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[valentine] 06/10/2016 12:15

If bas keeps digging maybe he can exit in Ecuador and ask the question directly? Might take a while to get an answer tho!

[bigwavedave] 06/10/2016 12:11

It is now three weeks since Piles Clarke said the pipeline would be operational "within days." I wonder whether that timescale can be defined as "within a month" or will it slip into the bottomless void of the "imminently imminent"?

Malcy said: "It could be today" but that was so long ago I cannot remember when he said it.

Will it be before Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his winter hideaway to check the weather?


Tony: me neither, unfortunately.

[quidnunc] 06/10/2016 10:17

Hi Tony, cant do next week, sorry.
Q.

[foiledagain] 06/10/2016 09:50

egg. So what have these latest comments to do with your queries about Ecuador having issues when they have already agreed publicly to the pipeline and its now with their hydrocarbon department to ratify it after it completed testing?

The joint agreement was given very high status in both countries and even reached world media, so it would not exactly be easy for Ecuador to do what you have suggested.

[eggbaconandbubble] 06/10/2016 09:37

Not stirring it Foil. I was under impression last month or so that bad weather was given as reason for delay but now we are told the pipe under the river has been in place and ready to rock and roll for sometime. Then the impression for delay was tied in with the FARC episode. What next?
It does, I think all come down to AMER's appalling PR.

[foiledagain] 06/10/2016 09:23

Egg. Yes my thoughts are you are stirring it

Ecuador pipeline since its construction was underused and oil production is less now than it was in 2014 and Colombia has been using infrastructure since 2013.

Ecuador receives far less than WTI, so its oil has been produced at a loss per barrel, so getting $ per barrel to transport it, is welcome revenue.

$1.4billion was spent on the pipeline envisaging much higher production levels, but they didnt happen

[valentine] 06/10/2016 09:02

Could be worse. We could be PPC. Down on a casing loss in Argentina. Ironveld up. At least GC will be smailing.New Ollie/Archie news ao we are well what you think?

[eggbaconandbubble] 06/10/2016 09:02

I did promise myself not to buy back in here till the OBA was up and running. Of course greed made me buy some beforehand. Now I worry that the Ecuadorians have issues and are having second thoughts.
It has been suggested that the system (pipeline/refinery capacity) in Ecuador will have issues with the extra load.
It might be possible their own oil companies are putting pressure on the issue.
Thoughts anyone?

[oilandgas1] 05/10/2016 19:27

Seems like this is old news From sep16 😜

[lucyp00p] 05/10/2016 19:18

OPEC Deal Fails to Lift Oil ForecastsSource: Dow Jones NewsAnalysts are lowering their oil price forecasts despite OPEC's promise to cut crude production, underscoring widespread skepticism about the cartel and its agreement.After pumping full tilt for the past two years, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to reduce production by up to 700,000 barrels a day later this year, its first major agreement since the oil bear market began in 2014.But many analysts are skeptical that OPEC will follow through on a plan set to be completed in Vienna in November, or that the proposed cut will make a big enough dent into the global crude glut.A survey of 13 investment banks by The Wall Street Journal predicts that Brent crude, the international oil-price gauge, will average at $56 a barrel next year, down by more than a dollar from last month's survey. The banks expect West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil gauge, to average $54 a barrel next year, also down a dollar from the previous survey.The banks in the survey see oil prices staying below $50 a barrel until the end of this year and below $60 a barrel through 2017. Last summer, many of the same banks were predicting oil prices would rise to more than $70 a barrel this year-a level that has now been deferred to 2018.After being announced last Wednesday, the OPEC deal boosted prices. Brent settled above $50 a barrel the first time since August this week. In morning trade Wednesday, Brent was trading up 1.73% at $51.75 a barrel, while WTI was up 1.87% at $49.6 a barrel.Many analysts, however, say that the deal is too little, too late."This is still only a plan, and no final agreement has been made," said Hamza Khan, head of commodity strategy at ING ìBank. "There may be a sea change come November, but until then, the global oil market remains in surplus."Strategists at Commerzbank said that the recent price gains for oil aren't sustainable. "After all, implementing the production cut will be extremely difficult," the bank wrote in a report.OPEC's deal foresees the cartel cutting its collective output to between 32.5 million barrels and 33 million barrels a day, down from August levels of 33.2 million barrels a day. But determining how much countries will cut is a politically fraught negotiation that has undone previous efforts to curb output and boost prices, most recently in Doha, Qatar, in April.There is a "material risk that Vienna is Doha 2.0," Morgan Stanley said in a report. "It's one thing to agree on a headline proposal for the group. It's another for individual countries to concede some ground and take the individual pain required."One of the main stumbling blocks to an agreement in the past has been Iran, which wants to boost its output after years of international sanctions ended earlier this year. Libya and Nigeria have also had lower output in recent months given ongoing conflicts in both countries.The return of barrels from those countries means bigger cuts will be needed from other OPEC producers, including from the biggest one, Saudi Arabia. That would require a move from Riyadh's two year policy of defending its market share by pumping at full tilt.U.S. shale oil drillers are another factor that could upend OPEC's desire to follow through on their agreement. Drilling has been rising since the beginning of the summer. Many oil producers believe drilling in some U.S. regions can be profitable even with oil prices in their current range of $40 to $50 a barrel. This could mean U.S. production, which is down from last year's highs, could rise again analysts say."Any serious increase in U.S. activity could make OPEC producers more nervous in Vienna," Morgan Stanley said.Global oil demand, meanwhile, has softened in key regions, including in India and China, the world's second biggest consumer."OPEC is arguably running out of time to act to stabilize markets and, more importantly, create some cushion to accommodate any negative demand shocks that might emerge in the coming quarters,"

