Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[muddy_40] 19/8/2019 23:13

and now a new issue for shale oilers, I have not seen this mentioned before.



A new study finds that shale oil and gas is behind the global rise in methane pollution over the past decade, a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.

The study, published in Biogeosciences, was able to separate methane emissions from conventional versus unconventional drilling, as well as methane from other “biogenic” sources, such as agriculture or wetlands. “This recent increase in methane is massive,” Robert W. Howarth of Cornell University, the author of the study, said in a statement. “It’s globally significant. It’s contributed to some of the increase in global warming we’ve seen and shale gas is a major player.”

[bountyhunter] 19/8/2019 22:55

Things do seem to be a bit different for shale right now compared to the last year or so (admittedly partly due to the lower oil price).



It's a bit of a conundrum with some of the largest oil companies in the world diverting significant resources into shale.

[xxnjr] 19/8/2019 22:44

Nonsense. Just look at the EIA numbers. Everything else is noise. How long have you been predicting the demise of shale. 3 yrs or more, is it?, of being wrong!

Pathetic. Quoting a peak oil scare story from 2009.

[xxnjr] 19/8/2019 19:39

Anyone concerned about the impact of US Shale on the price of oil, and their investments in E&P can always look at the output numbers from the EIA



The Drilling Productivity Report



as well as The Weekly Petroleum Status Report



It's always interesting to hear the various bullish and bearish arguments for US Shale, but at the end of the day, the only thing that matters are output numbers.

[brucie5] 19/8/2019 18:53

philjeans
19 Aug '19 - 15:05 - 23196 of 23202
0 1 0
Yes - still way undervalued!

Added again
------------------------------
I hope you know what you're doing, Philjeans.
;)

[tyler durden1] 19/8/2019 17:39

Naughty Charlie changing the goalposts.

Where did you ever give the name of a company buying up legacy wells, which was after all the question?

This is what you posted: "There are companies out there making money out of the legacy assets, gas and oil..."

This was my reply: "Name ONE company making money out of the shale legacy assets (apart from lawyers)?
The legacy assets are not sold off, but kept on the books producing less and less oil as otherwise they would require millions to properly decommission."

Not a politician are you...swerving from accuracy as I don't recall any post answering it.

You are still wrong in your inference that companies buying up bankrupt companies can then trade profitably because they have bought up. They cannot escape Red Queen Syndrome, so all the wells in the inventory they buy up won't stop them needing to drill more and more new wells with the Capex that requires just to hold the production let alone increase it. Yes production can be increased along with the losses as the bankruptcies are showing up. Even Exxon and co. still refer after decades in shale as breaking even soon...they've are down to the tune of billions of dollars in that time, and as experts suggest even corroborated by Pioneer Resources Tier 1 acres are all but done.

[davwal] 19/8/2019 17:07

Once again the bots suddenly took it south near the end of play. Another day another fraction for the traders..

[rollthedice] 19/8/2019 17:02

Positive comment for today... share price went up a smidgen

[lucyp00p] 19/8/2019 16:53

I know nothing about fracking but is it economic to pause fracking once it starts? One would imagine the process generates a lot of waste which would clog up the works if the process wasn't continuous. With that in mind, production would continue regardless of price, effectively driving the investors off a cliff at these rates.

[charlieeee] 19/8/2019 16:32

Tyler

I provided you with the name of a quoted company, who are now moving into unconventional assets.

I am not invested in DGOC, but they presented a model where their specialist skills turn adversity into opportunity eg. they have a decommissioning team on a rolling basis and that offers significant savings in contrast to the ad hoc use of expensive sub contract teams. Ditto maintenance. It is all about economies of scale and planning. Many a successful business have those fundamentals as a bedrock and succeed where others fail.

Like you, I believe that the shale industry should fail, but it just defies expectations and probably will continue to do so, as new companies replace the failures.

It will be interesting to see the appetite of companies such as OXY for AMER's solid assets in the politically stable Colombia.

[tyler durden1] 19/8/2019 15:35

Charlie

No there are not

"In 2017, there were one million active oil and gas wells in the United States.1 When a well reaches the end of its productive life, or if it fails to find economic quantities of oil or gas, the well operator is required by regulators to remove all equipment and plug the well to prevent leaks.2 "

Productive life is why these wells are left, even though they are losing money. They are not viable, but by keeping them on they save millions but wreak havoc on the lands they are on.

They also use the trick of designating wells as Idle because then they can push back even further the cost of properly decommissioning the well.

The reason I'm interested in Shale is because of its artificial impact on WTI and by implication its effect on Amerisur and other non shale oil companies.

Name ONE company making money out of the shale legacy assets (apart from lawyers)?
The legacy assets are not sold off, but kept on the books producing less and less oil as otherwise they would require millions to properly decommission.

A shale well is not like a conventional well with a nodding donkey. It requires heavier maintenance and the water cut often increases. In the Delaware Basin alone they found water cut increased by 70-72% since 2016. This water is often a toxic mix and of course they don't dispose of it, but pump it into pits, as the cost of disposing of it is high.

If they can't make money on shale at Peak Production they certainly can't make money when the wells are producing 50bbls a day when the wells still require maintenance and where if anything these wells are left causing havoc to the land because.

