Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[fadilz] 21/7/2019 09:45

xxnjr, I see your point, any unspent money from OXY farm-in is due AMER. So closer to 186. Good point

[fadilz] 21/7/2019 09:41

xxnjr: it's still $93m to AMER (50%). N95, same argument of Put-8, AMER have and can sell only 50%

Take out Platanillo, and CPO-5, and you have a safe 14p per share. See my previous post. Add in drill on on Put-9, and Indico-2, and you could significantly increase value of both Putamayo and CPO-5.

If the deal is finalised before these drills, I hope they make the valuation contingent on their outcome.

[xxnjr] 21/7/2019 09:41

PUT 8 was a strait sale of 50% for $19.1m, without a deferred cash infusion, whereas the OXY farm-in blocks now come with $93.5m of pre-funding, none of which has been received, as afaics seismic programs have not started yet.

"The ANH has granted approval of the farm-out agreement with Occidental announced 23 November 2018. The deal relates to four exploration blocks: Putumayo-9, Terecay, Tacacho and Mecaya in the Putumayo region, southern Colombia. As previously stated, Occidental acquires a 50% interest in each block and in consideration will fund a $93m exploration and appraisal programme between 2019-21. Funding includes 85% of the 1068km 2D seismic equivalent and 100% of the planned four well drilling programme."

PUT 8 transaction details here

[n95] 21/7/2019 09:31

Oxy deal at 2X, Put8 at 2X as well equals 38m, not 19m. What have I missed?

[xxnjr] 21/7/2019 09:03

Mentioned in The Times (Sat)

....."Amerisur Resources was a stand-out gainer among the tiddlers on Aim, the junior market, amid excitement that the Colombia-focused oil and gas explorer and producer is on the brink of a takeover. The company said that it was putting itself up for sale after receiving approaches from suitors interested in buying either all or parts of its business. Its shares rose 4½p, or 36.5 per cent, to 16½p, valuing Amerisur at £201 million.

Putumayo-9, Terecay, Tacacho and Mecaya valued at $187m as per the farm in agreement with OXY. (don't forget it's 2X of farm-in price, not 1X) + PUT 8 $19.1m (Vetra sale of 50%) = $206m, or about £165m.

Leaving only £36m of current Market Cap to account for the rest of company.
SP well under-pinned at current level!

[sabre6] 21/7/2019 08:21

What did the Sunday Times say about Ameriser?

[thomstar] 21/7/2019 00:30

Got a love a bit of foxy hen house action bring on the 20p+

[neo26] 20/7/2019 22:11

Cudmore

Rather interesting Giles Clarke states that he knows the large indian investors in ONGC and speaks the language.



I can bet CPO5 offer has come in from ONGC.

[leas1] 20/7/2019 21:52

Was looking over GTE last week when their share price hit the 12 month low. Also noted that they closed down 4.5% on Friday. The CEO bought a bucket load of shares last Feb!!!
Worth a rumour …..

[fsawatcher] 20/7/2019 21:21

i fink it safe to say that it gonna get sold for more than 16.5p innit

market usuallies get price to around 30% to 40% of takeout price then hold it theres for next step up on next news

but this very difo coz yous got more than one fox in the coup

and theys both wanna own that o b a

jw is readies to retire

see it in his face

this deal alreadie done jus gotta give oxy a head up on price so gte dont get in cheap

this gonna explode to 20's on monday coz peeps not reed news until weekend

the fox is in hen houzz

25p i fink nows from oxy first and ongc give bout 15p to 20p after indoc appraysals done end of year

gte not get look in coz oxy worry bout them

[lucyp00p] 20/7/2019 19:04

I'm inclined to disagree. GC and JW don't want to wait another decade to realise the value of their investment. They are getting on and I'm sure they could negotiate any partial disposal privately amongst suitors as they have in the past.

[retailronnie] 20/7/2019 19:04

Can the board defend a hostile bid with their track record is the question in my mind.

If a bidder were to offer 18p to start (a premium of 50% ish over the last 3 months blah blah) and then up it over several offers to a final of say 25p i think there are many that would take it (people say they wouldn't on these boards but eventually do).

[cudmore] 20/7/2019 19:02

Roll on next week. Bagger coming 👍 hxxps://total-market-solutions.com/2018/07/13/amerisur-resources/

[cudmore] 20/7/2019 19:01

hxxps://total-market-solutions.com/2018/07/13/amerisur-resources/

[acv74] 20/7/2019 18:45

These next few weeks is what we pay GC for. Whatever people think of him he is a deal maker and has been here before.The recent deals such as with Oxy have been excellent.We should also remember that we acquired most of our portfolio for basically nothing during the down period for oil....again very canny business from GC and JW.I'm hoping this deal is GC's final masterpiece.I honestly don't have a clue whether we're going to get 25p or £1 per share. It wouldn't surprise me if it was more than we expect though.

