Alizyme Share Discussion Threads

[filbert3] 24/7/2009 21:25

Dr Biotech

I agree, but would go further.

Richard Palmer completely mis-represented the Renzapride phase 2 results in my view - he presented the results as highly promising and the trial a great success, even though when the results were published a long time later it was clear that the study was essentially a failure with little to difference to placebo. Only a madman would have proceeded to phase 3 on the basis of those results, which explains why no-one partnered it.

Additionally, the Colal-pred Phase 3 design was fatally flawed.

McCarthy clearly completely mis-represented the Cetilistat partnering status over time, and it appears the co mis-represented the nature of the deal with Prometheus - surely ALL costs were supposed to be down to Prometheus? - as a result, how come AZM now appear to not be keeping up with their end of the bargain to provide further funds?

In my view both Palmer and McCarthy should be at the sharp end of a law suit to at the very least recover the vastly excessive salary and bonuses they were paid over time, based on the misleading newsflow they released to the market.

[alphorn] 24/7/2009 21:15

Dr B - I was a supporter of this model (within bigpharma as a standalone unit) years back which is why I mentioned it. Roche were the first to set one up. I am not aware of any succeeding.

[alphorn] 24/7/2009 20:28

None of the compounds were novel.

The virtual development company model does not seem to work; this surprises me because I thought that these entities could outpace bigpharma.

[alphorn] 24/7/2009 20:22

Bad news for holders. It was years ago that I worked with MJN on his famous valuation spreadsheet.
The market dictated that the compounds were not all that they were held up to be. Perhaps the competitve projects caught up too quickly; perhaps the intellectual property protection was not adequate for bigpharma. We may never know.

[baronet 1] 24/7/2009 20:05

Please help me out here and would 'QAZ' be 'QWAZ' and what is his current username?


TIA


JB

[vow] 24/7/2009 19:50

Yes but there is a huge difference between private companies and public companies.

Administrators work for the creditors and shareholders are not creditors.

Have a look at the ARA situation. They had a marketed product bringing in money, several licensed products and one potential blockbuster cited as bigger than Ceti.

Still they went into administration over a year ago and shareholders are yet to receive even a letter.

The administrators will do the same with AZM and try to sell it as a whole, but whoever buys it will have zero obligation to existing shareholders.

Don't hold your breath on this one.

[alfieduncan] 24/7/2009 19:43

Sourced from two posts on `Yahoo!Answers`

An administrator is required to achieve a better result for the creditors if at all possible than by immediate winding up. This might be by running the company on for a while, restructuring it, selling parts off etc.

Only if this proves impossible might it be necessary to move to liquidation, which crudely means flogging off everything in sight to realise as much money as possible for distribution before finally winding the company up.

When the administrators come in, they take over the running of the company (for a fee) until such time as somebody can come in to take over the business or that the business is liquidated.When a company is liquidated the assets etc are sold off to pay towards it's debts.

Administrators will only ever come in if they can be assured that their fees will be covered.

[vow] 24/7/2009 18:56

"For those still holding of which I am not"

LOL! OK Qaz.

[capricious] 24/7/2009 17:57

I assume your saying Chronicler is Qaz and you dont like the guy?

Ceti et al still has some intrinsic value, I cannot see a problem with the logic explained above, but the institutions may want a quicker resolution.

Of course the only problem its July and not after August, the threat of litigation has forced their hands.

[silverbackalpha] 24/7/2009 17:41

CUT IT OUT QAZ, DONT Y

[alfieduncan] 24/7/2009 17:32

Thank you for your post Chronicler.

[manthy3] 24/7/2009 17:28

And here's QAZ, right on cue! Still talking to yourself and congratulating yourself! And not holding any shares, of couse! Well, of course you don't. You've already made a massive profit on these, haven't you?

[chronicler] 24/7/2009 17:20

For those still holding of which I am not one I requote CC's analysis of the current position re Alizyme, which is some of the best I have seen on these threads:




City Chappy - 14 Jul'09 - 09:08 - 190 of 209

On your last point, we know Alizyme could receive a further $32m in milestone payments plus double digit royalties on sales from Takeda if Cetilistat passes Phase 3 in Japan next year. If the Phase 3 results are successful and Alizyme are in Administration at that time, the Company would still exist so the money would go onto its balance sheet. The company would then become a going concern again and the Administrators would have to consider whether to re-list it (probably on AIM) with the current shareholdings preserved. Alternatively they could try to sell the Company or its drugs, either before or after the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results; and Takeda would have to pay the Cetilistat Japan milestone and sales royalties to whoever subsequently owned Alizymes rights to Cetilistat. Personally I do not think the latter approach would be in shareholders best interests.

