Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jbravo2] 01/11/2017 15:59

@fz. :D Yes it's funny how he doesn't quite hear my questions.


@zhockey. Lots.

[friendzarin] 01/11/2017 15:10

JB Looks like you are having a long conversation from ship to quayside ;)

[jbe81] 01/11/2017 15:05

Will be interesting if we get a big rise in gold this week.

[zhockey] 01/11/2017 15:05

Jbravo, What recoverable reserves of each do you think they have?

[jeanesy] 01/11/2017 14:26

I know that the trade was delayed thanks. It was pretty generous if it was a sell as the sell price at the time was 30.1 .I think they must be desperate for stock . Its a good job for them that all is quiet atmo and no-one is buying.

[jbravo2] 01/11/2017 13:49

@zhockey. So you think most tons of ore left in Gedabek have more value of copper contained than gold from now on?
:D


@jeanesy. It was a trade from yesterday again. Looks like it may have been a sale to me. Perhaps it provided half the supply for the 2x150k buys.
They want more stock still. You can sell 100k over 30p.



@anyone else...
Azerbaijan is predicting total gold production of 175koz next year, rising to over 195koz by 2022
:)

:)

[jeanesy] 01/11/2017 13:29

I see that another 150k buy has gone through.Is someone accumulating, disguised as a sell, as slightly below mid ?

[zhockey] 01/11/2017 13:24

2SP, Any investment in sulphide processing will reflect the ultimate return in revenues. Yes they could invest in small iterative phases but the return would obviously be lower.

JBravo, The Gedebek pit in my view is now a copper mine with gold BP. Of course exploration arround and below could change this view.

[bleepy] 01/11/2017 11:47

Given the rapid rate of exploration we have another 8wks of progress before they announce programme for 2018 and beyond.

[bleepy] 01/11/2017 11:31

So, in 8wks we will be told....

Further information regarding exploration programmes during 2018 and beyond will be announced by the end of Q4 2017.

[bleepy] 01/11/2017 11:29

They have stated they are exploring adjacent to Ugur anticipating expanding that resource.
+ reconnaissance sampling of surface outcrop has provided 34 samples with positive results for gold and copper mineralisation at the "Soyudlu" area, some two kilometres from the tailings dam facility.
+ The Gedabek contract area hosts many targets of different styles of mineralisation, which are being assessed in order to prioritise future exploration programmes. It is planned to prepare an annual three year work programme to dovetail into the Company's gold and copper production profile. This demonstrates the geological opportunities available to the Company for further evaluation. Further information regarding exploration programmes during 2018 and beyond will be announced by the end of Q4 2017.

[2sporrans] 01/11/2017 11:13

Zhockey
Though I think you're right to point out that the deeper ores
will be predominantly sulphide and additional CAPEX MAY be required to process enough to
sustain 70k+ GE production say 3 years out, the spend will be more modest and incremental than
seems to me you are anticipating. Like JB just posted.

There's plenty of oxide to fuel 70k or higher production for at least 2 years.
Ugur alone covers this.
The following scenario-sketch seems very plausible to me:
2018 - Net debt [less Reza loan] paid down to ~$10-mn. Production mostly Gold oxide ore, some sulphide as currently. [I expect 8ok-pa GE can be achieved].
2019 - Expand Flotation capacity; add on 2 or more tanks.
All the while, stockpile much of the [copper rich] sulphide ore being mined [some will be processed via the Flot->SART train; more when the crusher bottleneck is eliminated.] Parallel Flot->SART production rises as does total - 100kGE pa maybe.
2020 onwards, ramp up production of sulphide [gold but copper rich] ores; continue with AL->SART train oxide ore production, to extent more oxide ores come on stream; heap leaching also continues in parallel.
2020 Onwards, also option to develop [pure] copper play resources which will require very substantial CAPEX for copper geared processing facility. Probably start in relatively modest way, e.g. develop close to plant reserves like Bittibulag and establish plant in proportion. Later can scale up the proven model.

Guess you don't think something like this is likely or at least fraught with problems?

[jbravo2] 01/11/2017 10:41

lol
I thought you might

Erm. The oxide? No idea. Not much I'd imagine. Probably get a bit more as the wall is pushed back.

Are you still saying Gedabek has been written off?

:D

[zhockey] 01/11/2017 10:28

JB, yes I argue that. What is the Gedebek oxide reserve now?