[cudmore] 20/7/2019 18:07

35p is 12m target price by Stifel Analysts prior to news of Strategic Review / Non-Firm offer.

Post offer Stifel have updated to 37p

Roll on next week!

[davwal] 20/7/2019 17:44

The BoD are fully aware the company is wide open to a hostile bid with its share price in the toilet. They also must know they ain’t on many Christmas card lists, so this action could well be a pragmatic acceptance of running out of road. Basically a preemptive strike to broker a better deal than one forced on them, albeit at a price less than they once would have targeted.

Edit: and in terms of running out of road, bearing in mind the odd newspaper article just before the AGM alleging Michinoko weren’t going to support Clarke maybe there is pressure to sell originating from that quarter...

[adam] 20/7/2019 17:43

I think it’s too soon to sell the company, but what do I know. Also, in a few years unconventional oil is going to roll over and oil will be $100+ permanently

[sji] 20/7/2019 17:36

I think that whatever price we get for AMER, it will be less than what it's actually worth. We have been priced at a discount by the market for a very long time. Bidders know this and even our BOD knows this. So even if our assets were actually worth 50p, I don't think that any bidder would pay that much given that only yesterday morning we were trading at just 12p!

Besides the valuable blocks/fields that we currently hold (CPO-5, Putumayo & Platanillo), we have the OBA which I think that alone is worth almost the current share price.

The OBA's current agreed minimum output is 9,000 bopd. We know that there is circa $7 savings on transport costs per oil barrel when using the OBA. So, if used to the full for 1 year, the savings add up to 9,000 x $7 x 365 = circa $23m. But we also know that the OBA was upgraded over time to handle between 50-70,000 bopd (source: AGM Presentation May 2019). So technically, with some investment, the OBA can generate savings of between circa $128-$179m per annum. But let us be conservative and assume that a potential bidder will increase the OBA's current capacity of 9,000 to just 45,000. That would still generate savings of circa $115m per annum!

If the bidder had to build his own OBA rather than buy AMER's, it will likely take him around 3 years to complete until it gets all permits and build it up. During such time, if bidder had to buy AMER's OBA, he can save between $69m (at 9,000 bopd capacity) and $345m (at 45,000 bopd capacity).

So, if someone like OXY, can utilize the OBA to the full, paying $250m (or AMER's current market capitalisation @ 16.5p) for just the OBA would be recoverable in less than 2 years! Businesswise that would be an excellent decision.

AMER would be left with all producing fields which get then be sold to the highest bidder for a pricey sum.

My opinion is that AMER's BOD are shrewd deal-makers rather than operations managers. So, I just hope that they will at least get 30-35p for our company. This would not be enough for what we own but failing any bids, I cannot imagine such share price in the near future (1-2 years).

Obviously, this is all in my opinion and I hope that I am proved wrong and we get a much higher, deserved price for our shares!

[fatgreek] 20/7/2019 17:33

Here we go re Giles sales of businesses....Clarke began his career as an investment banker with Credit Suisse First Boston. In 1981 he bought from receivership the assets of what was to become Majestic Wine,[4] where, as chairman, he built it into a UK national chain. From August 1987 to May 1988, Clarke was chairman of Majestic Wine Corporation Inc, a United States company which owned a chain of 104 stores trading as Liquor Barn in California and Arizona.[5] Following disposal of the US based businesses, he sold the UK plc business of Majestic Wines for £15 million in 1989.In 1990, Clarke founded Pet City, where, as CEO, he built it into a chain of 94 stores (also dressing up at Xmas in the Swindon Store). After making the business public in 1995, he sold the business for £150 million in 1996 to US based PetsMart.[6] In 1998, Clarke founded Safestore, building it into the UK's third largest self storage company, selling it to Bridgepoint Capital for £44million in August 2003.[7] In 1999 Mr Clarke became CEO of Stepstone,[8] an online career portal. Since he came on board, the company has raised NKr1.8bn ($197m) from the IPO in 2000 and grew from four countries and 200 employees to a staff of 1,385 in 18 countries.

[tommygriff] 20/7/2019 17:31

When the market cap was at £150m I bet it crossed the BOD's mind to take it private at £250m, raise some finance and then flog to occidental in 5-6 years for £800mThat's what basically what Tribeca did with Petrolina