Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[alphabravo321] 30/10/2018 09:45

One buy and we are blue, have we turned a little corner?

[papillon] 29/10/2018 15:35

Bronxville
Posts: 563
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 13.55
Amryt employee's Today 12:56 I see on LinkedIn Amryt now has 35 employee's signed up.
Thats alot of mouths to feed...

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The point is are they all essential to the good running & future GROWTH of AMYT including Lojuxta? Something neither you, nor I, Bronxville are qualified to say. What do they earn on AVERAGE? £100k per year, or £50k per year, or somewhere in between? 35 employees on an average of £100k pa = £3.5m pa. 35 employees on an average of £50k = £1.75m pa

It looks like Lojuxta revenue will be circa £13.5m per annum for 2018. Hence it appears AMYT can afford 35 employees, but of course it depends on how much they earn and of course one must not forget the expenses they can claim doing their work for the company.

[papillon] 29/10/2018 15:07

And still the selling continues. Hopefully those shareholders who sold 30k & 20k of AMYT shares today have made a big mistake. Only time will tell.

[papillon] 28/10/2018 11:23

I didn't forget it, mdalos. That's why I mentioned AP103, the Dublin sourced gene therapy treatment for EB.

Of course it's not my "rump" valuation of AMYT, if the EASE trial result proves negative, that counts it's the markets valuation that counts. If the EASE trial interim update proves to be unsuccessful then I expect the initial market reaction to be very negative and the share to become oversold before recovering somewhat to a more realistic valuation. Of course the EASE interim trial update could be prove to be successful and we could see a very positive market reaction and the share quicly becoming very overbought, before settling down at a much higher level than today's share price

My target short term share price range, depending on the December result, is 7p to 27p+. It wouldn't surprise me to see the AMYT share price TRIPLING from the current 13.55p to circa 40p before becoming oversold and settling down to a 27p to 35p range. bwtfdik? FINGERS CROSSED WE GET GOOD NEWS IN DECEMBER!

PS. AMYT is very much under the radar for almost all investors, apart from a few diehards like us, as the AMYT bb's on advfn & lse show. The EASE interim update, positive, or negative, especially if positive, will change that! I expect the bb's to be full of comments; the rampers and pumpers & dumpers will flock here if the news is positive and the "know it all" "told you so" brigade will flock here in droves if the news is negative!

[papillon] 27/10/2018 16:33

Fortunately I first became a FAST shareholder when it had effectively become a cash shell, mdalos and the share price was hovering around the 2p mark so I don't know much about their O&G exploration days.

However I agree with your comments on AMYT :

"so I think the Market has already priced in a large % of potential failure.

Imagine if the interim analysis provides an opportunity for positive news.... BOOOOOOM !!!"

How much remaining value the current £37.24 Mkt Cap (13.55p sp) gives to the EASE trial results I'm unable to say. I suppose the Mkt Cap (sp) could fall back to the value the market sees in Lojuxta before the results are issued in December thus giving a ZERO valuation to the EASE trial, but I somehow doubt it.

Which leaves the question of how much Lojuxta is currently worth to AMYT. If Lojuxta sales revenue is circa 15m Euro's for 2018; that's around £13.3m at current exchange rates. The Lojuxta revenue is growing. If Lojuxta sales and growth was valued at twice the annual sales revenue by the market (would it?) that would give a £26.6m Mkt Cap and an share price of 9.7p. That would give no value to AP103, or AP101 as a treatment for PTW's. However AMYT would need further cash to develop AP103.

[papillon] 26/10/2018 19:48

"what can possibly go wrong?" Everything going by your posts of a month ago, mdalos!
LOL.

PS. Have a look at the following biotech IMM, FARN & N4P charts. They'll show you what can go wrong! LOL. Both IMM & FARN had drugs in phase III trials which failed this year. Their share prices collapsed on the news. FARN had already issued a positive interim update last year and the FARN share price had already quadrupled during the month following that news. IMM was circa 150p the day before their bad news RNS; now less than 12p. FARN was circa 700p the day before their bad news RNS; now under 82p.

I don't expect the AMYT share price to suffer anywhere near such a catastrophic fall if there is bad news in December. Why? Lojuxta. AMYT already have an approved drug, Lojuxta, earning revenue and that revenue is going to grow. Also the drug in the EASE EB trial, Episalvan, has already been approved for PTW's so could also be a revenue earner. That's why I believe it's worthwhile buying AMYT shares now, even though there is a risk involved.

