Alizyme Share Discussion Threads

[optima2] 09/7/2009 10:35

vow - you would not seriously expect that the day it was announced Ardana were going into Administration it would also be announced what shareholders may or may not get back, as I suspect you very well know. It would all depend on the amount of liabilities Ardana had relative to the cash and value of their pipeline. It could take the Administrators months or even a year "to take such measures as they beleve appropriate including continuing to seek a buyer for the Company and its assets" in order to realise the best value for shareholders or any debtors.

chronicle - you made some good points. I could probably do a discounted current valuation for Cetilstat Japan on its own to produce a figure exceeding 20p per share.

[That is just for Cetilistat Takeda Japan. It would be more if we added in the extra Cetilistat licensing deals that could be done for other SE Asian territories if it passes in Japan, and ATL-104].

AZM have little liabilities and Cetilistat Japan and ATL-104 are in theory worth quite a lot. So I therefore agree shareholders should get something back if the company goes into Administration.

But it has not come to that yet.

[vow] 09/7/2009 10:08

Nothing to shareholders and they had marketed drugs and licenses.

[vow] 09/7/2009 10:03

1. Rubbish - They have stated they have to raise funds.

"Accordingly, the Company does not now expect to have sufficient
funding to last beyond the end of August 2009 and will be unable to continue as a going concern without the raising of additional funds"

2.Listing fees with are around £250k per year, plus legals, accountancy fees (including audits) every RNS costs £3000. Travel for meetings. AGM costs.

3. Shareholders would get nothing. What are you expecting a cheque? Doesn't work like that. They would lose their listing.

4. See above.

5. Fair enough.

6. The would have their shares suspended and there would not be a secondary market for the shares, so see point 3.

[chronicler] 09/7/2009 09:55

It seems:

1. If AZM cannot meet the funding obligations mentioned in the Trading Update they will forfeit milestones rather than incurr additional debt.

2. The only ongoing costs are therefore wages, office rental and a cheaper listing on AIM.

3. If AZM go into Administration and the assets are sold, Cetilistat and ATL-104 would probably be worth a lot more than the current market capitalisation (especially with Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan reporting next year and the consequential milestone and sales royalties that could arise thereafter).

4. Most of any Administration sale proceedes should be returnable to shareholders who could therefore get more for their shares than the current equivalent market price.

5. None of the largest five shareholders have reduced their holdings in AZM since the Annual Report or Trading Update.

6. Interestingly "An Administrators primary role is to rescue the company as a going concern". If AZM could be suspended by an Administrator so using no further cash, when Cetilistat Japan reports next year they could emerge as a going concern.

[vow] 09/7/2009 09:36

One of "85 Niche players"

Just to put it in context.

(Anyone fancy buying the report? Only £2500)

[silverbackalpha] 09/7/2009 09:13

No company, no product, no management, no money. I think under those conditions its a little premature to talk about the next obesity company dont you think?



Nitro7 - 9 Jul'09 - 08:53 - 150 of 150


Alizyme featured as one of the key and niche players in this latest World Anti-Obesity Drugs Market Report just out.

[nitro7] 09/7/2009 08:53

Alizyme featured as one of the key and niche players in this latest World Anti-Obesity Drugs Market Report just out.

[vow] 08/7/2009 13:47

Qaz is in cut and paste mode.

"south east asian and pacific teerritories"

They have the combined value of less than one US state!

AZM are made? It will have cost them £5m already this year, plus whatever funding required to get the £20m in milestones next year! Then they could receive $5-10m per annum in royalties on peak sales, not exactly made for life are they.

This plus Colal payments, which look increasingly less likely, would have justified the share price at the current level of ownership, but the new funding will make this income alone unattractive imo.

The US deal is the one, which should have been bringing in royalties of $20-25m per annum.

You are better off just banging out the £20 share price predictions like you used to QAZ. I believe CEN was going to be £25 according to you before it dissappeared for next to nothing.

[chronicler] 08/7/2009 13:44

If Takeda report successful Japanese Cetilistat Phase 3 results next year then Alizyme are made. Anything else is a bonus and ATL104 and ColalPred are still there for interest.

If the Cetilistat 3 Japan results are successful there should be another deal or deals for other south east asian and pacific teerritories as the Japanese results will be accepted elsewhere in the region without the need for further trials. So Alizyme would be doubly made.

[vow] 08/7/2009 13:44

Dunders,

Totally agree and said that a couple of months ago, that as a pure investment vehicle where the income from Takeda could be seen as return on capital employed it makes sense and was even attractive (pre the latest funding), but this alone does not justify it being a day to day biotech, no matter how "virtual".

A merger with a company like VER would make sense as they could provide funding for whatever the Colal costs are and AZM holders would receive equivilent shares in VER. No upside for current holders but better than administration.

[dunderheed] 08/7/2009 13:37

Actually I wouldn't say that at all - if no RoW comes off - they still have a future - if they can get some cash to Japan - the revenues for Japan mkt alone more than cover/justify current market cap or double that.

