doing my research, but i like to dip my toe in early, as an incentive to do the legwork.

[abbotslynn] 25/5/2018 10:10

Keep on adding POG will only rise

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 10:09

lol ... might be stretching it a bit at this stage lefrene but, north of 80p I'd certainly agree with

[lefrene] 25/5/2018 10:08

Mattjos, if there was anything "normal" here the price would be North of 200p! :¬)

[mattjos] 25/5/2018 09:51

Seller has been totally absent from the last 3 auctions now, which is quite different from the last 6 months of trading ... are we finally back to a 'normal' position whereby open market supply/demand will govern the price?

[yasx] 25/5/2018 01:19

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Bumpa3313 Mar '18 - 08:45 - 11966 of 13232
0 1 0
rota - no point, i've had a go at them previously - they are truly moronic.

Only way is get the company to ditch them. If anyone has Bill Morgans ear, tell him to look at Asiamet Resources for an example of how far great PR can push a great company.
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Chuckle chuckle. So, we have a two bit contributor on a bulletin Board seeking to advise a Co that has a Board comprised of a chap who held one of the most senior positions in the Iranian Foreign Office as well as a Non Exec that was within earshot of the Head of State of the most powerful economy in the world.

But, somehow these chaps know nothing of PR and require assistance from Bumpa. Chuckle chuckle.

Only one moronic fool here....Off you go!

[yasx] 25/5/2018 01:16

NBumpa,

Firstly, you are not welcome on this thread - I respectfully refrained from commenting on the other thread since I distanced myself from overly optimistic soi disant Co. cheerleaders who only allow a jaundiced assessment of affairs. I cheerfully suggest you migrate elsewhere.

As for your twaddle, well, that is all it is. The thesis that share price Angel are deliberately suppressing favourable comment due to an alleged derisory fee structure is palpably absurd. Even if that were true, it is not the fault of the 'moronic' PR as you previously referred to it on the other thread, but, the fault of the Co. for retaining them. share price A do not have a gun pointing at the Board of AAZ insisting that they revert to them, they can readily access any broker they wish. The Board are a highly experienced bunch, both the Exec Board as well as the Non Exec element, with some having held very senior political positions in the past. Such characters are doyens of PR and it does not need a numpty like you to advise them (as you recently indicated on the other thread) that they should use the services of someone you know.

The reason the commentary from share price A is subdued is simply because of what they are being fed by the Board of AAZ - period. Do not blame the messenger....

Close the door on your way out.

[yasx] 25/5/2018 00:17

There is a lot of twaddle on the other thread (save for one or two exceptions) - but, I do find very useful the commentary by 2Sporrans, both in relation to AAZ as well as gold and matters pertaining to global markets.

[2sporrans] 25/5/2018 00:13

"On the open pit we still think we have a few years of mine life, maybe four at the minimum," ....
Not seen this stated explicitly, post 2017 drilling results until now!!

Going back to Q1 2017, there was a school of thought, amongst pessimists, that the open pit was pretty much exhausted. Clearly not so.

Ok... so for H2 there's a forecast [probably conservative] for 2,200T of copper [concentrate] production through the 2nd, Flotation Plant production stream.
This pretty much constitutes the open pit production, assuming little stockpile feed.
So, call it 4,000T copper production pa allowing for weak Q1 + odd interruption, for at least 4 years, all in addition to the gold+silver production [Ugur, Gsdir, Gosha] from the AL->SART.
Having just spotted this and its late, tired etc ...not worked out what it's worth ... but one quick guesstimate is given the H2 copper is at least 20% of the 2018 GE target ... mid target 80k-oz....=16k-oz GE @$650 margin [2017 AISC $600/oz, assume av. $1250/oz POG]
That's $10,400,000 net cashflow for H2...over next 4 years $83,200,000 pro-rata net cashflow f/c for open pit copper concentrate production via Flotation [->SART].

We've seen NONE of this stream during Q4,Q1,Q2 [apart from a little from stockpile feed in Q4]. No wonder there's a dividend coming.

As for valuation, the synergy built up over past 4 years and only NOW truly coming into fruition with the 2 streams of production does seem absurdly under priced.
Indeed is it priced in at all?
Put it very simplistically:
$100.mn cost of excellent plant is worth next to nought without the ore to put through it [other than maybe a toll mill].
$50-mn of infrastructure, ditto; in fact worth the square root of f. all absent any ore.
Huge amounts of ore JORCed and all, in the ground, generate 0 cashflow without the COMPATIBLE plant + infrastructure.
But put the 3 together, as well as AAZ now has; then you transform the worth.

It's this transformation that is still woefully underpriced.
I mean, go back pre 2013, there was just heap leaching; no AL, Flotation nor SART.
Hence, e.g. The copper was pretty much worthless....not like $83-mn net cash over 4 years. [The mains elec. + water plant + other investments have also pared down the AISC to $600/oz GE to big up the margin too.]

Apologies for stating the obvious; just it seems to have eluded Mr. Market.

