Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[greendragon777] 18/1/2018 18:51

It certainly wasn't me Paps offloading those shares. On the contrary I've been topping up a good bit over the last few weeks but have pretty much finished now unless the share price falls a bit I might add a tiny bit more.

We'll know our fate pretty soon, I'm stocking up on rice and beans just in case we get a negative result! haha

Roll on the interims.......

[papillon] 18/1/2018 17:40

Only 7 trades today. You could buy below the 20.25p mid price all day. The first 4 trades were presumably all sells @ 20p. The final 3 trades today were presumably all buys below the 20.25p mid price, greendragon. I'd be interested to know why someone appears to have sold 20k shares @ 20p to net £10k before broker commission costs. Are they bears, or do they just see a chance of making a quicker buck elsewhere, or do they just need the cash? We'll never know unless someone claiming to be the seller owns up on this bb.

Fingers crossed that the EASE phase III trial results cause a BOOM in the AMYT share price and not a BUST! I just hope the results come sooner rather than later! I'll either be as happy as a pig in sh*t if it's BOOM, or as sick as a parrot if it's BUST.

[greendragon777] 18/1/2018 17:05

Back to AMYT......mostly sell trades recently but small enough volumes and price holding up. Whether we have to wait 6 or 12 weeks for the interim trial results doesn't really matter....provided we get the right the results! :-)

[greendragon777] 18/1/2018 17:02

O/T @ Paps

Yes it's been a bit of a bloodbath in Cryptos these last few days Paps. I just held tight throughout (or HODL in Crypto speak!). I took a position back in December's crash so I locked in a decent enough price on my holdings which is well in the green now. That said it got very close to my buy in price and the market could have easily tanked further from where it did.

The biggest thread this year will be how the regulators handle the crackdown. The recent fall was mostly attributed to the further crackdown by China and also strong threats by South Korea to ban exchanges but this remains to be seen.

The markets have pretty much been fairly bearish since late December and are still very jittery. I'm actually looking forward to the day when all the scamcoins and useless ICOs are wiped out so that the winners emerge and the technology can progress.

I'm still very much bullish on Cryptos long term, IOTA being the one I am most bullish about. But IOTA's success will be mostly tied to their protocol being adopted by the big IOT players in the market like BOSCH, Philips, Samsung, Microsoft, Volkswagon etc etc most of which are already working with the IOTA foundation on testing IOT projects.

With regards to short term specualtion, it's anyone's guess. It could go up or down 50% in a heartbeat! haha

[papillon] 18/1/2018 14:59

Why 6 weeks, pottermagic? Why not 4 weeks, 5 weeks, 7 weeks, or even 12 weeks? Have you inside info? LOL.

[pottermagic2310] 18/1/2018 14:49

6 weeks and it's BOOM time... or BUST

[papillon] 18/1/2018 13:14

O/T, whilst nothing newsworthy is happening with the AMYT share price Hi greendragon. I see cryptocurrencies have taken a beating recently. Has the bubble finally burst, or have they yet further to fall in the short term? I reckon the latter, bwtfdik?

[papillon] 18/1/2018 12:30

AMYT share price is going sideways in a very tight trading range centred on 20p, hence the very tight Bollinger Bands. Just awaiting the news that will trigger the big breakout of those tight BB's.

[diamondstar1] 17/1/2018 20:34

Hi thecynical1, I am not 100% sure what you are referring to, but I assume this is about Amryt expanding its manufacturing capacity for Episalvan.
As you are likely to know, Amryt purchased Birken (who developed Episalvan initially for Partial Thickness Wounds). Birken has its own manufacturing facility. With Episalvan in Ph III, they should be expanding their manufacturing capability, especially if the drug succeeds in Ph III and is approved for Epidermolysis Bullosa.

[thecynical1] 17/1/2018 16:33

Why is he talking about expanding "their manufacturing capacity"...? Companies like this do not generally manufacture themselves????????? They use a contract manufacturer...... That comment seems to me to be more than a little odd......... More than little odd.......somebody trying to play the "big man".....?

Someone correct me if I am wrong.

[pottermagic2310] 14/1/2018 14:12

I think I attempted to predict the earliest possible communication about Trial outcomes AND whether the Trial would continue sometime early last year... and I think I too concluded Feb/March might be the point at which the Business new enough to declare +ve results and a continuing Trial or sufficiently -ve results to discontinue. Not long now...

[papillon] 13/1/2018 15:29

From the RNS dated 28/3/17:

"The Company has initiated the first site for EASE in Sydney, Australia, and will randomise the first patient within the next few days. As previously reported, Amryt expects to conduct EASE in approximately 15 countries at over 30 sites to enrol a total of 164 evaluable patients. Patients will be randomised in a double-blind fashion to AP101 or placebo, and the proportion of patients with completely healed target wounds within 45 days will be evaluated as the primary efficacy endpoint."

From the RNS dated 24/4/17:

"Amryt, the pharmaceutical company focused on best-in-class treatments for rare and orphan diseases, is pleased to announce that the first patient has now been enrolled into "EASE", the Company's pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial, which is evaluating AP101 as a potential treatment for the rare, genetic skin disorder, Epidermolysis Bullosa ("EB")."

From the RNS dated 4/9/17:

"Lead development asset, AP101, has commenced its Phase III clinical trial to assess it as a potential treatment for rare, genetic skin condition, Epidermolysis Bullosa ("EB"):"

So the trials must have started in May, June, July, or August. May seems the most obvious choice.

