Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[farview1] 15/11/2019 07:19

Can someone explain what they have seen please ?

[floatupstream] 15/11/2019 07:18

That's a proper stitch-up

[wskill] 15/11/2019 07:18

Poor behaviour from management but that is the AIM market they always fill their own pockets first ,pity they left nothing for shareholders.

[pauliewonder] 15/11/2019 07:16

Glad this is almost over. Fed up

[ulvers] 15/11/2019 07:14

Agreed moneylender, sold down the river!

[mirabeau] 15/11/2019 07:11

Had a few left but be grateful if you're in profit. We are in no position to argue with the market. Take the cash and find another home for your equity and reflect on the possibility that you could have been a shareholder at ECO, TLW or any other clusterfluck we have seen over the last few months.

[dan de lion] 15/11/2019 07:10

Not quite as much as has been forecast then,

[moneylender] 15/11/2019 07:08

GC has sold us down the river

[martin1962] 15/11/2019 07:06

That is rubbish. Is all I have to say.

[xxnjr] 14/11/2019 23:59

If you believe the data, where they are not accurate figures but guesstimates often being revised downwards 3 months after. Fair enough TDI!

Here's the 'Weekly Data Set', the one the market uses because it is, as you say, a forecast, or an indication of where we are going



That estimated Aug 2019 at 12,360,000 bopd (ave of the 5 weeky values)

Here's the latest available 'Monthly Data Set', which is your preferred report, as it's a more accurate measurement of actual production, published with a 3 month delay.



August 2019 Actual 12,365,000 bopd.

The weekly 'forecast' was pretty much bang on.

The market is forward looking. Not backward looking. It's the weekly report that's more important for the oil price, even though you may feel it is fake news. I'll now shut up. Will let you know if and when the Monthly attains 13,000,000 bopd. Maybe in 6 to 9 months time?

I'm still patiently waiting for Indico-2, and other matters!

[bryet] 14/11/2019 22:08

Think most of us Lths will be more than glad when this is all over promises promises and not many kept must be close now until we know our fate it would be good to get a nice Xmas present but on past results don't bet on it well done to those still buying but you must have nerves of steel mine shredded long ago good luck all.

[acv74] 14/11/2019 19:44

Yep, if we don't get a sale we have wasted 6 months or more

[tyler durden1] 14/11/2019 19:27

underperform

well it's true isn't it. How many wells drilled?

That's where some facts miss out others, i.e. FSP.

[tommygriff] 14/11/2019 19:17

Maybe the potential purchaser is represented by RBC

[acv74] 14/11/2019 18:55

5 weeks as of tomorrow since the last update.I can only imagine final negotiations are taking place at the moment.I don't understand the broker target of 17p for several reasons.

[tommygriff] 14/11/2019 17:07

Surely with no field activity going on the cash pile must have grown £30m over the last 6 months?

[tyler durden1] 14/11/2019 16:54

If you believe the data, where they are not accurate figures but guesstimates often being revised downwards 3 months after.

To increase production on shale with reduced rigs is an impossibility given decline rates which have now risen to approx. 70% on shale.

Even the big players have still to breakeven after decades and throwing billions of dollars down the drain to make not one cent profit on shale.

That's why the bankruptcy list is so massive with billions upon billions of investors money gone. A worse scam than Enron.

With the rig count falling week after week, and the legacy declines the figures on shale production are false. Don't take my word for it, its the laws of physics.

With a decline rate of 70pc in first year. Just calculate without even composite calculation:

1000rigs start November 2018, IPP 1000bbl per day each total 1,000,000bbls a day

Within 6 months those wells are producing 50pc less, 500,000bbls per day.

So you have to drill another 500 wells just to maintain existing production.

At November 2019 its even worse, because the original 1000 wells are producing around 300bbls per day = 300,000bbls and the 500 additional wells that produced 1,000 are now down to 500bbls per day...250,000 so a grand total of 550,00bbls a day, so another 450 wells have to be drilled to make up the difference and so ad infinitum.

On top of that they've found well production is slipping on a per well basis, as increased laterals have been found not only to affect the well itself but surrounding wells, and it is crazy to suggest that there are more sweet spots left, so the prospect is ever decreasing oil output, so this crazy suggestion of increased production should be seen for the scam it really is.

There is history of the EIA and the IAE lying about both resources and production levels and the same with the DOE.

This year alone in the US the rig count is down by 202 rigs.

Remember the Marcellus. Eventually it was downgraded by 800% (but only after it had served its purpose).



Just for September
Petroshare $14,507,269
Alta Mesa Resources $346,000,000
Columbus Oil & Gas $1,558,932
Sheridan Holdings $1,105,000,000
Ponderosa $680,000
TNR Holdings $6,056,102
Rovig Minerals $2,200,00

Then we have Houston Oil & Gas, leaving 1,300 wells needing to be cleaned up.

The only burgeoning business in the shale patch is Bankruptcy attorneys.

Even some of the Chief Execs. now are admitting the problems.
“You’re going to see a significant fallback in Permian growth,” Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources Co., told analysts in an August call. “You’ll probably move toward no growth for most people.”

A more existential issue is also at play. Frackers in the Permian, the largest U.S. shale patch, are packing oil wells closer together because they’re running out of space. That creates a loss of well pressure, a phenomenon known as the parent-child effect. It could lead to a loss of 15% to 20% of recoverable crude, according to Houston-based investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and an overall production decline of 1 million barrels per day, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett said in a note.

In July, Concho Resources Inc. revealed disastrous results of a Permian spacing test. The stock dropped 22% in one day. That was followed by indications from Apache Corp. and Whiting Petroleum Corp. that they were also experiencing delays that hurt production.

Los Angeles Times

[bigwavedave] 14/11/2019 16:47

Does this explain the slight softening in the sp?

13 November 2019, 14:10Source - SMW
RBC Capital Markets today downgrades its investment rating on Amerisur Resources PLC (LON:AMER) to underperform (from sector performer). Target 17p.

[xxnjr] 14/11/2019 16:17

Shale still powering ahead.

L48 now at 12.8m bopd

Thats an increase of about 500,000 bopd since I last mentioned the subject here.
Impressive. US drillers continue to do more with less rigs.