Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 12/6/2018 17:58

the instis have never liked (I think more of case of never fully understood) the PSA that AAZ have with govt. of Az.

SP Angel are arguing that the they do not yet have sufficient data from the company with regards new resources to fully justify a bigger price target.
I have counter-argued that surely the progress the company has made since 'peak debt' and since Ugur was discovered, is plenty sufficient to warrant a sizeable upgrade in target price. share price Angel's hand was recently forced when the divi intent was declared (but there should be much more to come yet).

The analyst at share price Angel is a cautious chap and wont budge from his stance of wanting more data on resources before updating his detailed valuation model

To their credit, in their Nov 15 Note (then price 5p), share price Angel commented:

"The Company expects the PSA rate to increase from 2018 at which point currently outstanding unrecovered capital costs would have been used up. We estimate the balance of unrecovered costs at c.US$100m as of H1/15. Unlike the management, our estimates using SPA metal price and production assumptions indicate the PSA is likely to remain flat at current 12.75% (being 51% of remaining revenue 25% (post deduction of 75% in cost)) through the end of Gedabek mine life in 2023."

& "....We expect the Company to go Net Cash positive in 2018 generating c.US$8-11m in FCF per annum from 2019 until the end of life of the mine in 2022/23"

I agreed with share price Angel at the time with regards the PSA rate & time has proven them to be correct.
In terms of LOM at Gedabek .. I'm sure share price Angel's commentary concerns Open Pit LOM at Gedabek & there is zero consideration given to Underground mining at Gedabek & obviously nothing for Ugur or any other assets.

So, part of me has some sympathy for share price Angel ... they are not going to push the valuation until the drill results are in and analysed and close to, if not at, the JORC Stage .. the company will undoubtedly have the clearest understanding of what they have under their feet but, are not in a position to prove it up to JORC standards as yet.
Now though, we are well past peak debt (close to net cash +ve in fact) & we have the plant, equipment, people, data software & skills to get moving on exploration to a satisfactory standard .. as has been the case since pre-IPO days! Only we've built a profitable and sizeable mining enterprise in the interim, currently valued at Zero!

In fact, I think the question I will ask at the AGM is this:

All things being equal as they are today, in terms of shares, structure, location, Behre Dolbear analysis, experience in-country, plant & equipment etc etc.

At what PRICE would share price Angel set the valuation for AAZ were they responsible for IPO'ng this exact business next week?

I'd wager the answer is greater than today's mkt cap & for me, that's the real issue here right now.

[lefrene] 12/6/2018 16:11

I share your view gutterhead, but feel the AGM might be too soon for them to have decided upon the level of divi, but looking at crazycoops comment, the AGM would be a suitable moment for notifying holders of a change in broker. For whatever reasons share price Angel have failed to get AAZ on the institutional map.

[crazycoops] 12/6/2018 15:59

There has to be a reason, other than sheer incompetence, why share price Angel have not issued an updated note. My guess is that they have been given notice and a new broker will be announced (or a joint broker) - perhaps not until after the AGM. Apart from their appalling coverage, share price Angel have not been able to muster a single institutional investor with a notifiable holding. AAZ is now at the stage where a higher quality broker is required to bring those institutions on board.

[gutterhead] 12/6/2018 15:19

I guess we are hoping for DIV update at AGM so saying the same thing
There are a lot of posters on here who were holders sub 10p (myself included) but have no intention of selling, more like still adding.
I'm pretty sure that posters on this thread account for 10% shareholding and there seems little appetite for selling atm.
I've said before that ironically, the low SP/Valuation of this company holds it back!! it just looks so cheap that the ordinary punter or investor could be forgiven for thinking something is wrong.
I guess the DIV will help in this regard also as its a statement of cash, profit and optimism.
I suppose I'm a bit frustrated currently as thought we would be in 70-80p channels by now
value will out I'm sure

[lefrene] 12/6/2018 14:54

More likely it depends on how the divi shapes up. An investment is a combination of assets, income and future prospects. For anyone who got into this sub 10p, I imagine that they feel they have been rewarded for their risk, and may take their returns at this level and move on? But by any measure this business just looks cheap, I take the view that there is a good deal more mileage to come.

[jbe81] 12/6/2018 14:08

Some good sized trades today

[celeritas] 12/6/2018 10:39

I agree a lot of directors spout plenty of rubbish. Like you I've rang and emailed quite a few companies over the years. My list of whom I term as honest decent directors is very limited. Most are self serving only interested in themselves courtesy of huge stock options.