Also from the RNS dated 4/9/17:

"interim analysis readout expected in H1 2018 and will enable the Company, if necessary, to increase the number of patients in the study to maintain an 80% chance of success"

From the placing RNS dated 21/9/17:

"We are at an exciting stage with AP101, our treatment for EB, a rare and distressing skin disorder which causes exceptionally fragile skin. Our Phase III clinical trial for AP101 is ongoing, with an interim read out due in H1 2018. In anticipation of its successful outcome and subsequent approval, this new money will contribute to funding the pre-launch costs and the expansion of our manufacturing capacity in readiness for the commercial launch of the treatment."

[papillon] 13/1/2018 14:34

Somebody will know when those results are due to be issued, diamondstar, even if they don't know the contents of the RNS. The recent share price performance leading to those very tight Bollinger Bands tells me it wont be very long before those results are announced.

[diamondstar1] 13/1/2018 12:37

Yes, GD, the next few months should be very interesting indeed.
Do bear in mind that my projections are based on estimated primary completion dates provided by Amryt; based on this 11 EB patients are recruited on average per month. If recruitment rates drop for a couple of months eg 5 per month, this will clearly push back the timing for the interims for EASE. My analysis is simply telling us that the interims are more likely in Feb/March/April, rather than May/June. At the end of the day, this will clearly depend on 'real world' recruitment rates in the EASE Ph III study.

[greendragon777] 13/1/2018 11:39

Thanks DS, it would be great if they came out as soon as that. It would mean the countdown is about 6 weeks or less from now! 👍

I better get my on skates on with my remaining top up! 😁

It would be nice to have a few more distribution deals done with Lojuxta to help underpin AMYT's share price in the event of a negative result. Or another Lojuxta type licensing deal in itself would be great.

The next few months are going to be very interesting indeed!

[papillon] 13/1/2018 11:34

Your guess of "as early as Feb 2018", diamondstar, fits in with the Bollinger Bands on the AMYT chart. The very tight BB's indicate to me that a big breakout of those BB's is imminent. Whether that big breakout is up, or down, will no doubt depend on the results! Hopefully they are good. The past results (phaseII & EU approval of Episalvan for PTW's) indicate to me that the results will be good, but nothing is guaranteed. I'd put the CoS as over 50% and as high as 90%. Of course I could be wrong, but I'm holding until these interim results are issued and might even buy more shares before then.

[diamondstar1] 13/1/2018 08:34

Greendragon... With the EASE Ph III trial having a primary completion date ie full recruitment of patients in Sept 2018, it is very unlikely that interim results will come out in May 2018. More likely, this will be in Q1 2018, but we will just have to wait and see!

[diamondstar1] 13/1/2018 07:53

Based on the info that Waterloo posted from the Clinicaltrials.gov website:- actual study start date: March 29, 2017. Estimated primary completion date: Sept 2018.
I am assuming that they will take 2 months to get all their sites activated, therefore effective recruitment window is June 2017 till Sept 2018 i.e. 15 months. With a study of 164 EB patients, monthly recruitment rate = approx 11 patients per month. To reach half no. of patients i.e. 82 patients, this will take 7.5 months. Assuming that it will take 1 month for the the Data Safety Monitoring board to fully analyse the interim data and provide their recommendations, this indicates to me that an announcement on the interim results could come as early as Feb 2018! Of course, there are quite a few assumptions I've made here, and my estimate could be 1-2 months off, but worthwhile knowing the interim results are just around the corner.

[papillon] 12/1/2018 22:41

The latest post on the lse bb.

boomorbust
Posts: 9,438
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 20.10
AMYT Today 17:06 Article re. Amryt's trial from Debra UK below.



The Debra UK article links in to the link that waterloo posted earlier today on this bb.

[greendragon777] 12/1/2018 18:43

We like those apples Paps! :-)

[papillon] 12/1/2018 18:35

AMYT chart showing volume & extremely tight Bollinger Bands. advfn has the volume wrong as it doesn't include the 2 delayed reported trades (total volume 600k), either today when they were reported, or yesterday when they were done. Due to those very tight BB's a major percentage share price movement wouldn't surprise me. My best guess would be a big percentage rise in the share price If & when? That's the big question.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[greendragon777] 12/1/2018 18:30

Ouch.....that's a serious pump & dump situation right there Paps. Needless to say a lot of people would have got burnt!

[greendragon777] 12/1/2018 18:29

Nice volumes indeed Paps and it's mostly on the buy side too. Would be great if it is institutional investors coming in as the buying spree should continue as they build their positions over time.

Good resource on the EB trials Waterloo, thanks for posting. They mention 164 estimated patient enrollment but they are still recruiting so not sure how it works with regard timelines etc. My guess is somewhere between May or June for the interim results but perhaps they will come sooner. Initially it was down as Q2 but was changed to H1 so perhaps this means it's possible to come out as early as Q1 I don't know!

[papillon] 12/1/2018 17:50

The stock market can be very irrational and illogical at times!! Luckily AMYT is not a pump & dump operation. Heaven help those poor unfortunates who bought yesterday & still hold!

AIQ suspended this morning @ 125p after listing on Tuesday @ 8p. It listed on the standard segment of the main market.

[papillon] 12/1/2018 17:06

Good link waterloo. Many thanks.