[philjeans] 19/8/2019 15:05

Yes - still way undervalued!

Added again

[charlieeee] 19/8/2019 15:05

Tyler Durden

Settlement date is nothing whatsoever to do with shorting.

It is simply the term used for money changing hands after a purchase or sale.

It is longer re "T" trading, where stock is bought, but not paid for until some time later than the standard 2 days.

X-O Ltd (Jarvis: JIM) used to give 25 days (ie 5 working weeks) but that was reduced to the standard 20 days as per your post.

Standard settlement (2 days) is usually applied to sales and funds are always applied to settlement of purchases in date order.

You do seem obsessed with shale companies. Whilst I agree that they defy the basic laws of capitalism, it could be a long time before the chickens come home to roost in a world of printed money and negative interest rates.

The assumption has to be that shale will fill the gap between old and new technologies, until the USA embraces climate change alternatives: political expediency.

There are companies out there making money out of the legacy assets, gas and oil, content to milk the end of the decline curve and with operating efficiency built into the business model (and no high initial capex) such as DGOC (interesting company, with a good dividend philosophy of returning profits to shareholders,but share price trend currently not encouraging).

[spudders] 19/8/2019 15:01

Monday whooooshhh ?

[tyler durden1] 19/8/2019 13:14

Important to remember that with shale even if a company goes bust and is bought for peanuts it doesn't alter much. It might alter their previous debt, but the problem with shale is the ONGOING costs and legacy declines which don't alter even if the company is bought for a packet of nuts its still a hiding to nothing and still doesn't change the need for more and more cash to drill more and more wells, usually after tier 1 acreage has already been exhausted, and yes you can raise production....producing oil way under cost, but you can only do it for so long. Even the big players are not making money and some have been at shale for over a decade and have spent billions of dollars, yet to make a cent profit.

So the idea that if a shale company bust someone else can buy it up and immediately make a profit. WRONG.

"Year-to-date 26 North American exploration and production (E&P) companies have filed for bankruptcy, the law firm said, noting a sharp uptick since its last report in May. That compares to 28 total last year and 24 total in 2017. Haynes and Boone, which represents E&P, midstream and oilfield service (OFS) companies, began tracking filings in 2015 following the 2014 commodities downturn."

[tyler durden1] 19/8/2019 12:42

Unless otherwise agreed with the Exchange a member firm shall not agree a settlement due date for an on Exchange trade more than 20 days after the date of the trade.

[charlieeee] 19/8/2019 11:39

There are 7.5 million stock on loan and so a greedy hard core were caught short.

To a large extent, it is not the market makers, who generally balance their books on an ongoing basis (although, within a day, of course, they exhibit the full range of tricks to collect and offload stock, as their book balancing exercise requires).

Obviously, they did take advantage of the RH/FIL sell offs, knowing that stock sold would be replaced from a seemingly endless supply, but a month into this sales process and they will have corrected any deficit: they are in for the margin, not the speculation game.

[w.h.t.] 19/8/2019 10:33

Good Morning All
Do you all not think that our BoD would look very incompetent to say the least if a GOOD DEAL was not completed, having advised shareholders last week and I quote "shareholders are STRONGLY recommended to take NO action in respect of their shares until completion of the formal sale process"
Since then the share price has been in my opinion shorted to shake the tree, I believe mm's are short of shares.
If these large institutions were fearful of a drop back to pre.offer rate of 12p because a deal was not going to be agreed,do you not think they would sell millions of shares not the odd % or part and buy them back at 12p ??
Only my thoughts of course do your own research and there are far more knowledgeable posters on this thread than me.
I have been a shareholder of amer for several years and I have not posted before just read the threads with interest, but I felt we needed to calm down a bit none of us know what is being sorted we can only act on firm comments by the board or those actually in the know.
Sorry to go on but I wont bore you again for another few years

[lucyp00p] 19/8/2019 10:32

Yes, that was me. If I buy $10,000 of pesos to pay my staff, that's a staff cost of $10,000 and is reflected in the p&l as staff costs $10,000. Any currency movement is irrelevant. However, if I buy $20,000,000 of pesos as I expect the dollar to fall, and then sell them back for $17,500,000 because I made an error, then the dollar difference is my realised currency loss. The point I was making is that the first trade is normal business activity, the second is not. Furthermore, relative to our profit of $4.4mm, the $2.5 million loss is staggering - effectively wiping out >7 months of profit. There was no mention of how we lost this money in the accounts and if I was a suspicious man I might say it was disguised remuneration hidden in a line item so low on the statement that nobody would notice. For instance, I could sell my business $1,000 for £2,000 and trouser the 2 grand. I could then buy the $1,000 back for £800. Voila, my business has a currency loss of £1,200, I have a profit of same and nobody asks how.

[tyler durden1] 19/8/2019 09:36

Few weeks/months back some were disputing forex details as being not relevant to Amerisur. Amerisur deals in dollars, but it must have to pay a lot of its Colombian outgoings in Colombian pesos.

[bigwavedave] 19/8/2019 08:44

99p by Christmas.

[tyler durden1] 19/8/2019 08:22

A move to 25p by 30th August

[blackdown2] 18/8/2019 21:48

Be negative if you want to. This company is going to be acquired for a decent price before the end of 2019.