Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[greendragon777] 10/1/2018 09:27

It sure is PM. Looks like they are really beginning to ramp things up with Lojuxta now which will hopefully start feeding into the bottom line in H1. I didn't see any numbers mentioned but could we hazard a guess that it'll be somewhere between €5m-€10m revenue for these 11 countries? It could be way higher but I'm guessing the prices achieved will be lower than the likes of Switzerland. I could be way off but needless to say it's going to add to AMYT's bottom line! 👍

Keep 'em coming AMYT! 😁

[pottermagic2310] 10/1/2018 08:44

More good news regarding improved Business this morning.

[papillon] 09/1/2018 23:02

Saw the following post on the lse bb today and it's a complete nonsense!! LOL. For starters, to the best of my knowledge, NONE of the AMYT BoD performs drug research in a laboratory!! LOL. The idea of the BoD donning white coats made me chuckle. Secondly Lojuxta is NOT AMYT's intectual property so it can't ticker with the formulation. AMYT only have a license from Novelion to market Lojuxta in certain market areas. Lojuxta is the intellectual property of Novelion who market the drug in the America's & Japan under the original name, Juxtapid. The poster on the lse bb, Arbitrage, is away with the fairies! LOL.

Arbitrage
Posts: 1,242
Observation
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Price: 20.00
blue-sky thinking re Lojuxta . . .Today 21:02 "Lojuxta is a treatment for Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia ("HoFH"), a rare, life-limiting disease, which impairs the body's ability to remove LDL cholesterol ("bad" cholesterol) from the blood. Starting before birth, the disease progresses rapidly, and typically results in extremely high blood LDL cholesterol levels, which leads to aggressive and premature narrowing and blocking of blood vessels."

In light of the above, is it not logical to conclude that given it's proven scientific pedigree and ability to significantly reduce LDL cholesterol, that the BOD of Amryt could well posses the ability to 'tweak' the Lojuxta molecule in order to treat a significant percentage of the global population diagnosed with both Obesity and Diabetes, whose associated side effects include LDL Cholesterol and in so doing, successfully target a substantial share of the $163 billion market to 2022 (as outlined before courtesy of Business Wire).

[greendragon777] 09/1/2018 22:59

Too true Paps, Buffet was never a man for the 10 baggers but he still did ok out of investing even with a measly 20% average annual returns! haha

As odds go though for high risk high reward stocks such as AMYT, I think they are extremely good. Of course there is still a significant chance AP101 will fail but we all obviously believe it has a good chance to succeed or none of us would be here.

Jacksonpollock & Co will either be laughing at us in several months time or we'll be up to our nads in cash! haha

[papillon] 09/1/2018 22:20

Yes, "patience is the name of the game here", grendragon, but AIM listed AMYT is not a company Buffet would invest in. He tends to invest in established brands such as Coca Cola & Gillette with good growth prospects and undervalued asset situations, such as re-insurance. AMYT is in neither category; it is a punt on the result of the AP101 phaseIII trials. Lets hope our patience is rewarded with a successful phaseIII result. Fingers crossed! The odds look very good for AP101, but nothing is guaranteed.

[greendragon777] 09/1/2018 20:20

Easy now DS or you'll have me buying more shares than I should! 😁

Agreed Paps, patience is the name of the game here....I won't quote my favourite Buffet quote here for the hundredth time, I'll spare you on this occasion! Haha

[papillon] 09/1/2018 15:11

Of course I am, Jacksonpollack. Did I not say so in my post? If you think I didn't then read my post again!

However AMYT is not an AIM listed mineral explorer like your EDL, or FAST, for that matter. There are real people, EB sufferers, whose life will be benefited enormously by AP101's phaseIII trials being deemed successful.

I can be "in it for the money", but still have sympathy for the sufferers from EB. I think you, nightflight & radar treat AMYT like you would any AIM listed mineral explorer (just a continuation of your investment in FAST, in fact). I might be wrong, but don't think you have any sympathy for the EB sufferers. If you lot had then nightflight wouldn't have posted he was "sick to death" of this share. The trouble with you, nightflight & radar is you have no patience. You expect good news every week and a doubling of the share price to match that news. It don't work like that. You're not good enough traders to make a profit in the very short term, so get stuck with the shares and end up continually bellyaching because you want to get out, but not at a loss! Unfortunately the fortunes of AMYT depend on the AP101 trial results and phaseIII trials take time to complete if they are to satisfy the regulatory requirements.

