Alizyme Share Discussion Threads

[vow] 04/7/2009 23:56

From The Times June 30, 2009

Change in climate fails to suit Alizyme

The drugs group had high hopes for its anti-obesity drug, but as diet pills have fallen from favour so have its shares

Alizyme, the pharmaceutical group whose share price grew fat on hopes for an anti-obesity drug, suffered a dramatic weight loss yesterday amid fears that it would go into liquidation if it could not raise new funds after its cash runs out at the end of August.

The shares, a bloated 192p three years ago, fell 2.42p to 2.88p after analysts at Charles Stanley, the broker, said: "The company's future hinged on securing licensing deals and a number of potential partners have ceased discussions. We view the likelihood of finding new partners as slim."

With diet pills having fallen from favour and health authorities encouraging lifestyle changes instead, Alizyme's Cetilistat obesity treatment has been unable to attract development partners outside Japan. This is bad news for Gartmore, which has a 12.3 per cent stake in shares and 9 per cent in derivatives.

[vow] 04/7/2009 23:56

From The Times June 30, 2009

Change in climate fails to suit Alizyme

The drugs group had high hopes for its anti-obesity drug, but as diet pills have fallen from favour so have its shares

Alizyme, the pharmaceutical group whose share price grew fat on hopes for an anti-obesity drug, suffered a dramatic weight loss yesterday amid fears that it would go into liquidation if it could not raise new funds after its cash runs out at the end of August.

The shares, a bloated 192p three years ago, fell 2.42p to 2.88p after analysts at Charles Stanley, the broker, said: "The company's future hinged on securing licensing deals and a number of potential partners have ceased discussions. We view the likelihood of finding new partners as slim."

With diet pills having fallen from favour and health authorities encouraging lifestyle changes instead, Alizyme's Cetilistat obesity treatment has been unable to attract development partners outside Japan. This is bad news for Gartmore, which has a 12.3 per cent stake in shares and 9 per cent in derivatives.

[city chappy] 04/7/2009 22:11

Here is a revised list of options and other information, with the most preferable first, probably:


1. Rest of world deal for Cetilistat* or ATL-104.
2. AZM renegotiate terms with ColalPred partners (e.g. to suspend obligatory payments to partners until Phase 3 Cetilistat reports in 2010).
3. Short-term and medium-term warrants.
4. AZM give ColalPred partners to whom they have funding obligations shares in AZM instead of cash.
5. Placing at a premium to the prevailing market offer price.
6. Placing at the prevailing market offer price.
7. Placing below the prevailing market offer price.
8. AZM sell their portion of the ColalPred rights to one or more of the Colal partners.
9. AZM give their portion of the ColalPred rights to one or more of the Colal partners to whom they have funding obligations.
10. Agreed take-over.

Or a combination of 1 to 9.

And it makes investment sense to keep the Company afloat at least until the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results next year.

*
It seems Alizyme have moved forward on a rest of word deal for Cetilistat because in the last three months they have changed the wording in news announcements from "ongoing" to "progressing":

Preliminary Results, 23 March 2009:

"We have a number of discussions ONGOING with potential commercial
partners for territories outside of Japan where the opportunity for additional
revenue streams for cetilistat is significantly greater".

Interim Management Statement, 19 May 2009:

"Negotiations are PROGRESSING with potential partners to license cetilistat for territories outside of Japan".

[city chappy] 04/7/2009 22:05

Here is a revised list of options and other information in the light of todays posts, with the most preferable first, probably:


1. Rest of world deal for Cetilistat* or ATL-104.
2. AZM renegotiate terms with ColalPred partners (e.g. to suspend obligatory payments to partners until Phase 3 Cetilistat reports in 2010).
3. Short-term and medium-term warrants.
4. AZM give ColalPred partners to whom they have funding obligations shares in AZM instead of cash.
5. Placing at a premium to the prevailing market offer price.
6. Placing at the prevailing market offer price.
7. Placing below the prevailing market offer price.
8. AZM sell their portion of the ColalPred rights to one or more of the Colal partners.
9. AZM give their portion of the ColalPred rights to one or more of the Colal partners to whom they have funding obligations.
10. Agreed take-over.


Or a combination of 1 to 9.

And it makes investment sense to keep the Company afloat at least until the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results next year.

