Alizyme Share Discussion Threads

[silverbackalpha] 10/7/2009 12:28

I have emails between me and Tim, which are cleverly worded in that they are not lies but they are misleading in my opinion.

The true skill Timothy had in my view was to sell by implicaton. By this I mean he let people believe what they wanted to believe.

Even recently one guy here posted that "he got the impression that a deal was closer at hand than many think". It truly made me laugh because this has in hindsight come from a guy who is now out of a job, said such things for what 3 years, and the company is facing bankruptcy! Yet this guy still believed him! Hilarious.

One guy here actually recently thought the shares were rising indicating success. Well I would agree if the shares were 50p or £1, but they are 3p for heavens sake. Its true desparation IMO and they will be punished in my view.

[optima2] 10/7/2009 10:43

City Chappy good post.

The large shareholders you mentioned in Point 1 also include outgoing CEO Tim McCarthy and his wife Susan (1,1080,000 shares) and directors like Sir Brian Richards. I think they would lobby any Administrators to hold off liquidisation and wait for the Cetilistat Japan results after next July which is not long, particularly as it is not unusual for companies to spend more than 12 months in Administration anyway. After then milestone cash from takeda should allow re-listing of Alizyme on AIM with the same number of shares as now and reappointment of Alan Goodman at the helm if he wanted the job.

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City Chappy - 10 Jul'09 - 09:03 - 158 of 162

A few thoughts.

1) If Alizyme go into Administration without significant debts the large shareholders might suggest to the Administrators the Company remains suspended in Administration until the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results are out next year or a deal is concluded sooner for ATL-104 (my assumption is the former, which would preserve more value for the Company and shareholders). Going into administration does not necessarily imply immediate liquidisation of assets! "An Administrators primary role is to rescue a Company as a going concern" - how true.

If the Cetilistat results in 2010 are good the Company would receive a large milestone payment from Takeda and could then be requoted on AIM with the same number of shares as now, so preserving the holdings of all shareholders and giving big upside as the re-quoted price should be much higher. Further Cetilistat deals might then follow for other Asian and Pacific territories and the Company could progress ATL-104 through further trials.

2) Alternatively if current AGM resolutons 6 & 7 are approved, Alizyme might be able to place just enough shares to raise sufficient working capital (perhaps with any existing cash) to keep them quoted (probably on AIM and with minimal staff as now) until Cetilistat Japan reports next year or they can do a deal for ATL-104. Such a Placing would remove "going concern" fears and should result in a rise in the share price.

3) Even if the Company went into liquidisation, the assets of Cetilistat (e.g. Japan and maybe SE Asia) and ATL-104 appear to be worth more than the current market capitalisaton, so shareholders should get quite a lot back. (The share price is only now low because of "going concern" issues, not because the assets are are only worth the current share price).

[city chappy] 10/7/2009 09:24

dunderheed I will not disclose that kind of information.

You and all other shareholders might suggest to Alan Goodman and Nick Blech, in the strongest possible terms, the entire proceeds of this particular AGM (including the Q&A) are broadcast on the Internet as a webcast.

[dunderheed] 10/7/2009 09:14

Will you be going?
I am off out now so dont take no reply as ignorance!

[city chappy] 10/7/2009 09:09

No but all this could be discussed at the AGM.

[dunderheed] 10/7/2009 09:05

CC - all good ideas - have you contacted current management to see if they are viable or this is on their potential agenda?

[city chappy] 10/7/2009 09:03

A few thoughts.

1) If Alizyme go into Administration without significant debts the large shareholders might suggest to the Administrators the Company remains suspended in Administration until the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results are out next year or a deal is concluded sooner for ATL-104 (my assumption is the former, which would preserve more value for the Company and shareholders). Going into administration does not necessarily imply immediate liquidisation of assets! "An Administrators primary role is to rescue a Company as a going concern" - how true.

If the Cetilistat results in 2010 are good the Company would receive a large milestone payment from Takeda and could then be requoted on AIM with the same number of shares as now, so preserving the holdings of all shareholders and giving big upside as the re-quoted price should be much higher. Further Cetilistat deals might then follow for other Asian and Pacific territories and the Company could progress ATL-104 through further trials.

2) Alternatively if current AGM resolutons 6 & 7 are approved, Alizyme might be able to place just enough shares to raise sufficient working capital (perhaps with any existing cash) to keep them quoted (probably on AIM and with minimal staff as now) until Cetilistat Japan reports next year or they can do a deal for ATL-104. Such a Placing would remove "going concern" fears and should result in a rise in the share price.

3) Even if the Company went into liquidisation, the assets of Cetilistat (e.g. Japan and maybe SE Asia) and ATL-104 appear to be worth more than the current market capitalisaton, so shareholders should get quite a lot back. (The share price is only now low because of "going concern" issues, not because the assets are are only worth the current share price).

[dunderheed] 10/7/2009 08:45

VOW saw that post - know what you mean - can't remember which analyst we were discussing at the time - but the Tim clearly told me he was very angry with the presentation of said analyst and it was plainly wrong!
Well history tells a different story!
Was hoping if enough punters clubbed together with a load of 'circumstantial' evidence this may be anough for a civil type tort/negligence case against the company if they do choose to pay compensation to the Tim for his choice of leaving company?
Haven't had time to talk to a lawyer mate who 'specialises' in this kind of thing and probably nothing anyway.
Also haven't had time to ascertain if indeed he is being compensated for his choice of leaving company.