[valentine] 05/10/2016 16:29

You been digging again bas? A lot under ground across the river too.

[bigbas] 05/10/2016 16:24

.............and remember, the pipeline is wholly underground in Colombia

[marnewton] 05/10/2016 14:58

Still waiting for a couple of closes above 25.00p - though 26.00p would be better, taking AMER back above the near coincident 50 & 200 day SMAs.

M

[nealm] 05/10/2016 14:32

Could anyone please answer some (hopefully) simple questions:

1. How come AMER didn't dip dramatically on the Colombian referendum result - surely the expected agreement would have significantly improved future security of the OBA pipeline?

2. Call me naive but how does the pipeline work (commercially at least):

a) How do we keep track of who owns the oil in the pipeline at any time?
b) How do we cater for different grades of oil from different sources?
c) Who rates the quality of the oil (or is transport priced per barrel irrespective of quality?)
d) How does the oil get from source to pipeline and then from pipeline to destination?
e) Surely there are still significant transport costs in getting the oil to/from the pipeline, so are we confident it will be commercially attractive to 3rd-party producers?

Clearly I have no experience of the oil business!

Thanks for any enlightenment ...

[tonyrelaxes] 05/10/2016 13:24

O/T
Ruby next week (other than Monday)?

[quidnunc] 05/10/2016 12:39

Yes Val, looking very managed in recent weeks.
Q.

[bigwavedave] 05/10/2016 12:31

Surely Amer's accounts will get a boost thanks to weak pound but earnings in dollars. Colombian peso very weak also.

[valentine] 05/10/2016 12:19

A nice 220k buy @24.93p otherwise buy a few thou and sell a few which looks like someone controlling share price level with 25p ceiling,

[fsawatcher] 05/10/2016 09:51

200k volumes

look like seller dried up

this ready to go to the sweet shop

[valentine] 05/10/2016 09:31

Does Arch meet Ollie Tomorrow? Have they been properly introduced?

[gray1107] 05/10/2016 09:28

They didn't record one yet, the API figures are somewhat equivalent to an estimate and is often wrong. Let's see what the EIA say.

[kipper62] 05/10/2016 09:04

These are the facts that count bigwavedave. The 'experts' were expecting a build up stock of 1.5 million barrels, when in fact they recorded a draw of 7.6 million barrels. Would love a pound for every wrong prediction by the 'experts'.This makes nonsense of comments by people like Malcy on predicted market price of oil. Commenting on the opinions of 'experts' is like posting on these BB's. Amusing? Entertaining? Stress-relieving? ... but often little to do with reality. Facts trump opinion every day.
Good fortune to all.