[jacksonpollack] 09/1/2018 14:16

Ha ha, nice one pap. Pull the other one. You are in it for the money, period.

[papillon] 09/1/2018 13:35

Hi diamondstar. Many thanks for your informative, knowledgeable, posts.

[diamondstar1] 09/1/2018 13:25

Hi Paps,

Yes, you are sharp eyed, and noticed my omission. The full sentence should be ‘if you repeated the Ph II trial 100 times, you would expect similarly good results in 6 out 100 experiments (p=0.06) IF THE RESULTS WERE PURELY DUE TO CHANCE. The probability of the Ph II result being a chance finding is therefore very low. This means that if you repeated Ph II experiment 100 times, in 94 studies you would expect similar good results, due to differences in treatment effect between Episalvan and placebo.
Yes, you are right that naturally occurring substances such as tamoxifen (an anti-cancer agent) can have toxic side effects. But in general, naturally occurring substances, such birch bark extract, which has been used as a herbal remedy, should have an excellent safety profile, especially if given dermally.

[papillon] 09/1/2018 12:40

"In fact, the probability of the observed differences being simply due to chance is very very low i.e. around 4 percent. This means that if the Ph II trial were repeated 100 times, you would expect to find similarly good results in 4 out of 100 experiments."

That doesn't make sense to me, diamondstar. If you are correct with your 4% probability assertion then surely you would expect "similarly good results" in 96 out of 100 experiments?

"Because Episalvan is a cream made of natural ingredients, the risk of failure due to poor drug safety is negligible"

I don't agree with that statement either. For example deadly nightshade is a completely natural ingredient, but it could prove to be fatal (through poisoning via your blood stream) if it was put into a cream to treat wounds!

"the risk of failure due to poor drug safety is negligible, especially since it is already approved for partial thickness wounds"

I agree with that statement, though there were potential adverse side effects mentioned when it was approved. All drugs & treatments (eg ibuprofen, paracetamol) have potentially adverse side effects, but those risks are considered to be acceptable by the regulatory authorities. What were acceptable potentially adverse side effects with Episalvan when it was approved for the treatment of PTW's is likely to be acceptable for the treatment of EB so I'm also discounting AP101 being denied approval because of safety fears.

Ultimately I'm hoping for a £1 sp, at least, sometime during 2018. £2 would be excellent. Let's hope I'm not just indulging in wishful thinking!

[papillon] 09/1/2018 11:09

I agree, diamondstar, that the interim results are likely to be positive. What greedy barstewards like Jacksonpollack and nightflight & radar on the lse forget, when they moan non stop about the company and the disappointing share price performance, is that real people are involved here. Real people with a debilitating condition. If AP101 doesn't prove to be a beneficial treatment to aid those suffering from EB then that will be a big set back for those unfortunate individual EB sufferers. For us it will just mean a loss of some of our savings. Don't get me wrong; both the company and us as shareholders are in this to make money, but I would hope that the company & shareholders are not solely concerned with the opportunity of making money. It looks to me as though Jacksonpollack, nightflight & radar couldn't give a toss about those suffering from EB.

[diamondstar1] 09/1/2018 10:04

Yes, Greendragon. I’m extremely positive about the odds myself.

Previously, I had assigned a 60 percent chance of the Episalvan Ph III on being positive, based on historical data. However, I performed a very in-depth analysis on the recently published Ph II EB results for Episalvan. The fact that 16 visual assessments on EB skin lesions were judged to be superior with Episalvan vs placebo, 6 assessments equal and only 2 assessments indicating that placebo was better than episalvan, is highly suggestive that Episalvan is producing real improvements in EB lesions. In fact, the probability of the observed differences being simply due to chance is very very low i.e. around 4 percent. This means that if the Ph II trial were repeated 100 times, you would expect to find similarly good results in 4 out of 100 experiments.

Hence, I’ve deduced that the probability of the Episalvan EB Ph III being positive is much higher than 60 percent. What level is anyone’s guess, but I’m being very enthusiastic and have now personally assigned an 80 percent chance of the Ph III being positive. Why 80 percent? Firstly, the Ph II results look good, as previously mentioned. Secondly, the major reasons for drugs failing at Ph III include 1) poor safety and 2) poor efficacy. Because Episalvan is a cream made of natural ingredients, the risk of failure due to poor drug safety is negligible, especially since it is already approved for partial thickness wounds. Moreover, Episalvan is mainly active topically. Therefore, the risk of failure will primarily be related to poor efficacy only (rather than safety), further lowering the risk of Ph III failure.

