Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 08/3/2017 11:47

Blackgold, I won't be scared as I think it's full of oil, so no worries about high pressures here!

[blackgold00] 08/3/2017 11:47

so nt-1 test result of 20mmcfd was achieved on a more or less open flow

[tidy 2] 08/3/2017 11:25

Jay take you through the presentationhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BcnZMGqsds

[kryptonsnake] 08/3/2017 11:14

Once again anyone that sold around 5p got their shares robbed!

[haggismchaggis] 08/3/2017 11:14

Bun, and much higher pressure in N2 equates to more gas held in the reservoir.

[ngms27] 08/3/2017 11:03

BunBooster2, you know full well that you cannot.

Stop being mischievous.

[bunbooster2] 08/3/2017 10:54

Naive question for the geological people. Pre-NT2 we were looking at 200BCF as an above expectations result. Looking at the presentation today NT2 and NT1 are shown side by side. The yellow area in NT-2 is clearly about ten times the size of the tested 3.1m in NT-1 which was classified as 79 BCF. Can we draw any conclusion from that slide about the size of NT2 ie 19 * NT1 (I assume not and it's more complex).

[paulhgreen] 08/3/2017 10:51

Haggis

I dont think everyone is looking at the bigger picture,this is a significant find and will prove to be a game changer for Aminex and Solo imo.

PG

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/3/2017 10:50

haggismchaggis
8 Mar '17 - 10:44 - 61928 of 61928 0 0
perhaps there IS an oil wet portion of the well yet to be tested?

...that would make perfect sense!!!! ;-#)))

[haggismchaggis] 08/3/2017 10:44

Kryptonsnake, perhaps there IS an oil wet portion of the well yet to be tested?"Flow testing performed over a gross 34 metres interval of gas pay in what is interpreted as........ the dry gas portion of the reservoir."

[haggismchaggis] 08/3/2017 10:42

These comments indicate that we've hit a huge resource, what size? 500bcf to 1tcf? "....conclude that the Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2 area contains a significant volume of gas in place""....results of Ntorya-2 have substantially exceeded Aminex's expectations.""Strong pressure build-up occurred in all instances during the well test.""The well exceeded our pre-drill expectations for both reservoir extent and pressure.""Ntorya-2, when taken together with the Ntorya-1 discovery well and the mapped seismic features, clearly indicates a gas volume of significant commercial interest.""....further appraisal/development wells, will we believe lead to a gas development of national significance."

[datait] 08/3/2017 10:39

listening to the news and its excellent news.

[datait] 08/3/2017 10:38

It only costs you if you sell just paper loss.

[ngms27] 08/3/2017 10:37

Most of us on here have all along known that NT-3 is the prize, NT-2 is the warm up. However AEX at present haven't committed to drill NT-3, there may now be a break in drilling whilst further work / seismic is carried out if NR at Solo is to be believed.

[888icb] 08/3/2017 10:25

Malcy says the flow rate is "astonishingly good". He says AEX should go better again and that if Jay ever comes down from the ceiling he hopes to interview him. Malcy clearly remains very bullish on the prospects for the share price going forward.

[ngms27] 08/3/2017 10:24

tournesol, spot on. I wish I'd followed my head above 7p rather than hoping for a much better RNS with greater clarity. I forgot this was AEX and not SOU and it cost me.

[datait] 08/3/2017 10:20

If you cant take the heat get out the kitchen lol

[tournesol] 08/3/2017 10:17

I'm surprised at the wet finger in the air approach to valuation which is reflected in many of the comments here. That's not how II's go about things and it's them you need to be ahead of. You really need to use a proper sum-of-the parts valuation model and factor in risk. It does not take much work. You can crib a model from any analyst report.



I took a couple of analyst reports which were written before N-2 was drilled and played with their valuation models.

The critical starting assumptions/estimations provided by the analysts before I started playing around were:-

K north unrisked value = $26 million and CoS = 90%

N discovery unrisked = $36 million and CoS = 60%

N updip unrisked = $400 million and CoS = 30%

(all figures rounded)

The other assets are peanuts by comparison with the above.

Stick the above in a spreadsheet and you get a risked valuation = 3.9 pence/share.

(The above is why I bought the shares at 2p and below)


Increase the CoS of N discovery (ie reflect the success of the appraisal well) to 90% and you get a risked valuation = 4.1 pence/share.

Increase the size of the N discovery to a value of $50 million to reflect the better than expected results and you get a valuation = 4.4 pence per share.


Increase the CoS of the N updip to 40% and you get a valuation = 5.2 pence/share.

Increase the size of the N updip to 500 million and you get a valuation = 6.1 pence/share

(the above is why I sold the shares at 6.5p)


Of course we still have N-3 to look forward to. If we get a good result at the N updip drilling (ie a move from a CoS = 30% to CoS = 90%) then valuation gets to 9.5 pence and if the N updip comes in bigger/more valuable than expected then it goes beyond 11p.


I fully expect to buy in again and to do well out N-3. But after being battered by the Gods and Demons of Investing for many years, I have finally woken up to the fact that I can come off the pitch and take a rest in between the interesting bits. That might sometimes reduce my returns but it also reduces my risk and enhances returns as often as it reduces them.

[milliecusto] 08/3/2017 10:08

So much for all the mad ramping..lol

[falia] 08/3/2017 09:59

GUYS BOS FLYING

[haggismchaggis] 08/3/2017 09:56

Kryptonsnake, they didn't say any oil flowed, so there isn't any flowable oil at N2. The paragraph that isolates the mention of oil and N3 (but specifically doesn't mention gas) suggests to me that they will be looking at the potential for oil at N3 and subsequent wells. "Ntorya-2 also encountered traces of oil in the gross reservoir interval and the Company is updating its basin model to determine the optimal drilling depths for Ntorya-3 and for future development wells."

[ngms27] 08/3/2017 09:44

The oil isn't reservoired at NT-2 it's just staining / residual oil.