Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[foiledagain] 12/8/2019 09:19

Lucy. Full listing. Bang on the money. That's what I would want.

[foiledagain] 12/8/2019 09:16

But that is where your argument seems to falter?

You've only owned Amerisur shares for a year or just over, so when you suggest you lost faith in our BoD after being promised so much and got only a little, it seems strange to say the least, because many of us were losing faith much earlier than that (tic) but still realised the potential that existed.

So you bought knowing the BoD promised more than they were delivering?

As for Amerisur choosing to put it up for sale...I don't think so.

It seems to me they were pushed as its more than coincidence Ironveld are under same process.

JW and GC made it known on many occasion they would put the company up for sale, and last year GC suggested he would be open to realistic offers, but he made clear what his view of realistic was, and it was certainly not 24p 25p 34p 38p.

[sji] 12/8/2019 09:00

FoiledAgain - good write-up with some good points but unlikely to happen. Since it was the BOD of AMER that suggested the FSP, for me, it indicates that they want to cash their chips and move on. Imagine if after showing off their cards (by providing inside information about AMER to their competitors), they continue with business as usual. It doesn't make sense for me. If they wanted to continue for another 4 years, they would have just rebuffed M&P and prepared their defence in case of a hostile bid. On the contrary, they invited others to join the bidding!

I feel that it's the end of the line for AMER as an independent company. Let's hope that at least we get a decent takeover price. As you may have induced, I lost faith in our BOD after being promised so much and got only a little!

[foiledagain] 12/8/2019 08:38

sji. As do those who seem prepared to accept 24p 34p etc. etc. missing a much better prize imo and in the not too distant future.

Much is made about governance and the BoD responsible for the drop in sp, and I've never held back with criticism of them.

In the situation of the last few years they were on a hiding to nothing and yes RH disposals did the damage, as others who were in then noted how even good news made no difference to the dropping share price which dragged other holders to sell and gave carte blanche to others spread betting and leveraged who knew precisely RH's disposals as the majority of funds and even brokers get reports daily of changes in beneficial ownership on any company they wish to monitor, but where this is not usually available to the 'ordinary' shareholder.

In that time was there any benefit in good news, or rushing drills, when oil prices were still really low and where any good news was absorbed in an instant making no difference to the share price, so the BoD in my opinion did something else: looked to the longer view and in that time negotiated some pretty decent lease acquisitions and farm ins.

Did they make mistakes you bet they did. Too bloody generous to themselves for a start, and the bottleneck in the pipeline never mentioned but which they might not even have known about, but where expending money on an OBA getting cross border agreement was amazing but where the Chiritza pumping station expenditure etc., was almost a fait accomplis by Ecuador, but a drop in the ocean over time for Amerisur, but where others will see the potential there too, whereas I would prefer Amerisur to see it.

Interesting today to see RNS at Ironveld, which almost mirrors the process at Amerisur and which tends to suggest pressure on the BoD to sell both, or else it was always strategy, but we know that is not the case with regards the price.

I would like to see Amerisur continue for at least four more years, by which time shale will be seen for what it is, a loss leader, and where even with EV's, renewables etc., there simply is not enough oil to go around without the artificial inclusion of loss leading shale.

For me that's a valid reason to ignore 24p 25p 34p 38p in favour of a much more substantial reward.

[xxnjr] 12/8/2019 08:31

JW doing more IRONing.

[sji] 12/8/2019 08:19

FoiledAgain - I was just replying to this message:

dayway12311 Aug '19 - 23:45 - 22938 of 22951

Sji there you go again with your expectations, how many times must you persist in trying to value Amerisur at 25p I’ll say it again!! you are unqualified to value this company. There are some LTI’s that have probably paid more than this, that bought into amerisur with a belief in this venture. So have some respect for them, instead of just thinking of yourself.

I was not assuming anything!

And it's good for you that I can make you smile because some posters here make me want to cry!

[foiledagain] 12/8/2019 08:10

ski. You do make me smile in some of the assertions.

Why is it you believe that LTH are in at a higher level than you? Some here bought at 2p, and quite a few more LTH's at around 4p.

I know you may have only been a holder for a year, but making assumptions on what LTH's paid isn't helpful or accurate.

[foiledagain] 12/8/2019 08:06

24p 34p 38p

None of these figures represents the real prize at Amerisur IMO.

I'm not enthused nor will I vote for anything like it.

[davwal] 12/8/2019 07:45

Well, I shall be doing very nicely with Eco Atlantic today, having already done pretty well. First drill and a big find...

[dayway123] 12/8/2019 07:43

Sji I never said in my comment that LTH’s are better qualified than you either, can you not read!! You are intent on dampening any expectation. I had seriously mistaken you for a troll, but now I’m beginning to think you’re a complete and utter numpty.