[papillon] 26/10/2018 14:23

And still some investors continue to sell. Though not all the trades so far today are sells; some are buys since one can buy at the lower end of the quoted spread below the arbitary mid price quoted by advfn.

Those small investors selling definitely can't be turning paper profits into cash because neither the AMYT, or the previous FAST sp's has ever been this low before! If one ignores the 1 for 8 consolidation and goes back to the FAST share price then the current 13.55p translates to 1.69p. I can assure you the FAST share price never dropped that low! So those small investors selling today are so nervous they are prepared to take a loss on their AMYT, or FAST shares (if there are any ex FAST shareholders, apart from me, still remaining).

PS I'm glad that you are prepared for bad news, alphabravo. I know I am, but I believe the potential rewards make the obvious risk worth taking. I'm still looking at a range of circa 7p to 27p for the share price in the weeks following the EASE interim update.

[alphabravo321] 26/10/2018 12:46

I am prepared for the collapse Papillon!

[papillon] 26/10/2018 11:15

Many thanks for your detailed reply, diamondstar. However even if the chance of a leak of data from the EASE trial is virtually non existent I still think of my shareholding in AMYT as a punt on the outcome of the EASE trial; interim update expected in December. A gamble I believe to be worth taking as at the current share price the potential rewards of success outweigh the risks of failure. However the Lojuxta revenue is the reason I continue to hold and gamble on the EASE trial result. Without the backstop of potential Lojuxta revenue growth I would not be holding AMYT as the share would be too much of a gamble on the EASE trial result at the current Mkt Cap.

PS. alphabravo, I've seen far too many "true believers" in AIM shares distraught when the shares they "believe" in collapse in price on the release of bad news. Look at the long term chart of any AIM O&G & biotech and the "failures" far, far, outweigh the successes. Hopefully AMYT will be one of the "successes". Fingers crossed.

[alphabravo321] 26/10/2018 08:07

Little top up for me this morning...a true believer

[greendragon777] 26/10/2018 01:01

Wow, that's pretty hardcore DS on the secrecy of the results. Based on your knowledge of the process I would be very happy that there is no leaking of the info. As you mentioned before I think it's nothing more than a side effect of general market conditions.

Anyway let's hope it's number one on the list with a continue of the study as is. Things should start getting very interesting then for AMYT and hopefully we'll all be rewarded well for our patience too!

If all goes well DS and we end up having a few celebratory pints after the interims, we'll be fighting over who gets the bill....and it certainly won't be you! 😁 I look forward to that! 😃👍

[diamondstar1] 26/10/2018 00:19

Nice to hear from you GD! Still owe you a pint if Amryt get through these interims. Paps - unlikely that the study results have been leaked previously. At the present time, the data lies in individual files, probably electronically. The study is double blinded, so the Investigators, Patients and Pharma Executives do not know the treatment allocation (i.e. who received active and who received placebo). The secret codes for unblinding are held by a few select eg, statistical programmer. At the present moment, all the data for the interim analysis have not been fully collected since database lock has likely not occurred yet. Once all the data has been collected, processed, and analysed according to the Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP), the interim EASE results should be provided to the DSMB or Data Safety Monitoring Board (and not the Directors of Amryt). The DSMB are a group of external experts (usually composed of 3 members) who will evaluate the data & provide guidance whether to: 1) continue study as is 2) increase study numbers or 3) stop study. The DSMB members are usually people of reputation with expertise in the medical field (eg, dermatologist, statistician) who are sworn to secrecy. The risk of potential leak will be minimal, due to the punishment for securities fraud i.e. jail for several years. Yes, you do hear of occasional occurrences eg, there was a statistical programmer in a Pharma company in USA a while back who leaked information to his friend. But very rare I would say, as there is a huge impact on company reputation, if any company employees are found to be involved in securities fraud.

[greendragon777] 25/10/2018 23:37

Always good to get your thoughts here Diamondstar, it carries a lot of weight. I can't deny that when I see the share price this low that it's quite disheartening. However I do remain optimistic of a positive result evident by the fact that I've increased my position recently as the share price ran down. This isn't the time to lose faith in AMYT! 😁

By your calculations we will know our fate in about 7 weeks time.....roll on mid December!