If its only down the road maybe try an attend as you'll find Bill so down to earth, he cant be bothered with ebullience, he calls a spade a spade.
Reza is the kind of CEO you would want most companies to have along with Stephen Westhead, its a really good team.

[yasx] 12/6/2018 10:20

Terropol,

Very kind of you to ask - health permitting, I will.

Kind Regards

[terropol] 12/6/2018 10:19

YASX, come for a coffee.
Be nice to meet you.
I am coming all the way from Derby, and have done for the last 12 years...

[yasx] 12/6/2018 10:08

Celeritas,

You are right - but, what might be a stroll for some might be considered a long march for others. I simply have little energy these days. I may well however send a deputy with sufficient experience...

As for seeing through Co. officianados, well, I invariably begin from a position of treating everything any Director of a Co states as overly enthusiastic twaddle and take it from there. It is in my experience most certainly a better stance than taking things the other way around. But, one can do all that on the telephone as I do on a daily basis and have done for many years. One gets used to hearing the same banalities, and when pressed, Directors tend to demonstrate an elusive approach. There are exceptions to the rule....

[celeritas] 12/6/2018 10:02

yasx, so you have a holding in a company with the agm just down the road from you but you cant be bothered to go.

One not skewed by ebullience from Co Executives.

Sure you would see through any ebullience.

[yasx] 12/6/2018 10:01

As for AAZ, it continues to be one to trade the gyrations - those who suggest this is not possible since lack of liquidity will prevent you getting back in are simply talking cobblers. One could quite easily have sold, say, 500,000 shares at the peak of the clearly defined top of the channel at just below 55p and very easily have bought back the same for around the current price or lower - in the process saving 30k to 40k.

Anyway, for now this remains undervalued on what is known in the public domain (it is important to stress the latter point). But, mindful of the fact that the house broker cannot muster together a note to support the shares (especially given that the same broker cheerfully promotes all sorts of dud Co's with reckless enthusiasm), and the fact that the Co is very happy about this state of affairs, indicates to me that there is, at best,no interest from the Co. in seeing the price of the shares appreciate, or, in the alternative, a desire to actually suppress it. You see, it is hardly difficult for the Co. to engage an outfit that would be able to produce a broker note to raise awareness of the positive strides in recent months. They are intentionally seeking to avoid this since they refuse to do anything about it.

Thus, I now am ignoring all the fundamental issues that, on any view, suggest the shares are undervalued - there may well be skeletons in the cupboard, one never knows - this Co operates in a politically risky regime, with a Board comprised of some with strong political backgrounds and those sorts tend to be fairly ruthless in wanting to have it all for themselves and then some. This is now merely a technical play, and while the chart remains intact (and for now it certainly does), I will trade the gyrations. I have retained the bulk of what i have held throughout for some time, but will increasingly look to trade all but a smaller core position

[yasx] 12/6/2018 09:51

Terropol,

Although it is just down the road for me, I am unlikely to attend since I (insofar as possible) try to stay at home. In any event, I am not sure what can be gleaned from an AGM, since I try to maintain an impartial view at all times, one not skewed by ebullience from Co Executives.

[gutterhead] 11/6/2018 17:59

gold at $1300, holding well at this level...

[celeritas] 11/6/2018 13:02

I'm not saying that catsick, just replying to someones question.

[catsick] 11/6/2018 11:22

I think the beafort situation is zero relevance to AAZ , it is infuriating to see what PWC have done but to think that any weaknesses in the aaz share price is due to this is delusional. The driver of the price action will be news of exploration and results of mining over the longer term. Getting hung up on beafort is irrelevant.

[celeritas] 11/6/2018 11:11

Try this one Cflather, gives you the gist of the ft article.

[lefrene] 11/6/2018 11:05

Thank you Celeritas, the desire of PWC to get their fee's from Beaufort doesn't help AAZ holders.

[cflather2000] 11/6/2018 10:19

Hi. I don't have an ft subscription. What's going on with pwc?

[gutterhead] 11/6/2018 10:04

a move to 50p plus would be good this week-this share tends to challenge a level a few times before then moving swiftly pass it-on that basis we could see 60p quite quickly.
looking forward to the agm on 29th and maybe some update just before or after.

[terropol] 11/6/2018 09:35

BZ, there was some news in the press over the week end to say no fees would be taken from investors.
Not sure if Shares will be sold or transferred.