[sji] 12/8/2019 07:22

dayway123 - all you said in your comment was that LTH are more qualified than me because they have been here much longer than me. And you even told me to respect their opinion even though they do not respect mine! And you are calling me an idiot! Well, enough said!

davway123, ashkv, lucyp00p - all LTH's who offend any poster who has a different opinion from theirs. Birds of a feather .... I understand their frustration if AMER had to go so cheap after waiting for so many years to realise their investment. However, if this had to happen, they should direct their anger towards our incompetent BOD and not fellow investors who can accept a lower price just because, fortunately for them, they joined the boat at a later stage.

[ashkv] 12/8/2019 07:00

Great article on slowdown in US Shale Production -->

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Permian-Slowdown-Could-Start-In-202021020.html

[ashkv] 12/8/2019 07:00

It seems GBPUSD is about to trade below key 1.20 level. Remember per Amerisur RNS - don't sell out CHEAP. Re valuation case by Stifel - junior banker for Amerisur for Strategic review. Share price when Stategic Review announced around 17p -so 100% premium from that level given GBPUSD has also falled by about 5% since 19 July is very achievable!!!

The super weak exchange rate has to got to make a 37p low case valuation specified by Stifel a shoo in!!!

GBPUSD 1.255 on 19 July when strategic review RNS published - now almost 4.5% lower. So even the 17p buyout offer from M&P is now equivalent to GPBUSD of 18p!!!

FT Alphaville free to register -
and not only is there the written analysis from Stifel on the live blog but also a pic of the detailed Risked & Unrisked Valuation per Stifel Analysts

For CORE NAV Stifel has on a Risked Basis for Amerisur p/share (on a net basis) -
Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)

Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share (Risked) according to Stifel

Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p

I would be over the moon with Stifel Target price of 37.3p per the above non-published note excerpted in FT Alphaville!!! Excellent elaboration of the potential upside for Amerisur. Check out yourself on FT Alphaville (Free to register)

[dayway123] 12/8/2019 06:53

Sji read my comments properly. I didn’t say you were unqualified to value the company because you bought your shares at 15p. I said you were unqualified to value this company at 25p or for that matter any other value. And again don’t go making assumptions as to what I paid for my holding, lots of us here have averaged down. I also am not being rude when I call you an idiot.

[sji] 12/8/2019 04:58

dayway123 - sorry for being rude to you but what a stupid comment (no. 22938)! You tell me that I am not qualified enough to value AMER because I bought relatively recent at 15p (around 12 months ago) and there are more LTI here (presumably, including yourself) who are more qualified than me just because they have bought at much higher prices than I did in the believe that they were doing a very good investment and now they are showing losses on their investment?! In investing, we ALL do mistakes but apparently, not all of us are ready to admit it!

[xxnjr] 12/8/2019 00:55

Anyone with a watering can, apply here

[krobertson878] 12/8/2019 00:01

Ft alpha vile hints at 37p possible. Should be buyers around in the morning.

[techtrader5] 11/8/2019 23:59

Nice Inverse Head & Shoulders forming over the last 18mths almost complete with right shoulder rising to 20p. A bit of operational good news or an increased bid is all that’s needed. Tgt price would then be 30.5p 👍

[dayway123] 11/8/2019 23:45

Sji there you go again with your expectations, how many times must you persist in trying to value Amerisur at 25p I’ll say it again!! you are unqualified to value this company. There are some LTI’s that have probably paid more than this, that bought into amerisur with a belief in this venture. So have some respect for them, instead of just thinking of yourself.

[juuunx2] 11/8/2019 22:04

Thanks for your inputs Q and BH. I thought it may be longer than I had hoped we will see. I'm here until the end whatever and looks like there will finally be some profit for my patience. Im sure all the Long term holders will be rewarded in due course.

[bountyhunter] 11/8/2019 21:53

>>the game will be decided by large institutes who have suffered for a long time and they are just waiting to get out at a reasonable price.

That just about sums it up. After watching my investment slump from 18p to 12p I would be mighty relieved to get out for 25p to be honest, although I realise that many of those who paid more and have suffered longer will have a different view. Of course I would be delighted with a higher price, but everyone invested here is entitled to their own opinion and all views should be respected.

Yes months rather than weeks, I agree on that.
I am a bit suspicious as to how quickly Indico-2 may now progess in the circumstances.

[quidnunc] 11/8/2019 21:48

Months rather than weeks. There's a lot of DD to be done by possible suitors and then at the same time they have to figure how to integrate it into their current business model and how to price it and bid to ensure win win for their shareholders and our existing if their offer is part cash part shares. The last company sale I was involved in took three years from the get go to the heave ho. Q

[loftyman147] 11/8/2019 21:42

I've yet to see any share price react to cost avoidance and/or savings in the same way to the equivalent amount recorded as additional profit. While I remember when we traded at 64p it was also when oil was $120 a barrel, so even though our costs have fallen we were making about $2m a week more than what we are now, and we had less shares in issue.