Alizyme Share Discussion Threads

[mad mike] 06/7/2009 20:48

Nitro7, it might have been better if you had checked who posted about FDA/cetilistat & also about cetilistat/diabetes.

A little hint: it wasn't me, nor did I even post on the subjects. Second hint: I think it might have been VOW [edit: Opps! it was the_doctor]

Oh! & BTW, the person (the_doctor) that posted that cetilistat/diabetes would have to be an extra (expensive) trial on top of cetilistat/diabetes, may be wrong. My report of the last AGM (posted here), states:-
"After the meeting Tim said that there won't be much of an increase in the $150M trial cost to get cetilistat Phase III approval for diabetes alone, as there would be considerable overlap in the 'data'."

[nitro7] 06/7/2009 20:22

mad mike do you have any proof the FDA have revised their requirements towards Cetilistat. no. If there was it would constitute material info which Aliz would have to have disclosed. end of.

You ask are the Ceti diabetes results any good? For one thing it was the FDA who liked the Ceti diabetes results enough to suggest it have a seperate IND for diabetes so that is a plus. Obviously we are only talking about use for mild diabetes where a small shift in blood sugar levels could make all the difference and help people avoid progressing into the more serious type or get them back into or nearer the normal range so it does not have to perform like insulin. other plus's are it would be safe and easy to take and could help mild diabetics lose weight which was what caused the mild diabetes in the first place something which other diabetes treatments do not do so an extra point to Ceti.

The suggestion of a diabets IND from the FDA came as a surprise to everyone including I guess AZM and possible partners. So it could have delayed finalisation of a deal as it could add much value and would require further consideration and negotiation.The suggestion of a seperate diabetes IND is a fact that cannot be ignored.It must have made a difference to discussions and subsequent negotiations and could account for some of the delay so far.In tandem with this the recent news releases seem to imply progess is being made on Ceti deal negotiations and i cannot see AZM letting a deal slip through their hands now if there is one to be done which it seems there is from the announcement in May.

ATL104 - maybe a deal here as well.

You made some interesting comments about financing.

Whats all this about AG running an investment fund? Could this be a source of extra capital if needed?

[vow] 06/7/2009 18:26

PS How dare you use such language on here Dunders.

M*G, filthy word that has no place on any board, be more considerate to other posters;-)

[vow] 06/7/2009 18:23

Hi,

Yes a placing of £450k and offer of £2m, but net of costs.

The other problem with an offering is that I can't see it being underwriten by anyone so not sure of the legalities of that in listing rules.

That, coupled with the small amounts possible and the fact that no amendment has been added to the resolutions leads me to think that anther form of fund raising will be used.

Loan Notes, Bonds, Warrants would all be far too expensive with crippling returns demanded for such high risk. Look at what the issue of bonds did to SKP. They could offer preference shares that sit above ordinary shares and that have certain rights under administration, but these would have to pay interest or some sort of garuanteed return as they would not be able to be sold on a secondary market.

I assume this is why they delayed the AGM to get something in place, but it is going to be a hard sell to anyone.

[dunderheed] 06/7/2009 18:19

Oh okay see the difference but did not realise they had to offer a convertible bond to share-holders at all - how about a group of pi's etc. or even another pharma - via egm?
I was only using this as an example of another possible way of raising capital?

[mad mike] 06/7/2009 18:11

Dunder, no I was not referring to a convertible bond. If a company wants to offer a convertible bond to all shareholders, my understanding is that requires a public offer, and a prospectus.

The company I was referring to, is (initially) only offering a Secure Loan Note i.e. you loan them money and they pay you interest.

Only after it has raised that money, will then call an EGM to ask shareholders to authorise the option of the future conversion of these bonds to convertible bonds. Shareholders would then have to be sent a prospectus before they could elect to change their Secure Loan Note, to a Secure Convertible Loan Note (the later, of course being able to be converted to shares at a later date, meaning the initial loan would need repaying).

So a prospectus would eventually have to be produced, but only after the money is raised.

[the_doctor] 06/7/2009 18:03

Nitro

SPAs - yes, good point, but things have changed and the FDA has getout clauses. Worth checking if you're invested
I was really just passing on info and an expert I spoke to thought it could be the case.

diabetes - are the results any good? I'm not sure

Each indication requires extra trials. My view was really that the obesity costs may not justify obesity investment

I remember folk running about ADVFN and writing articles about how AZM had so many un-partnered Phase III products and was a clear bid target.
They forgot to look at how attractive the products were and it is now clear why partners werent so keen!

[dunderheed] 06/7/2009 18:01

Also let's not forget doesn't AG run a couple of investment bio funds - ie private equity - I may be wrong on that but thought he did - clarification would be appreciated?
I would not be surprised to see this 'go proviate' sooner rather than later?

I think Ceti RoW is more and more looking like an M6G type of drug!!