*
It seems Alizyme have moved forward on a rest of word deal for Cetilistat because in the last three months they have changed the wording in news announcements from "ongoing" to "progressing":

Preliminary Results, 23 March 2009:

"We have a number of discussions ongoing with potential commercial
partners for territories outside of Japan where the opportunity for additional
revenue streams for cetilistat is significantly greater".

Interim Management Statement, 19 May 2009:

"Negotiations are progressing with potential partners to license cetilistat for territories outside of Japan".

[chronicler] 04/7/2009 21:46

Another two option is that AZM could offer the Colal partners equity in AZM instead of cash or sell/relinquish Colal to the Colal partners.

[city chappy] 04/7/2009 21:10

eco sorry I do not know the cutoff for AGM entitlement. The cahnge in wording you spotted on the Cetistat deal from "ongoing" to "progressing" does seem to infer a material change in the right direction so thank you for highlighting.

Are you really interested in Yell?

[ecohouse] 04/7/2009 19:46

CITY CHAPPY

About your Option 1 it looks from published information Alizyme have moved forward on a Cetilistat deal for territories outside Japan because in the last three months they have changed the wording in their progress reports from "ongoing" to "progressing" :-


Preliminary Results, 23 March 2009:-

"We have a number of discussions ongoing with potential commercial
partners for territories outside of Japan where the opportunity for additional
revenue streams for cetilistat is significantly greater".

Interim Management Statement, 19 May 2009:-

"Negotiations are progressing with potential partners to license cetilistat for territories outside of Japan"".


An objective interpretation would conclude a Cetilistat deal for territories outside of Japan is now closer and they have several partners in the running.

I am not a biotech expert but those who know me know I prefer this news type of information and analysis.

A deal for cetilistat is the most desirable choice and would add the biggest up-side from here.

What is the latest date I could buy shares and qualify to go to the AGM?

[silverbackalpha] 03/7/2009 21:51

This company is heading for suspension and bankruptcy. There is a 95% chance of this.

[silverbackalpha] 03/7/2009 21:50

City Chappy you're crazy mate.

The company will run out of cash by August.

Tim is AWOl, a consultant wokring for free is at the helm. There is no deal to take ceti to P3 RoW for $150-$200m.

Who the ferk would want to buy £2.5m shares in AZM???? No one!

Secondly, buying shares will not support this comany because they need cash and they are out of money.

Get real mate.

[city chappy] 03/7/2009 20:35

So in summary, there are a range of options, with most preferable first, probably:

1. Rest of world deal for Cetilistat or ATL-104.
2. Renegotiate terms with existing partners for COLAL-PRED.
3. Short-term and medium-term warrants.
4. Placing at a premium to the prevailing market offer price.
5. Placing at the prevailing market offer price.
6. Placing below the prevailing market offer price.
7. Agreed take-over.

Or a combination of 1 to 6.
I wouldnt argue too strongly if some put point 4 above point 3.

And it makes investment sense to keep the Company afloat at least until the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results next year.

[city chappy] 03/7/2009 20:30

So in summary, there are a range of options, with most preferable first, probably:

1. Rest of world deal for Cetilistat or ATL-104.
2. Renegotiate terms with existing partners for COLAL-PRED.
3. Short-term and medium-term warrants.
4. Placing at a premium to the prevailing market offer price.
5. Placing at the prevailing market offer price.
6. Placing below the prevailing market offer price.
7. Agreed take-over.

Or a combination of 1 to 6.
I wouldnt argue too strongly if some put point 4 above point 3.

And it makes investment sense to keep the Company afloat at least until the Phase 3 Cetilistat Japan results next year.

[city chappy] 03/7/2009 20:25

No one has mentioned this - there is a possibility of Alizyme issueing WARRANTS which would entitle the holders to buy shares at a higher price at some time in the future. This could be the near future (e.g. after 1st August) or further ahead or a combination. Warrants also help to reduce dilution.

That said I dont think the main issue is the precise priceing of a Placing or whether it might involve Warrants or some renegotiated terms with partners or a combination.

To me the main issue is the overwhelming logic of institutional investors and partners helping to keep the company afloat, by whatever means, until the Cetilistat Phase 3 results next year after which the company should be flush with milestone and sales revenues cash and investors sitting pretty..