The interim results will be available in the first half of 2018, and the results will actually be based on approximately half of the patients enrolled, i.e. about 70 patients. I am sure that they have built a futility analysis in the interim i.e. they will stop the study if there is no divergence in efficacy between Episalvan vs. Placebo. If the treatment effect appears to be smaller than expected, they may even increase patient numbers. But they may just continue the study ‘as plannned’. I anticipate that the announcement of the interim results will be devoid of any specific study results, and will simply let us know if the study is ‘continuing as planned’. I anticipate that if the interims are good (i.e. study is continued), we will see share prices between 30 to 40p. If the full results are positive, I’m confident that the company could be worth 8 to 10 times current value i.e. circa valuation of zorblisa, which recently failed in their EB phase III trial. Keep you fingers crossed Greendragon and Paps!!

[greendragon777] 09/1/2018 08:32

You're up early DS! :-)

Thanks for posting, I like those odds. I agree that it's very unlikely that the share price will drop any further from here. I've been topping up these last couple of weeks and have another little bit to go before I'm all set!

AMYT management are not going be sitting on their laurels, I suspect there will be a string of announcements in relation to Lujuxta similar to yesterday's RNS not to mention any other possible deals that they may be doing with other companies. That should keep tipping the price upwards. Then obviously as we get closer to the AP101 interims AMYT should start to gain more attention.

All going well with those interims I think AMYT will look very different by the end of Q2 this year.

The few of us here who have been patiently awaiting will be rewarded hopefully and we won't have to wait all that much longer to find out!

Good luck!

[diamondstar1] 09/1/2018 04:21

Hi Paps,

I agree with you that 17.25p was the ‘capitulation’ level. However, my personal feeling is that we are not likely to return to 18p levels to ‘fill the gap’, as even at these levels (circa 19.5p), as recorded transactions indicate that there are lots of buyers @19.7p vs sellers @19.5p.

Only time will tell, of course, but my feeling is that people will look back at these levels (19p) as a good buying opportunity.

2 good reasons why I consider Amryt a good strong buy at this level:-
1) The recent capital raise was at 20p, which has highly oversubscribed. Any level below this, I consider a good discount.
2) The recently published Ph II results in EB with Episalvan showed a very good trend for improvement. Though the patient sample size was small, there were 12 EB lesions, which were evaluated by 2 independent consultants in a blinded manner. 16 of these readings were judged to be superior with Episalvan vs placebo; 6 readings equivalent with Episalvan and placebo, and 2 readings better with placebo vs. Episalvan. What is the probability of these results to be a ‘true effect’? Very very high! A bit like throwing a dice 24 times, and getting a six in 16 out of 24 throws!
Paps - I think the MMs have drawn a line in the sand, and are trying very hard to defend the 19p level - the spread is amazingly thin now. Buying at 19.68p; selling at 19.5p. I believe we have reached an equilibrium, where there are not many sellers left, whereas potential buyers like yourself are looking to ‘top up’ if we reach 18p. Indeed, if we really do reach 18p, I will make sure that I add substantially to my holdings!

[papillon] 08/1/2018 19:12

Couple of idiotic posts on the lse bb.

nightflight
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RE: Amryt Today 11:45 The trouble is people are sick to death of this share. I think it's been 3 times in a row it starts to rally and then we are hit with a dilution. It will take more than ever to get the share price moving again.

radar
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RE: Amryt Today 18:17 Good post flight

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

No it's NOT a "good post", radar. Whilst those suffering from HoFH would be justified in being "sick to death" of their life threatening condition that doesn't apply to healthy shareholders having the means to speculate on risky shares listed on AIM. nightflight is an idiot. For starters we have only had one placing since AMYT floated back Q2 2016. I'll grant you it wasn't expected and wasn't good news, but don't exaggerate! If nightflight and radar are "sick to death of this share" they have the solution. SELL YOUR SHARES then you'll be healthy again! LOL.