Anyway bit busy today so signing off now - BOL all!

EDIT okay M34 - cheers for the confirmation!

[mikey34] 10/7/2009 08:43

D,
No, I have never spoken to him.On 2 occasions I rang to speak to him but was told he was unavailable.But that is not my point....nor is shorting per se.My issue from my post concerned lack of integrity and deliberate deramping.

[vow] 10/7/2009 08:38

You will need more than phone calls to make a case. I have a long list of emails from RP and TM but none make any promises and can only be guilty of nothing more than being overly optimistic (or arrogance in RP's case).

The only one I was upset about, which I posted on iii, was the one in January that stated that a journo that stated AZM only had 6 months of money left was widely criticised by insiders and just plain wrong.

But he signed off that email with:

"All I can say is, don't believe everything you read!"

Aint that the truth.

[dunderheed] 10/7/2009 08:24

m34 - that's an interesting point you make re alleged phone calls with ceo's - I know I have spoken to (and others have as well) the Tim when he was around and if you relied on what he told me/them - then we certainly would not be in this position now (!) - I feel if we can't even rely on the basic message from ceo - we are going to get exposed to all sorts of posters on a free bb who will take advantage of such issues!!
For me the only crumb of comfort I will get from 'investing' in azm will be if the Tim gets no compensation package as a result of 'his' decision to leave.
If not think a lot of the punters who spoke to him should contact one another offline to discuss some method of redressing the situation - court case of some type?
Were you one of these punters by any chance?

[johndee] 10/7/2009 08:18

sell all u have in this and buy JLP or BRR...cant go wrong if u do that as in time u will get your losses back at least to a certain extent.

[johndee] 10/7/2009 08:17

Cant short a stock in the traditional way thats going bust..........too easy for the punter to make money so impossible.

[mikey34] 10/7/2009 08:11

Dunders,

You are very probably right.I'm talking about the principle of some basic integrity on this or any bb.The fact is that people's investment decisions are influenced by the aggregate of what they absorb from different sources and blatant mistruths such as alleged phone conversations with ceo's or what was said to analysts are therefore unacceptable.

[silverbackalpha] 10/7/2009 08:07

Mikey thats a rediculous allegation. Lots of people around here would have shorted this stock. Even QAZ I believe started a whole thread entitled "lets short this company out of business" and sure enough thats whats happening. The others of course chose to ignore it regardless of the fundamental position of Tim and the company in general and false promises of deals!!!

Had they taken an impartial view then they would have at least stayed away.

phuck: I dont believe this stock can be shorted any more as its too small.

[dunderheed] 10/7/2009 06:51

M34 wtgr I do not expect the size of silvers alleged shorts to impact the share price at all for azm?!

[mikey34] 09/7/2009 20:52

So now we finally start to see the real motivation behind Silverbackalpha's endlessly disingenuous posts,claiming or hinting that he was just trying to help people see the light,and claiming to have attended meetings as a shareholder."The next time I will stick to my shorts and add more shorts",
.

I have no problem with anybody shorting....its a perfectly legitimate position to take,but please don't masquerade as a holder or a concerned neutral observer.You have no ethical standards or integrity whatsoever and your comments should be treated accordingly.

[dunderheed] 09/7/2009 17:23

Phuckerty have to agree with half of what silvers saying - though had to lol at your post 291 - very amusing!!

[phuckerty] 09/7/2009 16:58

Hi Silver
If you are so sure it is going to 1p you can still short it and make a bundle.
Go on put your money where your mouth is it`s big enough.
Regards

[vow] 09/7/2009 14:35

"It would be totally impossible to buy this pipeline for the market cap"

Also if that were the case where are all the bids for the company at this low price? Takeda are due to pay AZM £19m next year, but why not offer £10m now?

Reason - They would rather wait to see if it goes under so that they can do a deal with the new owners (administrators). This is why AZM has to raise funds or they will be seen as too weak to negotiate with.

[vow] 09/7/2009 14:30

Qaz,

Read a little more 2008, so over a year in administration and shareholders still to receive even a letter from the administrators.

Your discounted value for Cetilistat is before the next round of fund raising at the end of this month? If not I would love for you to post your figures on how you get to 20p. Yearly sales 1-5.

[dunderheed] 09/7/2009 11:28

If that was the case why was a deal not done for RoW already it has been up for grabs for the last two years?
Either way if Jap comes in and there does not seem any compelling evidence to believe this will not happen at some stage in the future - the this company is still significantly under-valued - if it can reach that stage?

[ant15] 09/7/2009 11:08

Silverback.....SPOT ON and well found.I remain confident that AZM will whether this. They have a good pipeline...misunderstood by some on this thread.A US jurisdiction deal like Japan would of course be worth many more millions.It would be totally impossible to buy this pipeline for the market cap equivalent price which currently so undervalues the potential.

[troutfish] 09/7/2009 10:57

Biovitrum have licensed Kepivance and Stemgen from Amgen last year for $130m upfront ($110m cash).

Just shows the possible value of Alizymes equivalent drug ATL-104 and that there are outlicensees willing to aquire rights to such a drug.