[city chappy] 03/7/2009 20:22

VOWs rant against placings above the prevailing market offer price and in favour of buying in the open market is defective on at least three counts:


1. If an institution wants to buy £2.5m of shares in Alizyme in the open market - which is an amount larger than the normal market trading size and half the current market capitalisation of the company - the market makers would quickly raise the offer price by a large premium and the buyer would have to pay that premium (plus stamp duty).

2. Institutions willing to buy £2.5m worth of Alizyme shares under the current circumstances, would be doing so precisely to keep the company afloat until the Cetilistat Japan results next year. Thus they would want to buy via a Placing or other investment vehicle, to ensure the money goes to Alizyme; rather than buying on the open market, where the money would not go to Alizyme.

3. The share price should recover sharply after raising further cash with further upside when the Cetilistat Phase III results report next year, providing a return on capital investment by an institution, even if that investment were to be at a slight premium.



I would add - and no one has mentioned this - there is a possibility of Alizyme issueing WARRANTS which would entitle the holders to buy shares at a higher price at some time in the future. This could be the near future (e.g. after 1st August) or further ahead or a combination. Warrants also help to reduce dilution.

That said I dont think the main issue is the precise priceing of a Placing or whether it might involve Warrants or some renegotiated terms with partners or a combination.

To me the main issue is the overwhelming logic of institutional investors and partners helping to keep the company afloat until the Cetilistat Phase 3 results next year after which the company should be flush with milestone and sales revenues cash.

[phuckerty] 03/7/2009 19:13

Hi
Fairly large sell just before close.

[dunderheed] 03/7/2009 18:29

There have been instances of where placing is higher than prevailing share price - just cant remember them at the moment - however this is when the company is in good condition and placing over subscribed and relatively illiquid company as well.

[silverbackalpha] 03/7/2009 17:52

Investors got to understand this company is 95% going under.

Its got no cash and its on suspension alert here.

SUSPENSION ALERT, on one newletter I subscribe to.

Very very bad.

[silverbackalpha] 03/7/2009 17:51

That is a crazy suggestion.

No one will even consider buying shares in this dog at higher than the current price IMO.

This company is on its knees, it isnt as if they are the chooser, rather the beggar.

Truly phenomenal how some people are delluded here.

[vow] 03/7/2009 16:56

Please give an example of a placing at a higher price.

Who the hell will pay more than they can pay in the market, especially after they have admitted they may only have 2 months left.

[chronicler] 03/7/2009 14:40

Under the current circumstances there is more logic in suggesting a Placing at a HIGHER PRICE than the current level because the price only dropped to 3p on going concern issues - which would be immediately removed by additional cash - after which the shares should return to a level which more properly reflects the potential value arising from the likely good results from Cetilistat Japan when the Phase 3 results are out next year.

I would also endorse CC's comments that institutions who have already invested do not want to loose what they have already put in, especially with the Phase 3 Japan results for Cetilistat so close and the massive upside that could bring.


Note also:

Optima2 - 3 Jul'09 - 11:56 - 82 of 83


It will probably be a placing, which is the quickest and cheapest option.

The other possibilities include a deal for Cetilistat rest-of-world or ATL104, or some rearrangement of terms with existing partners.

Any of these should have a positive impact on the share price and there should be further big upside when Cetilistat Phase 3 reports next year and in the lead-up.


Troutfish - 3 Jul'09 - 14:17 - 83 of 83

optima i would add to your second paragraph a possibility is a takeover.

[silverbackalpha] 03/7/2009 14:32

Please keep this thread moderate, thanks.

A placing will most certainly be negative on the share price:

1. Dilution for existing.
2. It will have to be deeply discounted to be able to attract any funds at all.

I have concerns about whether enough money can be raised in the first place given how the share price has been driven down and the unlikely chance ceti will go to PIII anway let alone make it to market.

[troutfish] 03/7/2009 14:17

optima i would add to your second paragraph a possibility is a takeover.

[optima2] 03/7/2009 14:02

Which just about confirms u really do find the truth hard to take and whatever u say about anyone else that is how your life really is.

[silent cartographer] 03/7/2009 13:19

What's a looser ?

I think you meant 'loser' !

'Looser' would be used in the following way for example -


Everytime QAZ (or any one of his multiple aliases) goes out on a man-date, next day, his ring-piece is much LOOSER

See the difference QAZ ?