"It will take more than ever to get the share price moving again." Rubbish! All it'll take is the AP101 interim results expected in H1 2018. Whether that movement will be UP, or DOWN, will depend on those results. nightflight & radar? Both as thick as two short planks! LOL.

[papillon] 08/1/2018 18:37

AMYT log chart showing volume. I think the very high volume back in November indicated the final sell off (probably the sellers included shareholders from back in the FAST days finally giving up on AMYT) and corresponded to a low point in the share price


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[papillon] 08/1/2018 16:53

Back in your box, Jacksonpollack! No one has given you a thought today, let alone mention you! LOL.

This Swiss deal was probably something AMYT had to RNS today, but it's not done anything for the share price today, apart from a very small, NOTIONAL, percentage rise in the share price engineered by the MM's and the share price will probably continue it's drift downwards, IMO, in the short term. bwtfdik?

"I'm not invested here and won't be until this hits the low teens.". In your dreams, Jacksonpollack! You're fantasising again! LOL I see the share price possibly dropping back to 18p to fill November's gap up following on from the Midas tip in the Mail, maybe even going down to re-test November's intraday low on just above 17p, but NOT back down to the low teens. The share price did drop back down to the low teens during Q4 2016, but that was because investors did not expect any good news until H1 2018 (AP101 interim results) and were caught out by the release of the good news of the EIB loan and Lojuxta deal in early December 2016. This is not Q4 2016; it's Q1 2018 so the AP101 interim results are much, much, closer.

[jacksonpollack] 08/1/2018 16:16

Oh, oh, oh. What's with having a go at me, I ain't said nothing about today's mediocre news. I'm not invested here and won't be until this hits the low teens.

[greendragon777] 08/1/2018 14:48

I'm completely guessing but the agent's fees might not actually be a whole lot. It's not like they need a distribution channel servicing hundreds or even thousands of customers, we're literally talking about 15 patients.

My point being that the cost of finding/servicing these customers should be very low hence low fees for the agent!

I could be way off the mark but we'll see over time!

[papillon] 08/1/2018 14:27

Unfortunately, greendragon & PTGInt, all today's trades, so far, have been recorded as sells by the financial web sites, even though there have been obvious buys, because it's still possible to buy well below below the 20p mid price of the quoted spread. The quoted spread of 19.5 - 20.5p is a complete nonsense as it was last week. I don't know what the MM's are playing at, but it looks to me as if today's notional rise in the share price wont last and the share price will continue to drift lower in the short term.

I get your point about these announcements adding up, but whereas we know what AMYT has to pay Novelion we have no idea what these Swiss & Saudi Arabian agents will take as their cut of the revenue cake. We'll have to wait for the company results to find out AMYT's profit from these future Lojuxta sales.

[ptgint] 08/1/2018 14:14

I too agree with what you say Pap and also the price being paid in any country is only a guess But as greendragon says , how pleasant it is to get good news, however small, out of AMYT and Switzerland is only a small country.

[greendragon777] 08/1/2018 14:00

On it's own Paps it might not be big news but I suspect there will be a slew of these announcements this year (hopefully sooner rather than later) so they should all add up to a significant amount.

But I take your point, it won't all translate to AMYT's bottom line so we need the volume to make the numbers!

A good start to the year with plenty more to come hopefully! 👍

[papillon] 08/1/2018 13:00

The share price is currently up just 1.5% on today's news; says it all really. Whether the share price will continue to rise during the rest of the week as a delayed reaction to today's news I have no idea, but I have my doubts.

I'm just waiting for the big news; the AP101 interim trial results. To my mind today's RNS is not big news!

[papillon] 08/1/2018 12:51

Yes, PTGint & greendragon, if all the 15 Swiss with this condition took Lojuxta then your revenue figures COULD be correct (Solomon quotes prices, figures I originally posted ages ago, but we don't know at what price the Swiss agent will sell Lojuxta in Switzerland).

However there are THREE mouths to feed with this revenue. AMYT, Novelion (Aegerion) and the new Swiss agent. AMYT have to pay royalties and milestone payments to Novelion and the Swiss agent will want their cut. How much of that potential Swiss revenue will end up with AMYT is guesswork at the moment (though we know the amounts that AMYT will have to pay Novelion). How much of that potential revenue will end up in AMYT's bottom line we don't know, but I suspect it will be significantly lower than the figures quoted by you, gentlemen.