Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[diamondstar1] 01/11/2019 18:56

NASDAQ have quite a lot of pre-requisites prior to listing. I’m sure that Amryt share consolidation was due to their requirements. Amryt is clearly well capitalised now. How about requirement for a certain volume of shares traded daily? Just wondering whether NASDAQ listing may have met a slight delay due to certain requirements?

[papillon] 01/11/2019 18:01

Joe Wiley predicted the Nasdaq listing would take place within 90 days of the Aegerion deal being finalised. The deal was finalised on the 25th September so the Nasdaq listing will occur sometime between now and Christmas Day. Unless Joe Wiley was being over optimistic.

[waterloo01] 01/11/2019 17:02

Nasdaq will be 1st, for the reasons discussed last week. Have to say I hope for, but don't expect great results from the phase 3 but it would add enormously to the value (the priority voucher alone is worth $100m.

[diamondstar1] 01/11/2019 16:54

It’s been awhile since anyone has talked about the Ph3 EASE study with Episalvan in EB patients. To be honest, I think most people (including myself) have been focusing on Aegerion acquisition for the past 6 months. During the interim results disclosure for EASE in Jan 2019, it was mentioned that the top line study results would be available in H2 2019. Clinicaltrials.gov now shows 53 sites are actively recruiting for the study and that the Primary Completion Date is Dec 2019. The study will then need a further 4-6 weeks for Database Lock (DBL) and another 2 weeks for analysing data and preparing for press release. Thus, I think a mid Feb or early March 2020 disclosure of full EASE top line data - would be realistic. That’s only 3-4 months away! These would be the 2 drivers for an uptrend in Amryt share price in the coming months:- 1) NASDAQ listing 2) Full EASE Results. Which will come first?... I really don’t know. But I’m quite sure that it will be a very interesting year ahead for Amryt shareholders!

[papillon] 30/10/2019 16:48

Two massive 250k trades separated by just 14 seconds were reported at 3:25pm. Probably a rollover done at the bid price. A 250k sell @ 116.50p (£291.25k) and a 250k buy back @ 117p (£292.50k). Rollover fee of £1.25k.

Some very large bets being rolled over today. Following all this large rollover activity I expect news on the Nasdaq listing very soon.

[papillon] 30/10/2019 15:28

Good post diamondstar.

Three very big 100k trades around 1:30pm. Two are probably a rollover. A sell of 100k @ 116p (£116k) and 21 seconds later a buy @ 117p (£117k). The £1k difference being the rollover fee. Then 5 minutes later another 100k buy at 117p (£117k).

Just after the rollover there is a 84,809 trade done at the mid price recorded as unknown on the lse web site. Probably a sell.

There was probably another 50k rollover done around 11:35am. 50k sold @ 116 (£58k) and 26 seconds later they were probably bought back at 116.50p (£58.25k). The £250 difference being the rollover fee.

PS These rollovers must indicate the big gamblers/traders are expecting news of the Nasdaq listing date soon.

[diamondstar1] 30/10/2019 12:04

Yes, interesting when Bronxville posts positive things about Amryt! You know for sure that he now holds some stock. You only have to wait around the corner for when he has sold his stake in Amryt - before he starts spouting out negativity again :)

Anyway, I agree that Amryt is undervalued at the moment. I wonder where the figure of 8.8 times revenue came from? I suspect US-based biotech companies - hence a more realistic figure of 5-6 times revenue is likely more achievable with our AIM listing. We'll need to wait for the NASDAQ listing for the £5.34 target to be a reality.

I appreciate how Amryt have structured the CVRs. If Episalvan (AP101) fails in Ph3, I do not expect Amryt share price to take a significant hit now, because valuation is underpinned by Lojuxta and Myaleptin revenues. The CVRs, in my opinion, have been funded mainly by the FDA Priority Voucher. If AP101 gets FDA approval, then they are due the windfall of the Priority Voucher, worth circa $100 million. The money from the voucher, I believe, will be channelled towards the CVRs, which milestones are largely based on FDA approval (though smaller proportion based on EMA approval and hitting revenue targets for AP101).

[papillon] 30/10/2019 11:24

Good post by Bronxville on the lse bb

Bronxville
Posts: 1,277
Price: 116.60
No Opinion
Stifel's price target
29 Oct 2019 22:10
Another Shire Pharma?
Its story is similar to that of Shire, founded by the company's chairman Harry Stratford, which grew to be one of the nation’s top 50 largest businesses, developing a portfolio of niche medications.

