Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[clive7878] 13/9/2024 16:56

Good news for AA4 with the Boeing situation -
after a good recent run, although the share price has been solid,
this coming week could see more of a levelling out to follow,
but we will be half way in between another dividend payment. .

[mattjos] 13/9/2024 14:09

Boeing strike wont help with aircraft deliveries

[clive7878] 12/9/2024 19:16

With AA4 all is now looking very good going forward. A little while ago I topped up as well, as I believe that the current gravy train has further to go, and there are a lot of reasons to hang on, especially as the dividend rate is virtually guaranteed for the next 2 years at least.

[mattjos] 12/9/2024 18:53

ditto .. still a long way to run + a steady & very, very handsome divi return for those who can manage to do nothing other than just sit on their hands (& keep adding on any weakness)

[marvin tpa] 12/9/2024 16:48

Still trading at a discount over 50% to NAV, I'm not even close to considering slicing!

[panshanger1] 12/9/2024 15:14

Difficult to know what's a good target price here ( or should I top slice a few) Then there's the dividend ......

[mattjos] 12/9/2024 14:55

starting to move properly now we've cleared 50p

[panshanger1] 12/9/2024 13:24

Grinding higher New 52 week high

[clive7878] 06/9/2024 16:21

Any size to buy or sell is outside the normal price, that whyI can't understand the 500k at 50.5

As at 11 Sept - share price seems very strong.

[mattjos] 06/9/2024 15:05

looks like now having to pay over for any size

[mattjos] 06/9/2024 13:48

Price has kept ticking up despite daily volume steadily declining since the sharp 2.5p rise on 30th July.
Yesterday was highest daily volume since 12th March and we finally pushed over the 50p hurdle.
Personally, I'd expect 50p to now be the new support zone in a 50-75p trading box

[clive7878] 06/9/2024 10:26

Price up to 25k is 50.365 / 50.750,
for 50k price is 48.3976 / 53.8828

Question is - could the price now really break out ?
How did the 4 deals for 500k each trade for 50p ?
- not today but I believe it was yesterday,
which may have been the last buys at this price,
that was 2 million in total,
unless it was a matched deal
and that is why since the price has taken a hike.

There is another 500k gone through recently
this time at 50.5p, and the buying price has risen slightly again.
Is there something going on ?

[mattjos] 06/9/2024 09:49

Slow going but creeping over 50p now

[panshanger1] 05/9/2024 15:00

Decent volume too

[mattjos] 05/9/2024 14:55

50p always a tough nut to crack and usualy takes a few goes to get through it.
Hopefully we can now get moving a ittle quicker upwards to fill that earlier exhaustion gap at 62 - 62.5p from 2020

[andyandyoj] 05/9/2024 14:26

Yes upward 3 year breakout seems nice enough.

[clive7878] 05/9/2024 14:11

4 trades of 500,000 gone through of late at 50p.
price now 50.555 / 50.12
my gut feeling is that the price is set to go higher.
price for 100,000 is 47.5 / 57.1379,
looks like the 4 trades were sells,
but then why would the price go up afterwards.

[mattjos] 04/9/2024 20:46

been banging its head on 50p for a couple of weeks now & today was first time the Offer was raised just over that level.

[grahamg8] 02/9/2024 17:07

I've just revisited my assessment from March. I allowed $40m per A380 which is the price DNA2 are now getting. But we have 2 to 3 years left to run on the leases so the selling price should be a bit higher. The two B777's are also being upgraded by Emirates so they will want to keep them. I allowed $29m each and still 4 years to go on those leases. I am reminded that there are only 4 planes leased to Thai Airways so perhaps the fudge on the lease/debt is not all that significant. The residual balloon payment is pretty big so we are looking at a small difference between two large numbers (plane value vs balloon) in order to work out the final asset value due to shareholders. All in all I am reasonably encouraged. Happy to continue holding.

[clive7878] 02/9/2024 10:44

Still very blue screen today, although thin trading.
MM will have to raise the price if this does continue.

[mattjos] 28/8/2024 15:06

decent steady buying today

[cousinit] 27/8/2024 10:35

I guess the way I look at the valuation here is:

Current market cap c£150m

Equity in A350s c£70-75m
Cash on hand (not maintenance reserves) c£50m
Annual divs c£25m for maybe 2.5 years on average c£60m
Current leases delivering cash over divs for same period c£25m

Equity in the A380s/777s - who knows, although in a world where $ values are ticking up with the junior loans being in $ adds gearing to the upside. Part of the reason why the DNA2 value seemed a bit disappointing was that most of the increase from the deals last year was soaked up by £ strengthening. The return conditions for AA4 appear stronger than DNA2/3 for the A380s so that can potentially drive a differential in pricing for those aircraft (I seem to remember a few details were mentioned in one of the webinars and a Liberum note)

So my baseline is that at current levels there is quite a lot of downside protection, with a modest upside when ignoring the A380s/B777s. Those planes could help provide some icing on the cake, although only time will tell.

Clearly plenty of value elsewhere still, so obviously depends on what is on the radar screen in a relative world with opportunity cost!

[hpcg] 27/8/2024 06:52

I've sold out. The situation has improved since I bought in but I can bank a clear profit and never mind the dividends, which is not what I was expecting. I had thought I would be swapping income for a capital loss, but tax losses are still losses and a profit is always better.

The last DNA sales are now at the level of, or more, than the junior loans, and the interest rate trajectory has reversed. I had thought there might be more competition for the A380s by now though.

[rambutan2] 26/8/2024 21:40

Now that Emirates have committed to upgrading our A380s, which costs approx $15-$20m per plane, I can't think of a reason certainly why they would want to hand them back, but also offer us a re-lease. So, the only question is how high a price we can negotiate with Emirates. The B777X latest, along with all the other issues in the industry, should help our hand a little in pushing that price up. imho

[rambutan2] 26/8/2024 21:23

Worth noting that the B777X has hit further issues which likely will push out its first delivery well into 2026.