Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 14/10/2018 21:27

"Turki Aldhakhil, the general manager of Al Arabiya, the official Saudi news channel, claimed in an opinion piece that Riyadh was ready to implement 30 measures “without flinching” the moment US sanctions were imposed, including cuts to oil production that could lead to prices rising to $100 a barrel."

[jacksonpollack] 14/10/2018 18:19

Fair points papillon. I sold AMYT at the right time, more out of frustration and luck than anything else. If you checkout and listen to sounds latest fireside chat and CEO pep talk you may well change your mind. Good luck to you here, but unless it drops significantly further, it's not for me anymore. As I said a long time ago here ... too many bod snouts in the trough ... and more waffle than the Brexit negotiations.

[papillon] 13/10/2018 13:37

Bronxville
Posts: 520
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 14.875
West coast of Ireland oil rush..Today 11:27 With all the activity
off the west coast of Ireland it would have been better for this company to have stayed in oil.

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Well there could be good news on that front, Bronxville, if you were on the FAST shareholder register on the 15/12/2015 because FAST's remaining O&G interests (extensive and expensive 3-D seismic offshore in the Celtic Sea and not that far from the Barryroe field) was put into a trust fund for FAST shareholders on the shareholders register on the 15/12/2015. Successful appraisal wells on Barryroe next year could rekindle interest in the Celtic Sea offshore of Cork and give that 3-D seismic some montary value.

[papillon] 12/10/2018 18:50

mdalos1 5 Oct '18 - 20:04 - 3382 of 3419

Cutting their losses... it's something people do... simply applying common sense to a rubbish situation

mdalos1 9 Oct '18 - 15:38 - 3389 of 3419

It's an extraordinarily dull Business that is essentially an R&D outfit dabbling in a spot of witch-doctoring and snake-oil stuff. I'm almost fully resolved to AP101 being a resounding failure

mdalos1 12 Oct '18 - 17:48 - 3416 of 3419

Bought a load more today.... this is a GIFT !

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LOL. You've CHANGED your tune! You've certainly had a "Road to Damascus conversion"! What caused this change of heart, mdalos? Time of the month? LOL.

[volsung] 12/10/2018 18:39

I think you are wise to limit your exposure papillion. Part of the problem with IMM was the blatant ramping going on with the insane valuations being quoted by certain parties. It all led to a bit of a bubble and I have to admit I got carried away with it. The analogy with wilfcat oilers is apt. I don’t mind missing a bit of the rise if P3 is a success. How much reaction in the share price if it fails given that the price is at lows presently?

[bazworth] 12/10/2018 18:20

Blasted well hope it is a gift!!

[bazworth] 12/10/2018 18:20

Blasted well hope it is a gift!!

[papillon] 12/10/2018 16:34

I can understand your reluctance to gamble on the AP101 phase III EB trial result, volsung, following on for your painful experience with IMM. The IMM share price has fallen from over 150p per share 6 months ago to a current 11.5p per share. The share price fell off the edge of a cliff around 6 months ago when the bad news was released. I know nothing about IMM apart from that dramatic fall following the failure of it's phase III drug, volsung, however I suspect it's phase III drug trial was more high risk than that of AMYT's AP101 EASE phase III trial for EB if only because AP101 (Episalvan) already has regulatory approval for the treatment of PTW's (Partial Thickness Wounds) and as AMYT's illustrious chairman has pointed out in the past EB patients suffer from PTW's.

PS. gambling on the outcome of phase III trial results has similarities with gambling on the results of wildcat oil wells. Both are very risky, speculative, investments where the CoS is often very low (often only 10-15% success rate in the case of wildcat oil wells even with the benefit of 3-D seismic)

I can't predict the performance of the AMYT share price between now and the release in December of the EASE interim analysis data, but I wont be adding during that time. Why? Well I've set a limit to how much I'm prepared to gamble on AMYT and it's 25k shares (just under £5k in money terms). Of course AMYT keep on about securing other licenses for already approved orphan drugs, like Lojuxta, but so far they appear to have drawn a blank because there is only Lojuxta. I keep hoping they will announce another deal soon, but will they be able to secure one?

[papillon] 12/10/2018 15:51

Yes, volsung, Elliot Wave Theory shows that you will miss out on the initial rise following on from a good RNS in December (That's if we get a good RNS. A BIG IF!) by being cautious, but you should still have days (and maybe weeks) remaining in which to be able to profit from a good RNS. It will all depend on the size of the initial spike up on good news (assuming we get good news!) and how high the MM's open up the share price when the market opens following the RNS.

[volsung] 11/10/2018 23:35

I have to admire your persistance papillion. You sound like an intelligent bloke so I take what you say seriously. I have most of my pf in cash now so when the phase 3 results come out I will be waiting. Unfortunately my IMM experience means I can never invest pre Phase 3 again.

[volsung] 11/10/2018 22:59

True pap and green. Maybe it will come up roses. I still observe.

[papillon] 11/10/2018 22:28

14p here we come? Completely unloved!

[greendragon777] 11/10/2018 12:58

Incredible that a company with a market cap of £446m can't pay a tax bill of just over a million. Would've been a nice little short though! :-)

If the markets keep tumbling like this we might very well end up on the baked beens Paps. Well, at least we can take comfort in the knowledge that they are at least good for us! :-)

Down another 5% today.....let's hope it's just a short term thing until the broader markets recover!

[papillon] 10/10/2018 22:30

It could be worse, greendragon! We could have been shareholders in CAKE (fortunately I'd never heard of them until today). A Mkt Cap of £446m and a fairly strong share price performance this year it was suspended before AIM opened this morning because it appears that it hasn't got the cash to pay a small tax demand of just £1.14m and HMRC has issued a winding up order. Fraud is suspected and the CFO has been suspended. Current share price 429.50p. This has strong shades of the CVR (it owned Bargain Booze) debacle earlier this year when the CVR share price collapsed from the £3 pre suspension price to ZERO as the company went bust as it didn't have the cash to pay a HMRC VAT demand of £30m.

The trouble is if a company hasn't got the cash pay a small tax bill to HMRC, their suppliers take fright and want cash up front and the money owed to them paid before they will supply any more product. They are effectively bust and the CAKE shares could be worthless like CVR.

[papillon] 10/10/2018 21:56

I can understand, greendragon, a share that has recently had a big percentage rise dropping because of the big fall in the DOW (over 830 points down, a 3.15% drop on the day) and FTSE100 (it closed down over 90 points) as nervous investors took fright and rushed to sell to preserve their paper profits and turn them into hard cash. I can't imagine there are many (IF ANY) AMYT invetors currently in profit! Definitely those who took part in the 24p & 20p placings can't be in profit. Only those who bought below todays closing price can be in profit and there can't be many (IF ANY) of them remaining who haven't already sold up and taken their profits. No, I believe that some investors, like mlados, have no confidence in a positive outcome of the EASE phase III trial. Unlike mlados they are prepared to take a loss by selling, though their timing, IMO, is abysmal.

[greendragon777] 10/10/2018 21:13

It's probably taking a bit of shrapnel from the big sell off in the markets today, Hopefully it's nothing more than that.

Will be interesting to see how the markets round the week off by Friday. The markets have been quite jittery of late.....not surprising after one of the longest bull market runs in history! 😲