[jbravo2] 01/11/2017 10:14

@robo. Nothing especially unusual is it? Up $10, down $10. small stuff. It seems to be caught back in the 1250-1300 range with little sign of breaking out above 1300 really despite all the $2,000 predictions
:D
As Celeritas says so long as the average for the year is >1200 then we're laughing.

[bleepy] 01/11/2017 10:09

Just two of many extractions from the last Rns pointing the way forward....

* We are also increasing the capacity of our tailings dam to support the expansion by raising wall 12mtrs.

* "Soyudlu" area, this area was initially investigated as part of the planning to situate future expansion of the tailings dam.

[robo15] 01/11/2017 10:04

What's with PM's today, any ideas ?

[jbravo2] 01/11/2017 09:59

Let's have a quick look. Here's what you stated. Empty and worthless? Granted, not those words.
Just "written of [sic] their main gold reserve"
You gonna argue thats materially different?



zhockey25 Apr '17 - 13:54 - 7391 of 9916 0 0
Jbravo, not long ago you were predicting a step up in production and great news ahead. The share price is down 60% and the company have practically written of their main gold reserve. Not really all that great is it?

[celeritas] 01/11/2017 09:55

zhockey, at least you keep your corner however unfounded.
I have no doubt if aam goes on a run you'll be telling us you bought and sold again at a much higher price.

Bravo, you are not the only one who's noticed the unusual trades over the last year. It takes a long time to build a large position in aam, does make me wonder.

[zhockey] 01/11/2017 09:46

Jbravo your second paragraph is inaccurate, those were not my words.

[bleepy] 01/11/2017 09:42

Not forgetting the recent processing plant reconfiguration highlighted savings of $7mln/yr.

Rather listen to this guy than two bit traders.....

Anglo Asian CEO Reza Vaziri commented: "We have been extremely busy on the ground in Azerbaijan in regards to exploration. We recently reported increased production for quarter three of 2017 with the commencement of mining at Ugur. Having spent time in 2017 optimising the extraction of gold and gold-copper ores from the Gedabek open pit, we now look forward to recommencing mining to contribute to production in the first quarter of 2018 with the enhanced knowledge of the mineralisation that these exploration activities will provide. We are also increasing the capacity of our tailings dam to support the expansion."

[jbravo2] 01/11/2017 09:27

No, the things that is asinine is your inability to read between the lines, or even just read carefully ALL that is released.

For a start, they didn't shut Gedabek when they said they would. You proclaimed it was empty and worthless yet they continued to produce for another quarter from it, as evidenced by the miniscule amount of stockpile they used.
As with many things, not explicitly stated but obvious if you read the RNS'.
Yes of course they are now producing mainly from oxide ore as that is Ugur. The plan shows it will produce to 2021 with current known ore.
Other mentions though have included a back wall push back for another 7 years from Gedabek, dam and pipeline preparations for plant plant expansion, further tunnelling at Gadir and a tunnel heading to Gedabek. Then theres the other areas highlighted in text from RNS' or in maps. Look carefully!
I mean, really, only a fool or someone spinning for disingenuous intentions can say they're all out in three years.

I wholeheartedly agree that flotation expansion needs to happen. I said it just needed a small delay to allow a little more debt to go. We are now close enough and sure enough prep work is happening.
It needs to happen once we restructure debt or once we get free of the main ATB/GP loan as that frees up $10m/yr. We are now only 9 months from that. Or days if we restructure the loans (as I suspect will happen)
Oh... and investment doesn't need to be massive from now on. Modular expansion of the plant addressing bottlenecks as they occur is now the way to go. Not take on another 50m debt.

Proving up lots of ore just means we depreciate plant etc at a slower rate. I know it therefore needs you to read between the lines and trust to judgement what is in the area but the evidence is plentiful and from many sources.
The last 7 years would have been much more painful if the company had not been able to depreciate so aggressively.



On the plus side. I do find it reassuring that the biggest bear on here says our current price is fair value!
Points to one thing for me.
Share price should be and will head WAYYYYYYYYY higher... and that's even before I consider the unusual buying that has been happening for over 12 months. That won't ever feature in a RNS, so it requires people to make a judgement as to what they think is happening. I've made my judgment so I hold more than I've ever held.