[papillon] 25/10/2018 23:12

I've NEVER been overly positive, diamondstar. As I have always stated I have no expertise and knowledge of the biopharma industry; to me AMYT has always been a pure gamble. However the calibre of the AMYT BoD gave me the confidence to buy more AMYT shares to add to the size of my gamble.

One can't ignore the AMYT chart which is a measure of investors opinion of AMYT. From the chart performance I should say investors generally lack confidence in the EASE trial result. One thing in AMYT's favour is the company doesn't appear to leak going by the dismal share price performance just before the Lojuxta & EIB loan RNS's almost 2 years ago and yet those deals must have been months in the making.

I bow to your expertise and knowledge of the biotech sector, diamondstar, but could not some of the data from the earlier trials have been leaked by some of those overseeing those earlier trials? I'm not saying there has been a leak and probably the dismal recent share price performance is solely down to current general market malaise for AIM listed biotechs and AMYT in particular.

I'm never over confident of any AIM share I have a punt on and AMYT is no exception. Sometimes my gambles come off, more often, unfortunately, they don't. Fingers crossed I get lucky again with AMYT.

[diamondstar1] 25/10/2018 22:44

Recent Amryt update on Sept 26th states that last patient for interim analysis should be recruited by end Sept 2018. Add 45 days to this, as all subjects need to be followed up for Primary Endpoint (wound healing at D45). This brings us to mid-Nov for database lock for interim analysis. Inputting data and statistical analysis for interim analysis should take about 4 weeks - this takes us to about mid December for the release of EASE interims. At present, I would say that absolutely no one knows what the results of the EASE interims are. The bearish price movement of Amryt has therefore been more related to general market conditions, and panic selling as stop losses are met. I’m personally looking forward to the interims and still feel that the interim results are much more likely to be positive, especially after the tweaks made by Amryt. Paps and Greendragon - stay positive!

[papillon] 25/10/2018 21:02

A couple of bitter posts from the HUM bb following the bad news RNS issued by the gold miner just before 4pm this afternoon. Let's hope that the bearish AMYT chart is not a precursor of bad news from AMYT.

lurker5 25 Oct '18 - 18:26 - 5405 of 5408
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This wasn't 'unpredictable' A major issue like this will have been known around the mine for a long time. The chart was telling all. Strange how many 'unpredictable' events in AIM shares are 'predicted' by share behaviour ! Seen it over and over again

ramnik007 25 Oct '18 - 18:40 - 5406 of 5408
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Yep - insiders knew, and chart was saying it all!

[papillon] 25/10/2018 12:23

bazworth 28 Sep '18 - 19:16 - 3357 of 3454
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Anyone who is feeling bored then please look at FTC. Dormant for a zillion years and then! Patience sometimes pays!

Cheers

Baz

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I was right to say be "careful", bazworth, in reply to your post. I said at the time that I found the FTC chart difficult to read for EWT, but that it had risen "strongly" over the previous couple of months on contract wins. When you made that post on 28th September the FTC share price was 29p. Today it is currently 17.40p. That's some DROP in just one month!! I hope you sold part, or all, of your FTC shares. That's why I NEVER tip shares on these bb's. Unfortunately most posters on these bb's tip other shares when they are overbought (and the RSI on the FTC chart on 28th September was DEFINITELY well overbought).

The FTC chart will have completed a very BEARISH Head & Shoulders chart pattern if the share price closes below 20p today. Possible short term target range? 10-15p. It looks like FTC could be "Dormant for" another "zillion years"

PS. With regard to AMYT it's not looking good. The chart is currently awful. Let's hope it's just a case of lack of investor interest as happened back in late 2016, when the share price last dropped below 14p, before the good news of the EIB loan and Lojuxta licensing deal were announced and not news of the upcoming EASE interim trial data leaking!! Fingers crossed. I've let my heart overrule my head here because my head has been saying LOOK AT THE BEARISH AMYT chart and sell since the chart turned bearish over a year ago. I should have sold then, but it could be too late to sell now (and hopefully it would be silly to sell now!)

[greendragon777] 24/10/2018 22:31

.....and Biotechs down over 5%

Bit of a bounce in after hours trading pm hopefully that will accelerate at the market open tomorrow!

[papillon] 24/10/2018 22:05

DOW down 2.41%, whilst Nasdaq was down 4.43%. Tech stocks are being hammered.

[greendragon777] 24/10/2018 21:32

Totally agree Paps and Biotechs got slammed in particular. We'll need to brace ourselves for another move down tomorrow but hopefully the bottom is already in on AMYT!