Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[moneylender] 18/10/2017 12:31

20.825p to sell, tick up not far away!

[tsmith2] 18/10/2017 12:14

will clear

[value viper] 18/10/2017 12:00

buy after buy after buy ; so obviously still a seller

[the dark horse] 18/10/2017 12:00

Martin- your post brought back pleasant memories, particularly IRCambridge charts that were my introduction in the mid eighties. In those mad pre-internet days a trading chum of mine built a teletext reader that effectively took a snap of the page every minute to get the Ftse level and transposed the data onto a chart - we thought that was heaven compared to waiting for a OHLC from an overnight modem feed!Lucy - your post beautifully sums up why I prefer charts to fundamental analysis as I fully agree that the fundamentals point to a higher price but the market just doesn't yet agree. So the harsh reality is demand and supply is the key,just like any market, and Amer has been in oversupply of shares mode imo.I haven't checked back but whilst we are all keen to blame Rex I seem to recall a deal where we paid largely in shares and maybe they are the ones who have been feeding the market?Anyhow, whatever your leaning, we all want, and seem to be finally getting, a stronger share price :))

[bigwavedave] 18/10/2017 11:52

eggbacon - that's a very good summary. Thanks.

Lucy - and what you said!

[al101uk] 18/10/2017 11:50

I guess my general point is that there are no absolutes in investing, it's what makes it fun... even in fundamental analysis you have issues with revenue recognition, depreciation of assets, even cash flow can be misleading if a company stores up lack of investment in their balance sheet or mis-directs on capex vs opex. As for "profits"... ha! Unless it's paid to shareholders in the form of dividends or you have a stonking and verifiable return on investment over the long term it's just as illusory as any price.

Just as in TA it's about building a picture and when that picture is complete it's easy to see if someone has changed some of the pieces.

[juuunx2] 18/10/2017 11:40

Marnewton I am glad to see I'm not the only grump! Your viewpoint is very interesting but I tend to just go by the basic fundamentals etc. Mainly as I don't understand charting to be honest. Got my largest ever holding here of any stock so looking forward to the next positive news flow and pushing on forward. 28p by xmas was my call but given the week we are having I could of gone higher me thinks. ATBMart

[davwall] 18/10/2017 11:23

Crikey, the OBA a year old already - will there be a cake..? (Preferably one we can have And eat!)

[lucyp00p] 18/10/2017 11:14

In 9 days we can celebrate the 1st anniversary of the OBA. 12 months ago the oil price was about the same, there was a suggestion pipeline capacity could be 50kbpd from an initial low base suggested at 5kbpd. Since then well production has increased, £:$ has fallen, CPO5 has come in along with other new finds and peace has broken out in the region with the blessing of the Pope no less. OBA volumes are picking up too. So the only downside is RODA capacity which we are told is being addressed. SP, however is down by about 40%. I'm clearly missing something, as I've intimated before. Rex can't possibly be relevant any longer, and short positions are insignificant. Perhaps the market anticipated a bid when the pipeline opened? Logically, everything else being equal we are half the price we should be.

[davwall] 18/10/2017 11:08

Buyers who held off and waited for the recent retrace will probably feel it's now time to get in. It's looking a bit that way, and they should!

[mintington] 18/10/2017 11:04

A nice Thursday RNS on any of the below, like the old days would help give a decent leg-up through 25pSuccessful Plat 25 drillFormal Agreement to increase OBA pipeline capacity Update on Mariposa -1 LTT and expected P1/P2 reservesThen in two weeks time Octobers production figures breaching 200,000 barrels

[tsmith2] 18/10/2017 10:19

Pop to 25p coming

[john henry] 18/10/2017 10:07

What do you think Mar initial target 25p from the break of the cup and handle.

[croasdalelfc] 18/10/2017 09:40

So what are the charts saying about POO ? Probable upside $2/3 by Xmas?

[marnewton] 18/10/2017 09:25

juuunx, I'm grumpy without man flu; I'm married with children;¬)


al, I think the word you should have challenged was 'ONLY'¬) What about volume? Time? And for 'fundamental fundamentalists', cash?