My feeling is that if Alizyme goes into Administration after August 2009, it would be best to keep the Company on ice in Administration until Takeda report Phase 3 Cetilistat next year (the trial finishes in July 2010) which has a very good chance of being a positive trial result meaning Alizyme would receive substantial milestone and sales payments putting them on a sound financial footing. A company can be kept in Administration for 12 months, or longer with creditors or a Courts permission.

"Administration buys time for a Company, perhaps allowing it to get out of trouble and trading again or for the administrator to rescue the company as a going concern".

(Harris Lipman, Chartered Accountants and Insolvency Practitioners)

Alizyme is perhaps unusual in this respect, in that there is a very real chance of a substantial payment stream to them arising from Cetilistat in a relatively short time after potentially going into Admnistration, meaning the Company could be rescued as a going concern.

[chronicler] 24/7/2009 17:20

For those still holding of which I am not one I requote CC's analysis of the current position re Alizyme, which is some of the best I have seen on these threads:




City Chappy - 14 Jul'09 - 09:08 - 190 of 209

On your last point, we know Alizyme could receive a further $32m in milestone payments plus double digit royalties on sales from Takeda if Cetilistat passes Phase 3 in Japan next year. If the Phase 3 results are successful and Alizyme are in Administration at that time, the Company would still exist so the money would go onto its balance sheet. The company would then become a going concern again and the Administrators would have to consider whether to re-list it (probably on AIM) with the current shareholdings preserved. Alternatively they could try to sell the Company or its drugs, either before or after the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results; and Takeda would have to pay the Cetilistat Japan milestone and sales royalties to whoever subsequently owned Alizymes rights to Cetilistat. Personally I do not think the latter approach would be in shareholders best interests.

My feeling is that if Alizyme goes into Administration after August 2009, it would be best to keep the Company on ice in Administration until Takeda report Phase 3 Cetilistat next year (the trial finishes in July 2010) which has a very good chance of being a positive trial result meaning Alizyme would receive substantial milestone and sales payments putting them on a sound financial footing. A company can be kept in Administration for 12 months, or longer with creditors or a Courts permission.

"Administration buys time for a Company, perhaps allowing it to get out of trouble and trading again or for the administrator to rescue the company as a going concern".

(Harris Lipman, Chartered Accountants and Insolvency Practitioners)

Alizyme is perhaps unusual in this respect, in that there is a very real chance of a substantial payment stream to them arising from Cetilistat in a relatively short time after potentially going into Admnistration, meaning the Company could be rescued as a going concern.

[chronicler] 24/7/2009 17:18

For those still holding of which I am not one I requote CC's analysis of the current position re Alizyme, which is some of the best I have seen on these threads:




City Chappy - 14 Jul'09 - 09:08 - 190 of 209

On your last point, we know Alizyme could receive a further $32m in milestone payments plus double digit royalties on sales from Takeda if Cetilistat passes Phase 3 in Japan next year. If the Phase 3 results are successful and Alizyme are in Administration at that time, the Company would still exist so the money would go onto its balance sheet. The company would then become a going concern again and the Administrators would have to consider whether to re-list it (probably on AIM) with the current shareholdings preserved. Alternatively they could try to sell the Company or its drugs, either before or after the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results; and Takeda would have to pay the Cetilistat Japan milestone and sales royalties to whoever subsequently owned Alizymes rights to Cetilistat. Personally I do not think the latter approach would be in shareholders best interests.

My feeling is that if Alizyme goes into Administration after August 2009, it would be best to keep the Company on ice in Administration until Takeda report Phase 3 Cetilistat next year (the trial finishes in July 2010) which has a very good chance of being a positive trial result meaning Alizyme would receive substantial milestone and sales payments putting them on a sound financial footing. A company can be kept in Administration for 12 months, or longer with creditors or a Courts permission.

"Administration buys time for a Company, perhaps allowing it to get out of trouble and trading again or for the administrator to rescue the company as a going concern".

(Harris Lipman, Chartered Accountants and Insolvency Practitioners)

Alizyme is perhaps unusual in this respect, in that there is a very real chance of a substantial payment stream to them arising from Cetilistat in a relatively short time after potentially going into Admnistration, meaning the Company could be rescued as a going concern.

[capricious] 24/7/2009 17:11

Probably right, apparently my broker had been urgently trying to get hold of me earlier today, and like a Klutz didn't call back! That spike which saw 10p some months back looks pretty sweet now