Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 16/5/2018 18:34

Tied up with overseas business guests all week so, missed the fun & games here but, fortunately got some limits filled on the drop so, can't complain.Just looks to me like we broke out a bit too early ahead of results next week.

[bumpa33] 16/5/2018 18:31

funny that, Cantors told me they were trying to mop up some on the cheap after dropping it 9% on small size.

[modform] 16/5/2018 17:01

Nothing to do with the mm , they don't give a damn what the share price is, they are there to make money through the spread.

[mad foetus] 16/5/2018 16:25

Bought some at sub 42.

[lefrene] 16/5/2018 16:10

Bearing in mind that this is the AiM market I can only conclude that we are due some good news tomorrow!

[celeritas] 16/5/2018 14:00

Great if we get a dividend, gold is now more expensive in GBP.

[2sporrans] 16/5/2018 13:14

Yes, the low AISC is the main reason AAZ investors can feel sanguine in the face of modest POG falls.
More than this, the whole financial status of the company has been radically improved with the reduction in net debt from fully $50-mn to maybe about $10-mn [rescheduled at 7% v 12% previously] right now, along with growing cashflow. So a bit of pinching to the cashflow due to a trimming in the POG can be readily accommodated without compromising the essential functioning of the business.
e.g. Should the POG drop to say $1250/oz av. for H2, maybe.... we are looking at a deferral of [prospective] dividends or trimming of them should they arrive [maybe not :0) ]; we are not looking at e.g. cuts to exploration & development

During 2016, AAZ took out a hedge against falling POG, to kick in at $1200/oz.
That did activate towards end of 2016 and ran into early 2017 when it expired.
But in any case POG was rising back up above $1200/oz then.
So, AAZ were happy enough with POG > $1200/oz back then, when the debt repayments were pretty onerous - in contrast to now. + AISC a fair bit higher - above $600/oz back then, if I recall right.

Guess that one of the nuggets of info. the 2017 FY results should provide is an update on the AISC. It's going back a while [over a year even?] that ~$550/oz figure relates to.
With the Ugur figures dominating, could be the updated AISC comes in even lower; think the CAPEX may even have moderated a bit since the Tailings, water and Ugur dev. incld. road expend. period. + the rising production/revenue will 'cover' the fixed costs with more to spare for the variable ones.
Cautiously optimistic on this one.

Bring on the crusher and a second production train through Flotation->SART for the copper. This will be one of the 'stories' to follow closely through H2.
+ of course any resource updates. Plenty to come there.

[lefrene] 16/5/2018 12:40

Indeed gold falls as the $ strengthens, and I dare say quite a lot of gold is held with borrowed money, so those at the margins will cash out. But the reason for holding gold as a hedge against collapsing fiat currencies remains intact. Debts in 'funny money' created by printing bonds now runs into many trillions, there's plenty of opportunity for something to go horribly wrong. Gold remains a globally recognised currency of intrinsic value.

As Terropol notes, AAZ has a production cost below $600, a margin in excess of 100%. It would be helpful to see some figures, and an update on resources, a divi would be most welcome too. It looks stunningly cheap, some numbers would help to confirm this perception.

[terropol] 16/5/2018 11:47

Hello from the south of Italy.
With Gold down on US dollar strength we get more pounds x oz on our year end profits. Should not make much difference to us. And also to remember our cost of production is below $600. Plenty flesh on our bone.

[2sporrans] 16/5/2018 10:31

The v. recent fall in the POG is a bit of a concern; the technical picture is now pretty bearish with the spot breaking down below the 200day ma.
But for AAZ investors can be shrugged off for now.

As for the reasons, start with:



Clearly, though a bit of the $POG fall in May can be attributed simply to a rising S - the chart's blue line tracks POG priced in basket of non-$US currencies - the majority of the POG fall isn't down to currency movements.
Back in April the fall in the POG could be almost entirely explained by the strengthening $US.

So, why the sharp fall in POG past few days?

I'd say it's primarily driven by resurgent expectations of faster US rate rises and rising bond yields globally accompanied increased perceptions that recent slowing in synchronised global growth [esp. marked in Europe] are temporary and growth akin to 2017 will resume for 2018.
A strong global economy with moderate to low inflation reduces the appeal of gold for many investors, especially given a rising rate/yield/dividend etc environment which raises the opportunities for returns elsewhere at various levels of risk.

Imho, there's no great change afoot; the POG may well fall further for a while but a crash looks improbable. Looks pretty even odds whether the next several months turn out bearish or the bullish trend resumes.
So much does depend on where the $ is heading.
Sure, US rates will be rising ....but the yawning twin deficits will remain, notwithstanding anything the Trump team come up with.

[cyberbub] 15/5/2018 21:08

You would think that with dictators from Washington to Ankara to Tehran to Beijing all rattling their sabres, that the price of gold would be able to withstand a bit of USD appreciation??

[mattjos] 15/5/2018 18:52

Strength in US$ & oil price

[terropol] 15/5/2018 18:50

What spooked gold this afternoon??

[notagain3] 15/5/2018 17:00

Thanks TERROPOL

[notagain3] 15/5/2018 17:00

Thanks TERROPOL

[terropol] 15/5/2018 14:23

Should be 29th june Notagain3.

[notagain3] 15/5/2018 13:54

Do we have a date yet for the AGM? I looked through the resent RSN’s but I could not see it.

[mattjos] 15/5/2018 12:25

kind of like this:

43.5p is also the 13 day EMA value and AAZ tends to move to that trend line.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[ilostthelot] 15/5/2018 11:43

Can you post a chart to illustrate that please Matt?

[mattjos] 15/5/2018 10:54

Buyer is just stepping back to see if the seller will drop his price. it's canny game he's playing over the last couple of months

[mattjos] 15/5/2018 09:43

Just a backtest of the 43.5p breakout line as far as I am concerned. No volume in it

[lefrene] 15/5/2018 09:38

I guess somebody somewhere wants some cash?

[jbe81] 15/5/2018 09:22

MMs playing games here this am, any buying and this is shooting up.