Perhaps 'absolute' was a poor choice of words? Maybe? But (as a 'chart fundamentalist'¬) I can't think of another.

And I was grumpy and eager to get out to enjoy the sun - which I'll be doing again this morning...lovely here.

But it is ALL in the price (as you so eloquently put in paragraph three of #4648), however fleeting.

All those prices come together to build a picture. My preferred picture format is the candlestick. Even the most fleeting price on a day is in there, somewhere between the high and the low.

Some charts might miss some of those prices, which is why I pay. Rubbish in, rubbish out. Although there's a whole other argument about free charts being used by the mass of PIs on AIM to make their decisions. Large caps are a different matter, with institutions making up the bulk of trades.

As you say interpretation is so very subjective, albeit with a web of rules, each of which has to be weighed as to its importance on a chart by chart basis. More art than science.

But, at the end of the day all I want is a buy trigger (with a built in stop-loss), and a sell trigger.

ATB

M


Backgound, for those interested: I used to be a fundamentalist, but in the early nineties, living in the States, I couldn't easily follow my investments. This was pre-internet, letters took a week and the FT on the West Coast three days. So I got a telephone based feed of prices (costly), plotted my own charts on those originally supplied by Investment Research of Cambridge, and took charting lessons in the lovely Transamerica building.

Now all I need is the gist of a good story and a chart. I'm 'fundamentally' lazy.

And charts are the only way (in my view) to trade indices, where I take a wage and have done since the late nineties.

[lucyp00p] 17/10/2017 22:04

Westie your tan does not need a top up!

[davwal] 17/10/2017 21:44

Sub: Tender for Sale of Crude Oil from Mariposa-1 Well during LTT
Bids are invited for sale of Crude Oil Ex-Wellhead at Mariposa-1 Well during the Long Term
Testing (LTT) period, seeking best irrevocable and unconditional quote as per the terms and
conditions given below: -
1. SELLER
ONGC VIDESH LIMITED SUCURSAL COLOMBIANA,
Calle 110 No. 13-76, Piso 8,
Bogota, Colombia
2. QUALITY
API quality : API of 40.5°
BSW : upto 1%
Sulfur : upto 0.5%.
The penalization / escalation for any variation in the above parameters will be governed as
per the values given in the table in clause 6.2.
3. QUANTITY
The volumes of delivery shall depend on the volumes available to ONGC Videsh Sucursal
Colombiana (THE SELLER). THE SELLER shall make available to THE BUYER those volumes of
CRUDE OIL that the SELLER informs the buyer for each nomination on a daily basis:
Likewise, the BUYER shall be obligated to receive those volumes of CRUDE OIL nominated on
a daily basis.
The expected flow rate is 3200 bopd or more during the Long Term Testing (LTT) of Mariposa-
1 well, which will be available for lifting by the BUYER. The lifting quantity may depend on flow
of the oil from the well. Seller gives no guarantee for delivery volumes but these volumes are
of best estimate basis only. .

The above lifted from the latest tender posted by ONGC V (dated 25/09). Contract (initially 6 months) to be awarded late October.

[westmoreland lad] 17/10/2017 21:33

JUUUNX2 is probably on the money. In the mean time I'm off to the sun again. Good luck ALL and be nice to one and another !

[bigwavedave] 17/10/2017 21:28

This share has always been "a quid by Christmas." ;-)

[al101uk] 17/10/2017 21:21

Lucyp00p,

All of my falling knives are Amerisur also... lucky us ;-)

[johncb] 17/10/2017 20:53

Now that's a question I'll go hopefully 32p

[juuunx2] 17/10/2017 20:42

Ok just for a bit of fun let's have a guess the price by xmas. Anyone in? I'm going for 28p. Rally to 30p then bit of xmas profit taking and hopefully push on in new year. Any ideas?

[lucyp00p] 17/10/2017 17:40

No, all my knives have Amerisur on them. As Bill Clinton famously said, "it's the oil price stupid" - and I'm not defending earlier buying decisions but 16p? I'm not saying it wouldn't have gone lower but it was always coming back.