“We wanted to create a new investment thesis,” said CEO Wiley.

“We wanted to say you can invest in a solid business that will generate cash flow; that is sustainable into the future and will grow with the upside of potential new drugs and the other development pipeline opportunities we have.”

What the broker says
Stifel’s Herrmann reckons Amryt and Aegerion are stronger together.

He reckons sales from sales from Lojuxta and Myalept will be US$309.5m by 2022.

He pointed out that revenue-generative orphan drug companies trade at 8.8-times historic earnings. On that basis, Amryt would be worth US$1.2bn, or 89p a share

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Stifel's price target was obviously written before the 1 for 6 consolidation. Hence their price target needs to be adjusted to take that share consolidation into a/c. Their price target for 2022 then becomes 6 x 89p = 534p (£5.34). That price target doesn't include any success achieved with AP101 and AP103.

Will the AMYT share price be £5.34 sometime in 2022 even without success from AP101 & AP103? I don't know, but it would be nice if it was! Hopefully it will be higher. Fingers crossed as always! I live in hope!

[papillon] 29/10/2019 12:53

Bermudashorts, regarding your list of recent Nasdaq biotech IPO's that have recently downsized, or cancelled, because of market sentiment (your post 5077)? I presume all those companies you listed were raising money when listing? AMYT, however, will NOT be raising money when it lists on Nasdaq (it has already raised US$60m) so current market sentiment for new issues will not be so relevant.

By the way I wasn't complaining about the delay in AMYT listing on Nasdaq, just commenting on Cathal Friel's over optimistic prediction of October.

[bermudashorts] 28/10/2019 19:23

Exactly my point - it's early days and too early to be fretting about any expectations set by Cathal Friel. Amryt's advisors will be sounding out the market and most certainly will be able to predict the appetite from investors for AMYT stock.

[papillon] 28/10/2019 18:44

For all we know they probably are pushing on with the listing, Bermudashorts. After all the Aegerion deal was only finalised 31 days ago. It's still early days.

I don't believe anyone can successfully predict the future NBI, Bermudashorts, in the short term. Not even AMYT's advisors! I don't believe that AMYT are delaying listing on Nasdaq until conditions improve, but if they were that's a very risky stance to take because conditions might NOT get any better (and could get a lot worse!!) before the AP101 results are due. Both diamondstar & waterloo make good points in their posts.

[waterloo01] 28/10/2019 18:20

Ditto SLN in the 60's (even though I'm not a fan of the company). Catching up with US peers. Been in and out for years.

[bermudashorts] 28/10/2019 18:19

Papillon,

Yes you're right, they may push on because they may believe conditions will worsen on the other hand they may believe they'll improve in which case, I'm sure you'll agree that the push on regardless strategy would not be the right one.

Either way, I'm sure they'll be rewarding their advisors handsomely for their advice and will no doubt be following their guidance.

[volsung] 28/10/2019 18:17

Was lucky enough to be buying SLN in the 40s not long ago. Hopefully something similar here?

[diamondstar1] 28/10/2019 18:16

I agree with Paps - list ASAP. Amryt is not a small virtual biotech company anymore. It has 2 Marketed Products with good revenue. Biotechs and pharmas are also generally more resistant to downturns. Look what is happening Silence Therapeutics share price at the moment - multi-bagger for those who are brave to buy a few months ago!

[papillon] 28/10/2019 17:54

The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) has been going sideways between 3000 and 3600 during 2019. Currently it's around midway, circa 3350, between those 2 extremes, Bermudashorts. So though you have quoted those recent biotech IPO's being downsized, or cancelled, the NBI has performed well this month (up by almost 10% since the start of October) so sentiment doesn't seem that bad at the moment.



PS Wiley said that the Nasdaq listing would happen within 90 days of the Aegerion deal being finalised. We are only 31 days into that 90.

You state "Surely rather that push ahead regardless, the correct strategy is to bide their time and proceed when market conditions are right?" However the market conditions might NOT improve over the next 60 days, Bermudashorts. In fact they could get worse!! Far better to list ASAP.