[bleepy] 01/11/2017 09:26

As jbravo2 mentioned read and absorb the full content and potential of rns releases will clearly point where we are heading.


Work at Ugur in Q3 2017 focused on finalising the geological work for mine planning and project construction. The geological team is now assessing the surrounding area for extensions of the Ugur type of mineralisation, and has taken 295 geochemical samples from surface.


Within the Gedabek contract area, reconnaissance sampling of surface outcrop has provided 34 samples with positive results for gold and copper mineralisation at the "Soyudlu" area, some two kilometres from the tailings dam facility. Follow-up geological mapping, alteration mapping and area definition for drilling is planned. This area was initially investigated as part of the planning to situate future expansion of the tailings dam.



It is planned in 2018 to further investigate Bittibulag with geophysical methods to determine the geometry and extent of mineralisation to focus future drilling.


The Gedabek contract area hosts many targets of different styles of mineralisation, which are being assessed in order to prioritise future exploration programmes. It is planned to prepare an annual three year work programme to dovetail into the Company's gold and copper production profile. This demonstrates the geological opportunities available to the Company for further evaluation. Further information regarding exploration programmes during 2018 and beyond will be announced by the end of Q4 2017.



Low cost exploration work also continued at the Ordubad contract licence area in the Nakhchivan region of Azerbaijan. During Q3 2017, 750 metres of road cleaning was completed to reach exploration adits and surface mineralisation at the Shakadara deposit in order to verify the presence of mineralisation as reported in Soviet reports. 604 linear metres of trenching was completed from which 441 samples were collected. Initial results confirm the presence of surface and underground mineralisation of both gold and copper. It is planned to test similar style surface gold-quartz mineralisation at the adjacent Keleki area. On confirmation of this gold mineralisation, the Company will decide on a strategy to fully assess these deposits along with the Piazbashi and Agyurt deposit in the Ordubad area.

[zhockey] 01/11/2017 09:04

Jbravo, those numbers were when they shut Gedebek to develop Ugur and no results were known, hence the risk. It's almost asinine to mention it in that context.

Looking forward, the vast majority of their gold appears to be coming from oxide ore, hence why I see 3 years out being a challenge to maintain levels unless they prove up more oxide ore.

Of course finding more economic oxide would be very positive but I expect the deeper stuff is mostly sulphide.

Bill said two years back that they are becoming a copper miner, although copper production at 3000T a year is not enough. I've said before, my view is that they should invest massively in expanding sulphide processing in order to monitise the large Cu resource and Au BP

[bleepy] 01/11/2017 09:00

Whilst much excitement surrounds the potential below Gedabek open pit let’s not forget the rapid pace of exploration and development work completed thus far at Gadir underground mine....

Gadir

* 2,712 metres of tunnelling that comprised spiral ramp development for production preparation, exploration tunnels at Gadir

* an underground tunnel from Gadir to the deep mineralisation at the northern end below the Gedabek open pit

* Drilling activity for ore extraction planning comprised 48 DD drill-holes with a total of 1,311 metres of BQ diameter, 36 DD drill-holes (HQ/NQ size core) with a total of 2,268 metres completed

* 2,711 metres of sidewall has been geologically mapped

* This work confirms that Gadir can recommence production in Q4 2017 and has provided over 3,250 assays

* Regarding surface extension drilling of the Gadir mine to evaluate further down dip potential, nine core drill-holes totalling 4,007 metres were completed. 2,150 samples have been assayed which has provided results that demonstrate continuity of mineralisation

* To complete the first phase of the tunnel between Gadir and the Gedabek underground mineralisation, some 600 metres of tunnelling has been completed that intersected Gedabek style mineralisation at the end of the tunnel drive. It is further planned to extend this tunnel along the Gedabek mineralisation beneath the backwall of the open pit and to fan drill to assess the mining potential for a Gedabek underground mine. This exploration work is planned for 2018 as underground mining equipment is now being utilised to mine ore at Gadir. The mineralisation target is additional to the current Gedabek open pit reserves.


From the enormous amount of exploration and development work completed to further identify reserve and resource at Gadir they are evaluating further down dip extension from 4,007mtrs of completed surface drilling that provided 2,150 samples demonstrating continuity of mineralisation.

From the above I imagine they can quantify the reserve, resource and present life of Gadir underground mine alongside identifying extension of mineralisation from exploration results.