[vow] 08/7/2009 13:21

"The obesity rate in Korea is the second lowest among OECD countries
behind Japan, with 3.5% only of the adult population defined as obese in 2005.

The country with the highest obesity rate among adults is the United States, with a rate of 34.3% in 2006."

(OECD Healthcare, 2009)

Hence why the US (ROW) deal is the only one that matters to AZM's future.

[dunderheed] 08/7/2009 13:04

Or the gamblers!!
Of which I include myself I hasten to add - ie gambler - however not heard or seen enough to convince me to 'average down' yet!!

[johndee] 08/7/2009 13:00

The share price seems to agree that there is a future for this company.

[nitro7] 08/7/2009 12:43

city chappy it had crossed my mind that Takeda could extend their current Japanese rights to Cetilistat to cover SE Asia and the Western Pacific if their own Japanese Stage 3 trial concludes well next year. They might even be in discussions with Alizyme now and do a deal beforehand at a better price for themselves if they feel confident in Ceti.

On the other matter it is sad vow is still posting nonsense.

Although individual countries in SE Asia outsde Japan have their own regulatory bodies they generally just endorse aprovals for new drugs after advanced countries like Japan have previously approved them. As I said this relies heavily on Free Sales Certificates and Certificates of Pharmaceutical Product. This is a standard and well known practice.

In particular you can include Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines as countries that are among the most progressive and accept this route. So if a safe drug like Cetilistat gets approval in Japan it could almost cetainly go on to get registration in several other SE Asian countries. There are a few differences such as Indonesia not allowing drugs containing pork derived material but that is not an issue here.

[ant15] 08/7/2009 12:35

Now a few others think we should be buying into this...Just ticking up day after day!

[vow] 08/7/2009 11:17

Yes they could but it would require further testing, especially in China.

Sales for Xenical last year were $450m worldwide (down 13%), but not broken up into areas.

But if you used the usual breakdown of drug usage worldwide,

US 43%
EU 31%
Japan 9% (not relevant as Xenical not present in Japan)
Other - 17%

(VFA, 2008)

This leaves $85m for the rest of the globe, including China, Malaysia, India, Canada, Latin America etc.

So no there will not be individual rights for all these territories as it wouldn't be worth it. As you say though Takeda could elect to expand it's license to cover more of Asia, but it would be peanuts.

[city chappy] 08/7/2009 10:36

Thank you nitro7. It just shows the lengths posters like VOW will go to and is still going to in order to mislead.

I wonder also about the western Pacific territories?

It seems there is an obesity epidemic hitting SE Asia and western Pacific - about one third of people in SE Asia and W Pacific were overweight in 2005 with numbers predicted to be 53% of men and 44% of women by 2015 according to the WHO. So there is an obesity and type II diabetes issue there for a drug like Cetilistat to address. In China 23% of the population is overweight and diabetes has become a serious health problem.





I wonder if Takeda might extend their rights to Cetilistat for the rest of SE Asia and Western Pacific if the Japanese Phase 3 results are good next year. They would be logical partners.

[vow] 08/7/2009 09:37

Firstly NO ONE is going to license these small territories seprately as they do not even register on current Xenical's sales, so will be packaged up with the ROW.

Secondly you are talking about some of the poorest nations on earth and if some of them are some unlucky enough to become obese then they will wait for the generic drugs out soon.

Thirdly South Korea and Chinese territories WILL require their own trials because they have their own regulatory bodies and because they have an innate distrust of the Japanese. The Koreans may accept FDA approval.

I have asked the question and the Takeda results will be taken into account but fresh trials will be needed.

[nitro7] 08/7/2009 09:15

It is also true that trials conducted in Japan are regarded as the highest quality in south east Asia (Tier 1) and meet requirements for many local territories. Infact many south east asian territories have LOOSER regulations and less complicated regulatory regimes than Japan. There is also a move to harmonise requirements. Most south-east Asian countries will accept a Free Sales Certificate or Certificate of Pharmaceutical Product issued by a reference or advanced country for registration of new drugs.

If Cetilistat passes Phase 3 and registration in Japan next year that should enable registration in other south-east Asian countries without the need for further trials, making further deals for Cetilistat now (based on the Japanese Phase 2 data and progression into Phase 3) or in future highly likely.

[vow] 08/7/2009 09:11

I would ignore both comments and anyone interested speak to the company themselves as both posts could be correct if the question was weighted in the right way.

All I would say is is Tim was anywhere close to a deal he wouldn't have walked away.

[mikey34] 08/7/2009 09:07

Nitro 7,

You've noticed.Dishonest comments have been a feature on here for a long time.

[nitro7] 08/7/2009 08:50

I do not have any axe to grind here with others but it looks like certain negative posters are making dishonest comments.

I contacted Alan Goodman within the last 48 hours and he reaffirmed the accuracy of the statement in May regarding negotiations progressing for a deal for Cetilistat outside Japan.