[waterloo01] 28/10/2019 16:44

Bermuda, I don't know much about the above mentioned companies but I would have thought that as AMYT have a combined very decent revenue stream, it puts them somewhat in a different boat to biotechs who are reliant purely on ongoing trial results.

AMYT will also need to get this done before Ap101 read out, in case it's negative. If they do it after the price would be very different with the risk side of the company removed (one way or the other). IMO

[bermudashorts] 28/10/2019 16:28

No, I'm not referring to WeWork, I'm talking only about NASDAQ biotech IPOs which is, of course, what is relevant here. Some examples over recent weeks.


Rapt Therapeutics - IPO initially cancelled and then downsized

ADC Therapeutics - IPO cancelled due to adverse market conditions

BioNTech - downsized with lower valuation

Vir Biotechnology - downsized and raised at lowest end of price range

Frequency Therapeutics - downsized and raised at lowest end of price range

Monopar Therapeutics - IPO cancelled due to adverse market conditions

Inate Pharma - downsized



I'm sure there are others. Of course sentiment and investor appetite can turn on a shoestring but the point still stands - market conditions have not been great for biotech IPOs onto NASDAQ and Amryt will just have to follow the advice of their advisors and go ahead at the optimum time.

[papillon] 28/10/2019 15:33

The Dow Jones & S&P 500 are in bullish territory at the moment, Bermudashorts, according to the Ichimoku charts. I'll check on the Nasdaq later.

Regarding IPO's being pulled in recent weeks I presume you are alluding to WeWork, a business that was acknowledged as being vastly over valued months ago. In fact there were newspaper reports to that effect early this year, so the fact that the WeWork float was pulled and that Softbank have now valued it at a fraction of what the "disgraced" founder thought it was worth should have come as no surprise.

As to why Friel's prediction hasn't come to pass (though there are 3 trading days left in October!) it's all guesswork I'm afraid. I think it was just Friel being over optimistic; after all it's only 31 days since the Aegerion deal was finalised and Wiley did state the Nasdaq listing would happen within 90 days of that deal being finalised. We are only a third of the way through that 90 days.

[bermudashorts] 28/10/2019 12:37

They will be at the mercy of market conditions and they're not good at the moment!! Recent weeks have seen IPOs being pulled or downsized and disappointing valuations. Surely rather that push ahead regardless, the correct strategy is to bide their time and proceed when market conditions are right?

[papillon] 28/10/2019 12:05

Still "All Quiet on the (Nasdaq) Front"! It's beginning to look like Cathal Friel's AMYT Nasdaq listing in October prediction was rather over optimistic.

[papillon] 25/10/2019 15:45

Signs of life in the sp! Some very big trades going through all of a sudden. Nasdaq listing date imminent?

[papillon] 24/10/2019 12:24

radar
Posts: 2,993
Price: 115.50
No Opinion
Now
Today 08:35
This could tank in the absence of news.

Those investors who paid £1.41, well ....................

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The above is the latest post from old misery guts, radar, on the lse bb. I'll finish off his last sentence for him .. .. "Those investors who paid £1.41, well THEY GOT THEIR CVR's!! To get those CVR's they had to pay over the odds for their AMYT shares. Will that prove to be wise, or not? Only time will tell. By leaving their purchase of AMYT shares to the last minute, rather than buying sooner (just after it relisted) they paid more for their shares (I topped up twice at £1.05 and £1.07). That wasn't wise!

[papillon] 22/10/2019 17:20

Cionnathagad
Posts: 52
Price: 115.50
Strong Buy
Inquiry about AP103
Today 15:20
Called the company this morning
re yesterdays news
management are at a Board of Directors meeting in NY.

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"management are at a Board of Directors meeting in NY." I like that!! Does a BoD meeting in NY imply that the Nasdaq listing is near? I hope so!

PS. 25k buy today, but 50k sell reported just before close. Hopefully the seller will live to regret selling and soon.

[bermudashorts] 22/10/2019 12:03

Timbo,

Thanks for that. Haven't seen the Rhys video before, his suffering is utterly heartbreaking.

"Everywhere sore, painful every day, 24/7 just pain"


Re. the CVR's, not sure who your ISA is with but mine are sitting in my HL ISA a/c and apparently will be moved out shortly into my normal trading a/c. Might be worth a call to your broker as I understand there's a 30 day deadline.