[dunderheed] 06/7/2009 17:59

mm - I assume you are referring to what I would call a convertible bond or have I mis-understood?

[mad mike] 06/7/2009 17:54

VOW, a comment on of your post(below).

The company does not have, and will not have authority to do a total placing for 33% extra new shares, according to AGM resolutions. The maximum placing they can do is 10% extra new shares.

I (& I assume you) are using the term placing to refer to a fund raising where it is not offered equally to all shareholders.

To raise money by issuing 33% new shares, requires at least 23% of the shares to be offered as a public rights issue, where all shareholders, including ourselves, are offered shares equally, pro-rata to our holding.

The above is documented in the resolutions passed at last year's AGM, and in those for this year's AGM (which are identical regarding new shares):-
- 2008:
- 2009:

If a placing is done now, I guess the company couldn't get much more than 2.5p a share, which would bring in £0.55M (gross). If this is followed by a rights issue to all shareholders for a further 23% (making 33% total), then the pricing (& thus the sum raised) would be dependent upon any recover in the shareprice following the earlier placing. So it is difficult to work out what a rights issue would raise.

However, I do accept that a right issue is expensive to fund, given all the work that needs to go into the prospectus.

Incidentially, regardless of last year's & this year's AGM resolutions, the company could at any time, call an EGM (with just 14 days notice), and ask for authority to place as many new shares as they thought necessary e.g. without any 10% or 33% maximum. However, I would have thought, if this was on the cards, they would have done it via an appropriate resolutions at this year's AGM.

Actually, there are other ways for a company to raise money, including from shareholders, without it having to be classed as public, and involving the issue of new shares. For example, I know of one company currently raising funding from sharehoders via a Secure Loan Note i.e. not involving shares or a prospectus.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
VOW - 6 Jul'09 - 14:34 - 23894 of 23907

Mike,

Under these conditions they could raise £450k (net) without a discount and a placing of £2m (net) after.
..............
The money raised in the placing would be immediately used up organising the offer.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[dunderheed] 06/7/2009 17:38

The Timiny affect still kicks in and the blighters left now!!!

[silverbackalpha] 06/7/2009 16:53

LOL!

As the shares head to 0p!



Nitro7 - 6 Jul'09 - 16:51 - 23906 of 23906

Cetilistat now has the possible IND for standalone diabetes. there is plenty enough money in that market plus obesity to make it worthwhile.

[silverbackalpha] 06/7/2009 16:45

Going belly up by the looks of things...next stop SUSPENSION!

[vow] 06/7/2009 16:40

Ant,

I don't think you know enough about this company to advise people to "average" down.

The cost savings were done and all costs announced in the December Accounts and then they received £1.4m in February, totally nearly £3m (not USD). They have been virtual since conception, although I don't think they have outsourced their call centre to india yet.

They were only signed off as a going concern on the basis of income from existing deals, which is why they are where they are now and have just admitted they only have enough cash to last 2 months, so I don't know what you are talking about.

[ant15] 06/7/2009 15:55

No comment Jak1 but it could be a good time to average down now that a bounce seems almost imminent.

[ant15] 06/7/2009 15:20

VOW I understand the concept of dilution but from where I sit diluting my holding is far better than seeing the train run into the buffers.

The company will have had to have had enough cash to survive the next 12 months this is bog standard Working Capital Requirements....

While I appreciate that they have spent 3 million dollars ( well on the way to doing so ) to turn a company from active in every sense to virtual is costly as it involves losing staff and all that that entails. However Virtual is the way to go...For years Pharmas have out sourced clinical trials it represents far better value for money than having expensive scientists on the payroll. Singaporeans/Chinese and Indians can do the work at a fraction of the cost...BUT there is nothing better than profitable out licensing for these types of product pipelines which is actually where we are...Buying in technology and there is plenty about and relatively cheap for quality is another way of topping up the pipeline. I think the moves here are excellent and more power to them for at long last having bitten the bullet.

[vow] 06/7/2009 15:02

I would like to pick you up on a couple of points:

"What is significant is that they are not looking to split the shares" - ANY fundraising will diliute your shareholding or involve you putting in more money.

"Company can be assumed to have enough cash for 12 months after placing at 2p" - They had £3m pounds a couple of months ago and apparenly can't last another two, and this is AFTER the cost cutting. What makes you think £1.4m is enough??

I think you will find this is a carbon copy of every other resolution statement, resolutions are standard. The rest of the AGM is where the jucy bits are.

[joeblogg1000] 06/7/2009 15:02

Yet another Director looking after self interest at the expense of shareholders!!!

[silent cartographer] 06/7/2009 15:00

This could be heading for 1p !!

[dunderheed] 06/7/2009 14:59

Chronic - you forget the Tim was responsible for those word changes - he has been sacked since last week - infer from that what you will - but I do not think it means we are quite as progressed as he used to imply?!