[yasx] 24/5/2018 22:05

Nonsense - the Co broker is paid and fees are not correlated to benign reporting. SPa do not seem to think it is undervalued to the extent, say, readers of the other thread consider it to be. If the house broker struggles to get bullish, that is not normally a good sign - after all, their role is to be as bullish as possible.

[homebrewruss] 24/5/2018 21:52

Maybe it's because AAZ aren't paying share price angel enough (in placing fees)

[celeritas] 24/5/2018 21:41

Yes great article by Daniel Flynn.

Another stand out point is what could be under the open pit.

We are looking at some very promising targets and have now almost tunnelled to below the open pit and underground mine, where we think there is a pretty big resource. We are doing a lot of work to try and get JORC resource done alongside exploring.’

[celeritas] 24/5/2018 21:38

‘One way to look at this is that four years ago we had over $50m worth of debt and we are soon going to be net cash positive. This change means that regardless of what has happened across our operations, our market cap should have increased by $50m over that period purely by having paid all of this debt off. The reality is that our market cap is only just beginning to rise to reflect the fact that we are paying all of this debt off. It has not yet been increased beyond this, meaning the market is essentially saying the value of the business is unchanged over this period. The reality is that over those four years we have added two new mines, completely turned the business around, added processing plants, and vastly improved our prospects. The market is not currently ascribing value to these points, and some of our investors understand that well.’

Keep an eye out

[goodgrief] 24/5/2018 21:33

That might have been the case in the days when you got your stock prices from the FT, but that's ancient history. With smartphones what PI is not going to take a sneaky peek during working hours?

[davidspringbank] 24/5/2018 21:12

What I like, apart from the significant pay down of debt, is this: "All in sustaining cost of gold production further decreased in the lowest quartile to $604 per ounce (2016: $616 per ounce)". So anything we get above $604 oz is pure profit. That gives us a solid floor to accommodate the vagaries of a fluctuating gold price. It is unlikely that the price of gold will go below $1260 this year. That gives us a safety margin of (1260 - 604 = 656 per oz.) And when we can get rid of the remaining debt altogether, we are going to be in an enviable financial position.

All this bodes well for the future.

[yasx] 24/5/2018 21:09

Another poor update from share price Angel - clearly they are not nearly as enthusiastic as retail investors in their assessment. According to their latest model, using EV/EBITDA metrics they compute metrics and suggest a buy rating without a price target (they indicate NAV of around 60p) and that they will soon update the valuation. Given how SPa are very bullish on other companies they cover, their subdued approach as house broker to AAZ suggests whatever AAZ is relaying to them is not overly optimistic. That I suspect will limit institutional involvement going forward and ergo upside.

Retail investors (especially novice punters) prefer volatility and momentum and thus they too may give this a wide berth. A wide spread, lack of coverage by any analyst, negligible institutional interest and a Board that seems satisfied with all that is hardly cause for enthusiasm. Whatever it is that hinders Meyer and Co from becoming ebullient about AAZ I know not, but, for now their stance remains as conservative as it has been for some time.

[crazycoops] 24/5/2018 20:11

That is an excellent piece by Daniel Flynn, thanks for posting the link

[lefrene] 24/5/2018 19:24

I liked the bit where they explain the method of sale of the metals via a Swiis company, and how the Swiss buyer handles the transportation from the mine. I think it was included to reassure potential holders that the product is handled in a predictable and secure manner, ie this is a reliable place to do business.

[mattjos] 24/5/2018 19:06

As evidenced on here and the LSE/III threads, we are still predominantly owned by PI's. Most wont see RNS's until they get home in the evening & therefore buying decisions likely to be made this evening and actioned tomorrow earliest.

[friendzarin] 24/5/2018 18:48

Agree entirely re the Value the Markets.com piece. Excellent P R delivery. When I spoke to Bill at the Mining Capital event he said that ST Brides had a couple of interviews set up for him.I trust this was one of them and they helped with the content as well. From correspondence with them St Brides's have said they are concentrating on raising AAZ's profile in this very important breakthrough year.This is a real tick in the box for Bill and St Brides on that basis and also a further example of how well Bill put his time in London to good use.

[jbravo2] 24/5/2018 18:47

Brilliant results.
Great news on the divi (news by end of Sept)

Crazy low valuation.
What's not to love?!!!!

[mattjos] 24/5/2018 18:24

that is a very good piece homebrewruss .. excellent piece in fact & Bill has hit the nail squarely and firmly on the head with regards valuation.

I am really struggling to see how the market will not shortly bid this into the mid 60p region in short-order based solely on what we know today.

5 months of the year down and Gold & Copper both comfortably exceeding last years average prices .. in fact have been way above them ytd.

The strongest two quarters are yet to get underway and throughout those two quarters we will have both crushers operational independently feeding AL & FL.

Minimum 4 years mine life at Gedabek (based on published resources today) and Ordubad creeping a little closer on the horizon now.


Plenty of ways to value a business but, less than 1 x FY Revs for a profitable & cash generative business, intending to pay a maiden dividend to holders & with a 'moat'(PSA) around it ... that is plain stupidity in anyone's book & simply will not persist now the results are out.