Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[dlm2602] 16/9/2019 12:30

I've added to my holding. I think there will be a material share price increase once AMRYT lists on Nasdaq. Although the link below is a buy recommendation for Novelion, which will hold around 8% of new Amryt shares after the deal, a lot of the information is relevant to Amryt shareholders too.

Specifically, with the share price of new Amryt at £1.435 on Nasdaq listing this values the company at around $308m and enterprise value of around $458m. With 2018 sales of $137m this gives an EV/Sales ratio of 3.3. This compares very favourably with Amryts peer group listed here where the next lowest is 3.9 and the median of the group at 6.

Amryt will hope that the Nasdaq listing goes well and there is a strong appetite for the shares, so I think they have deliberately factored in a discount to the listing price. If we assume that Amryt reaches the 3.9 ratio of the next lowest company in the peer group, that would give a share price of £1.70

Further, this is based on 2018 sales of $137m. The forecast for revenues in 2020 and 2021 are $200.7 and $314 respectively. If the EV/Sales ratio stays the same, this would imply a further increase in share price to £2.50 and £3.90 respectively.

Ok, there are many of assumptions and estimates to get to these valuations and there could be a few hurdles along the way. But I like the risk/reward here and you currently get the CVR's worth up to £1.22 per share (but could be zero) in for free.

As always DYOR

[papillon] 16/9/2019 12:26

So mdalos has sold all his shares then, bazworth? I didn't realise he had as many as 700+. I thought I was a small shareholder with my tiny 5k. LOL.

[bazworth] 16/9/2019 10:49

See you’ve sold your 700+ shares mdalos1, well done!!

[chica1] 16/9/2019 10:38

Good and spend it wisely.

You should really try to be more positive,negatively is a silent killer .

[bazworth] 16/9/2019 09:34

Don’t do that - it’s orrible!

[papillon] 16/9/2019 00:05

Cathal Friel did say that, chica, in the link provided by Bermudashorts. Friel definitely says in that youtube video interview that AMYT will list on the Nasdaq in November. He may not be on the AMYT BoD anymore, but I've an idea he knows more than mdalos! LOL.

If Mark Taub is correct in that AMYT will be significantly undervalued compared with it's peer group when it lists on the Nasdaq will we then see the AMYT share price significantly rerated, or will the rerating start before it lists on Nasdaq?

Plenty to look forward to in Q4 2019.

[bazworth] 15/9/2019 20:29

This is the Dog’s B’s of a BB!

Better than watching the Soaps by a country mile!!

Keep going folks, priceless

[alphabravo321] 15/9/2019 19:16

He did Chica

[chica1] 15/9/2019 18:58

Didn't Cathal Friel just say this week that the plan is Nasdaq listing in November.

[papillon] 15/9/2019 15:32

"you are SO ANNOYING!" I agree with you, chica. mdalsos is "SO ANNOYING!" which is why I have him on filter. You should try filtering him. I promise not to peek at his posts again and hence will not respond to them in future.

"I have read that the AIM stock exchange is the wild west and to stay a mile away but I was told when AMYT gets on the Nasdaq and if management do their job property American investors reward the company appropriately.Did'nt the CEO at some stage say he wanted to create another Shire Pharmaceuticals?". I agree with you chica!

[chica1] 15/9/2019 14:07

I dont know much about investing but I thought investing was for the long term.I've little or no clue what a CVR but if we get it great, if not so what.
I have read that the AIM stock exchange is the wild west and to stay a mile away but I was told when AMYT gets on the Nasdaq and if management do their job property American investors reward the company appropriately.Did'nt the CEO at some stage say he wanted to create another Shire Pharmaceuticals?

Both of you are SO ANNOYING!

[papillon] 15/9/2019 00:50

I've NEVER said I'm a shareholder, MADLOSS. What I've said is I hold my shares via an online broker nominee a/c. So as far as AMYT are concerned I don't exist! Hence I haven't received a shareholder pack. All that information is on the AMYT web site anyway. I just can't be bothered, or have the time, to read it. You, as a resident of Broadmoor, probably do have the time and the inclination!

I go solely by the official RNS's.

You can believe what you want, MADLOSS. It makes no odds to me what you believe. I'm just happy to be showing a profit. You're a conspiracy theorist, MADLOSS. You probably think that the Moon landing 50 years ago never happened and that the Earth is flat. You're not worth arguing with. This is the last time I will respond to your lunacy. I know I hold my AMYT shares in an online broker nominee a/c. Whether you believe that, or not, I just don't give a toss. Now be a good boy and let the nurses put your straightjcket back on.

[papillon] 14/9/2019 12:50

I must admit to being curious as to what mdalos was posting so I had a quick peek at his latest post. It's hilarious. I ROFLMAO! I think he's having trouble with his Caps Lock! He's obviously as mad as a hatter. I think his carers must remove his straitjacket now and again to enable him to post his very entertaining diatribes. I think they are a lot more liberal at Broadmoor these days and allow patients a chance to express themselves. PMSL.

Do read his latest post as it's hilarious, but be very quick because he will soon delete it. I honestly believe that no one will take any notice of what mdalos posts, not even the very gullible. It's always interesting to read all viewpoints, but he stays on my filter because he seems to have some sort of personal vendetta against me. I don't know why; perhaps only the doctors treating him know the reason. LOL.

PS I'm thinking of contacting the company and Nomad to enquire about the actual number of CVR's that will be in issue and whether they realise that some nutty poster on the ADVFN bb is posting that the facts contained in the RNS dated 27th August are lies and fake news. Perhaps that's why mdalos deletes all his posts. However one can NEVER delete your posts from ADVFN. They are still available if one knows where to look.

[papillon] 14/9/2019 12:33

Some (or someone) have (has) been loading up in a big way on Thursday. There were 9 big trades on Thursday where reporting was delayed that were only reported yesterday after the market closed!! From 40k all the way up to 175k shares (£44.8k up to £199.62k). Going by the prices and times the trades were completed it looks like they are a mixture of buys and sells, but going by the share price rises on Thursday and yesterday I'm pretty certain the buys outnumber the sells.

Many thanks, Bermudashorts, for posting that link to the youtube video of Cathal Friel's very positive verdict on the Aegerion acquisition/RTO. He was rather fulsome in his praise for Joe Wiley and Rory Nealon on negotiating the deal. He was obviously very impressed with the way they have turned AMYT from a company whose share price was very dependent on the success, or otherwise, on a single product, AP101 into a broad based biopharma with sales of over US$130m pa whose share price wont collapse if AP101 fails the Phase III trial. I wonder if Friel was topping up on Thursday? It wouldn't surprise me.

PS. I remember Amicus's share price DIDN'T collapse when Zorblisa (Socioderm's treatment for EB that was acquired by Amicus in an extremely generous deal for Socioderm shareholders) was ditched by Amicus when it was deemed to to be a failure at the interim stage of it's Phase III trial. In fact the Amicus share price hardly moved. Perhaps that was because investors felt the Amicus deal had been far too generous for Socioderm shareholders. Hopefully something similar could be the case for the AMYT share price if AP101 fails it's Phase III trial. Of course the deal for old AMYT shareholders (pre the completion of the Aegerion deal) is nowhere near as generous as that offered by Amicus to Socioderm shareholders.