Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[oilandgas1] 07/10/2016 09:59

hxxps://simplywall.st/news/2016/09/16/investors-are-undervaluing-amerisur-resources-plc-aimamer-by-34-here-is-my-intrinsic-value-calculation

Reposting

[eddie_yates] 07/10/2016 09:54

5000 bopd/ 365 = 1,825,000 barrels/ year

1,825,000 barrels x $35 (Current approx. WTI price - Opex & Transport/bbl $15) = $63,875,000/ year

10,000bopd = $127,750,000/ year
15,000bopd = $191,625,000/ year
20,000bopd = $255,500,000/ year

[lucyp00p] 07/10/2016 09:27

As soon as integrity is proven and capacity at the receiving end is available there will be tankers queuing at the gates. Ask yourself who would continue to truck oil at $23 pbl if we can ship it for $17 and turn a handy margin. Aside from the contractual obligations to the truckers who would delay such a decision. Also, the reserves valuation is massively understated due to production restraint. Once the taps are fully open this baby will fly. It should be imminent

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 09:12

a very concise presentation

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 09:02

"If the company were to buy in other oil co's oil to transport at a $5/ barrel profit then for every 10,000bopd equates to $18,250,000/ year in free money !!!"

This is what I was alluding to, this is where the value is to be made. But that is not happening overnight and will take time to get other parties on board.

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 08:59

Eddie,

Thankyou for that info.

This is exactly what I was looking for.

FoiledAgain, that was not difficult fi you knew the answer or maybe you just did not really know

[eddie_yates] 07/10/2016 08:57

jailbird

5000 bopd/ 365 = 1,825,000 barrels/ year
1,825,000 x $11 (saving/ barrel) = $20,075,000/ year in savings alone

Pipeline capacity is between 50,000bopd and 70,000bopd.

If the company were to buy in other oil co's oil to transport at a $5/ barrel profit then for every 10,000bopd equates to $18,250,000/ year in free money !!!

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 08:53

Do you really think you test the pipelines integrity in the first instance by pumping capacity loads?

I am sure it is a complex process.
However some stringent load testing has to be completed before going live.

I sense sarcasim in your last comment.

I ask a genuine question and ppl get defensive.

[foiledagain] 07/10/2016 08:45

Happy to do that.

Message me, and if you have a pipeline to commission or stress test, we will be happy to quote for it.

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 08:42

Sinceyou have commissioned one, can you explain?

I am genuinely interested

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 08:37

My point I making, even at pumping 5000bopd is a small figure...... ppl are asking is it priced in?

Do we know the capacity this pipe can deal with...what is its load capacity limit?
Do we know this. This has to tested otherwise they will not know how much can be put through it

[foiledagain] 07/10/2016 08:30

Seriously jailbird?

Have you ever commissioned a pipeline? I have.

Do you really think you test the pipelines integrity in the first instance by pumping capacity loads?

Bonkers

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 08:24

Even if WTI reaches $60( but not in my opinion)..AMER will not rise.

Produces will benefit. The market is still not convinced when OBA will come online.
1500 BOPD a day is miniscule to start with. Triple that is miniscule....
Is it priced in?...I do not know as someone needs to the the maths and then compare sector average...the market cap valuation is start.

How much oil can OBA pump?. Is this where this value to be made ?

[francis55] 06/10/2016 16:19

Nice feed big wave dave . .

[bigwavedave] 06/10/2016 16:12

While we are (still) waiting...

[bigwavedave] 06/10/2016 16:01

Looks like a bot war.

[francis55] 06/10/2016 15:59

Institutional buy via electronic algorithm so expect it to be shorted to hell and back..

[valentine] 06/10/2016 15:22

Rex's replacement is called Terry, and from Redditch nr Birmingham. On good authority. He invented coiled spring years ago.

[seball] 06/10/2016 15:03

Big buys now coming in. This is like a coiled spring...

[valentine] 06/10/2016 14:52

So many buys @ 25p and going nowhere. Some sort of sophisticated investor placing. I'm saying nuttin. I just think we're being p'eed on from a height.

[meneither2] 06/10/2016 14:32

It's not irrelevant that the share price has steadied around the placing price imv. It's unlikely that the institutions coughing up at 25p were not expecting the share price to improve once the pipeline opened and flow rates were cranked up. Especially now with firmer oil prices too.

[foiledagain] 06/10/2016 14:26

jotoha2: Don't know what you are looking at to suggest its looking like the pipeline is in the price? Wishful thinking perhaps?

It was above the current share price previously pending pipeline, so unless you think the pipeline is worth a drop in the share price it makes suggestions of it being in the price seem strange.

I suspect games are being played with the share price allowing some to return to Amer before its announced, which seems the usual practise on AIM

Still wonder about Michinoko who do not need to comply with holding announcements as there are few penalties the regulators can levy on anonymous offshore holders.

Michinoko is down as having finished in December 2015, with the company being stated as IN TRANSITION, and being struck off by the end of this month. So where are the shares going?

Could it be the share price weakness was shares being sold by Michinoko as there looked to be a seller, only to be bought back cheaper by the beneficial owners of Michinoko in a new anonymous offshore vehicle after Michinokos details were amongst the offshore company leaks? One thing is sure we should be told what is happening with regards this large shareholding.

[bigwavedave] 06/10/2016 13:50

WTI now over the $50 mark. Amer unmoved.

[jotoha2] 06/10/2016 13:39

Looking very much that pipeline is already in the price , some possible upturn once they have some beneficial figures to shout about.

[valentine] 06/10/2016 12:55

I have just been discussing the positives of Amer with a.potential investor and I heard myself saying 'They've been level around 25p for a while '. Then the dark shadow of a P overcast me. No way surely?