Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sji] 17/8/2019 18:40

What about this?!

- Transportation of third party oil commenced in May 2019 -

hxxps://www.amerisurresources.com/investor-centre/investment-case

Hope it's NOT true as otherwise our Plat production is even lower than the OBA output being reported!

[moneylender] 17/8/2019 18:35

Sloppy website details, for instance we are told our bank is HSBC at 97 Bute street Cardiff, CF10 5NA. That building has been empty for over 2 years and is currently
being converted into flats.

I might buy one if we get to

£1 by Xmas.

[xxnjr] 17/8/2019 18:01

I think we've exhausted this discussion.
Let's see if the numbers drop!

[tyler durden1] 17/8/2019 17:54

What is it that you're missing?

Yes production might rise, but its still costing more than they sell it for, so its not viable commercial production and certainly not sustainable without Fed intervention.

Investors are reluctant to cough up more money. Banks won't government might? Why is that?

Look production numbers mean nothing if they are bloated by loss leader oil because not only is it not sustainable, even some of the most optimistic companies are now admitting that the Tier 1 acreage is exhausted (sweet spots).

How much would oil be if it did not include deliberately contrived non profit making shale...Take all the suggested shale output of over 4,000,000bbls a day off world production? What glut? A shortage. There is a shortage of viable economically produced oil.

The bigger players are only kept going by profitable oil elsewhere, but even some of the bigger players admit they have never made a dime profit on shale, its always tomorrow.

[xxnjr] 17/8/2019 17:24

Fair enough TDI. But let's see if there is an actual reversal. Even the article you quote from goes on to say

"However, oil and gas production volumes from both Texas and the nation as a whole are at record highs and still rising."

[brucie5] 17/8/2019 15:23

Just reviewing ASHKV's post, re. Stifel valuation:


Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)

Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share (Risked) according to Stifel

Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p>

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Anyone care to hazard a likely buy out price should the sale go through?

[xxnjr] 17/8/2019 14:55

I just look at the numbers ;-)

Last week Lower 48 production increase by 100K* bopd over the prior week


* rounded to nearest 100K, so increase could be as low as 51K

[tyler durden1] 17/8/2019 13:30

Bankruptcies accelerating in U.S. shale sector.

"The number of oil and gas bankruptcy filings through mid-August has nearly equaled the total tally from 2018, and the aggregate debt from 2019 bankruptcy filings of almost $20 billion has already surpassed the roughly $17 billion from a year ago, according to the energy bankruptcy monitor maintained by the Houston law firm Haynes and Boone."

Sanchez Energy are the latest to file.

That's what happens when you pretend you can produce oil at $30 but pay $80 and sell at $50.

The market only looks at total production missing the fact that shale is a Ponzi loss leader and the chickens are starting to come home to roost.

the only reason for it is to put pressure on WTI prices by increasing non viable oil production creating the illusion (which is exactly what its about) that there is a glut of oil.

Harold Hamm known as the Shale King even comments on it.

In the first quarter of 2019 (Rystad Energy report), the gap between Capex and CFO (cash flow from operating activities) reached a staggering $4.7 billion, i.e. the money spent drilling oil outpaced the return from the oil by $4.7billion.

Even Pioneer Resources known for its overly optimistic stance on shale is now downgrading its potential as tier 1 acreage is exhausted (Sweet Spots).

Concho has seen its price smashed after its reduced well spacings resulted in not only less oil from the new wells, but from existing wells...over saturated drilling making even greater losses.

No doubt with zero interest rates back on the agenda again to prop up this loss leading oil production will continue to rise, but people should be asking is viable oil production rising? It's not.

This makes the very real prospect that when shale fails as it will, there will be a massive shortfall in world oil production.

[xxnjr] 16/8/2019 17:49

Investec bought 1,500,000 on the 15th
Investec sold 1,494,000 on the 15th

for a net gain of 6000 yesterday.

Either it was that, or it's under the radar.

ps.... can't understand Grandeur's 2 last filings

seem to have sold 1,583,465, but only say they sold 146,113 which co-incidentally was the number they said they sold the day before!

[mortgage freeman] 16/8/2019 17:48

Unfortunately probably a sell going off the price and action. Obviously they have all been bought.What we need is II's putting in orders for millions of shares.

[fatgreek] 16/8/2019 17:23

2 days in a row I've noticed a one million buy come in

[rollthedice] 16/8/2019 17:00

I'm positive I have been positive about AMER indeed I was positive that my AMER shares went into the positive for a few hours only a few trading periods ago. Unfortunately that proved a fleeting experience.

[eddie_yates] 16/8/2019 16:55

Hmmmmm I’m not so sure about that!!

[rollthedice] 16/8/2019 16:49

Yes, on positive results, positive news, positive price movements.... generally positive stuff :)

[blackdown2] 16/8/2019 16:43

Do you ever say anything positive about anything?

[rollthedice] 16/8/2019 16:37

Finishes on the days low 17.4. Disappointing week overall with no rise or operational news.

[tonyrelaxes] 16/8/2019 16:26

They hardly encouraged Val and two others, following four of us (representing over 20% of shares in issue) seeking a meeting so the BoD could "engage" with us so they might "better understand [our] thinking" and "reasoning".

A carefully laid trap resulting in FCA fines running to six figures.

A smile, yes, but a very, very wry one!



No lesser respect to the other two, but for Val's memory alone, I will remind us all of this whenever appropriate.

[quidnunc] 16/8/2019 16:03

Here you go Tony:
"The Group dispatches the notice of its Annual General Meeting, together with a description of the items of special business, at least 21 days before the meeting and shareholders are encouraged to participate. Each substantially separate issue is the subject of a separate resolution and all shareholders have the opportunity to put questions to the Board at the AGM. All of the Company’s Directors attended the AGM to answer questions which were relevant to their responsibilities.

The Company has also decided to engage with all key shareholders, including those that had not voted in support of the Board’s recommendations to better understand their thinking on the issues in question; this will continue for 2019. This is to understand their reasoning and see to what extent their position can be accommodated by the Board."

Is that a smile I see?
Q.

[tonyrelaxes] 16/8/2019 15:44

AB
I would be very surprised if the BoD did not get the full voting figures. Particularly in view of the adverse publicity ahead of the AGM concerning GC's re-election being opposed by substantial holder(s).

It took 4 or 5 hours, unusually long for the AMER AGM result, for the RNS announcing "all resolutions passed"


Just to add another conspiracy theories - we've tried on 2 PCs and 2 phones but the new website cannot be opened from here. Is the Russian address/server blocked by AMER or is Russia blocking AMER?

[lauders] 16/8/2019 14:45

I agree with you bigwavedave! New website much better. More modern and "with it". Just shows you can't make everyone happy and many opinions exist. It what makes the world what it is! One thing is for sure, we will have some type of update on 12th September:

Not that long to wait in the grand scheme of things!

[lucyp00p] 16/8/2019 13:36

How much do you think it costs?