Alizyme Share Discussion Threads

[vow] 07/7/2009 11:36

Like Fred the Shred mulling over his morals in Monte Carlo, the poor guys need their space to regroup.

[dunderheed] 07/7/2009 11:26

VOW - not sure about coi - and also this is what I am worried about - feel we will go private in the not too distant future - but hopefully am wrong!!

[dunderheed] 07/7/2009 11:24

Cheers for that clarification loaf - hence I do not want the Tim to get a bean of compensation for his errr 'resignation'!!

[ant15] 07/7/2009 11:23

VOW hes off sunning himself somewhere you may depend and not a care in the world....Oh that I had his money!!!

[vow] 07/7/2009 11:15

Surely a conflict of interest and he would be guilty of insider dealing if he invested money from Avlar to AZM.

Another VC company could be approached but they not as soft as Pis and would demand huge returns at the expense of existing holders.

Dangerous road as it could lead to privatistion.

Existing shareholders are the cheapest and safest option for AZM.

[dunderheed] 07/7/2009 11:10

Ah - this was probably my reference to running a 'fund' for biotech - it is of course venture capital company - but nearly right (!) - was just rummaging around my memory - getting old now!

[city chappy] 07/7/2009 11:01

Alizymes new boss Alan Goodman runs venture capital company Avlar Bioventures and likes the Alternative Investment Market.

[nitro7] 07/7/2009 10:20

ant15 well said all your posts but wasted on the other thread populated by derampers.

[dunderheed] 07/7/2009 10:10

CC - nice one - I get where you are coming from - of course Tim 'resigned'.
Of course we can take all the wording previously mentioned as binding in the circumstances - I suggest we wait and see what comes up in the agm b4 making any assumptions eh?
btw why are you talking about my manhood - I would have thought you were SC et al with that kind of thought - however I suspect you may be another multi alisa ilk - but really dont care!!

[ecohouse] 07/7/2009 09:58

SC it could be heading for 50p if they do a rest of the world deal for Cetilistat.

Is it too late to buy shares and qualify to go to the AGM?

[vow] 07/7/2009 09:54

ant15 = Tim?

[vow] 07/7/2009 09:49

"what else might be picked up cheaply by this virtual company to enhance the Pipeline."

They are just managing to afford tea bags for the AGM!

Yes I have done my sums which is why I sold. Say they raise £10m in a placing or by some other method (which dilutes PIs).

Next year if Takeda pass PIII they will get £2m-£6m, then they need to start commercialisation which will see AZM get the remaining £13m in Q3,4 or Q1 2011.

The reason I continued to hold was that this still wasn't a bad return for the £3-4m we still had in cash in December, but another £10m and a smaller slice of the pie for me? Doesn't add up imo.

The only saving grace, and it will be a gamble, is that they get milestones from Colal in the meantime, but after the latest RNS I just don't know what is going on there.

[dunderheed] 07/7/2009 09:38

CC - as mentioned by me on perhaps another thread - the change in wording was when the Tim was in charge - he has since been sacked - what would you infer from that?
Perhaps the change in wording was (amongst other things proclaimed by the Tim) - we're at the races - company transforming deals - guarantees of Ceti deals or you can shoot me - a little shall we say - mis spoke - or something like that!!

[ant15] 07/7/2009 09:36

VOW I have invested in this company as far back as 1999. I have invested in the sector for over 20 years I am not giving advice I happen to believe that the value of the pipeline is well in excess of the marketcap.

Do you know the costs of getting to a IND candidate let alone one to Phases I II and III.

Have you discounted potential revenues over time to achieve a proper valuation on which you can say with certainty that the products and the company are worth X or Y.

Have you researched the sector to see what else might be picked up cheaply by this virtual company to enhance the Pipeline.

I am disappointed with the rhetoric that some of the posters on here are offering as explanation as to why the company is in this position. I happen to believe that there are a number of very positive things as yet to yield rewards to long suffering shareholders.

AZM is not alone in its plight successive governments have long since abandonned BioTech which incidentally offers a far better route to drug than conventional "wisdoms" picking the sector up and running with it in part to gain popular support.

The Funding Gap from research to commercial products is measured in terms of billions in the UK alone!THe sector is starved of cash!!

Add just a smattering this to a Main List quote the ability and successes of some members of the board and the connections available to them for revenue generating collaborative deals through to drug which all small bios strive to achieve and you soon start to appreciate that down on its knees it might be but far from down and out.

For what its worth I believe we will see this back to 10p plus by the end of Q4 which will be a lot more sustainable than where we are currently. If the instituions buy into this again and (I personally believe they will) it will not be a matter of chance more that they will have been sold on a story going forward that is positive and that will present reasonable returns.Which is sound enough logic for me to continue to invest and incidentally offer my opinions to others on the board.

[city chappy] 07/7/2009 09:35

that was a fair comment nitro7 made about the surprise FDA suggestion of a seperate IND for Cetilistat diabetes adding to the time for doing a deal. AZM and partners would have to go back to the FDA for a further information and the FDA are slow.

Surely the key point is the recent possible diabetes IND and Takeda moving into Phase 3 Japan after successfully completing the first ever long term trial is good for Cetilistat - people seem to have overlooked the significance of Takeda's longterm Phase 2 trial - no one was ever going to do a deal until the longterm data was available.

Taken with AZM stating in May that Cetilistat rest of world deal "negotiations are progressing" - which is wording they have never used before - it does seem to indicate conclusion of a deal soon. As nitro said if negotions are progressing "there must be a deal to be done and I cannot see AZM letting it slip through their hands now".

[silent cartographer] 07/7/2009 09:30

The chart is looking dreadful. So glad I got out of this share a few weeks ago.

I may take a punt at 1p though... it shouldn't be long now...

[mach6] 07/7/2009 09:26

Nitro I notice you also post as dundergiveshead or whatever your other name is, it should be thickhead as you don`t seem to accept this company is toast.

[the_doctor] 07/7/2009 09:05

Nitro - just yesterday on the way home later, I read an article about orlistat being checked for liver damage.
The point being that the FDA is increasingly concerned about safety risks where the rewards are minimal.
Like I said, I dont know, but you should check how valid the SPA still is.
THAT wouldnt be material info until AZM actually were told it was no longer valid. It may be, it may not.

I'm unclear regarding the commercial potential in diabetes. ie. how much they'd need to demonstrate... how likely it would get used over other treatments. You may be right. I was under the impression that the level of benefit was small compared to other, better understood treatments.
My suggestion would be to see how big the hurdle is for approval.
Getting an IND or SPA is one thing. Actually meeting the targets is another.

At the end of the day, there hasnt been a ceti deal, so industry may agree with the concerns?

[nitro7] 07/7/2009 08:56

mad mike i see now it was the doctor (edit oppps prize pillock of the thread VOW who also posts as victorskulicz ).

Should be a deal for Cetilistat.

[vow] 06/7/2009 23:26

Nothing to do with me.

What I did ask the company was how much of the data from the Takeda trials could be used to speed up an FDA trials and for diabetes but I never got an adequate response.