Alizyme Share Discussion Threads

[ant15] 02/7/2009 14:11

Silverbackalpha...I wouldnt have thought they would consolidate the shares.Unless it was undertaken after a placing
UPSIDES
1. They do a placing at say 2p it cannot be less than the nominal value of the stock at present)and would see a virtual company with reserves and a high quality pipeline and potential.If its with their big investors then good news.

2.Costs have been slashed to rock bottom and you can assume that they will be taken even lower.

3. They do a share split to get a placing away for eg reducing the nominal value to maybe a 1p and placing at say 1.5p...again good news for the above reasons and because the shares would be priced to move up giving holders a bonus.

4. Maybe an open offer, though this is expensive and if they have support from institutional investors that would be a favoured route to save costs.



5.The price has already dropped to where there is solid support....The shares are tightly held and should now start to move up certainly if they resolve thcash issue.


DOWNSIDE

None for investors coming in now!!!

Hope this helps.

[dunderheed] 02/7/2009 13:28

We have no idea as to the obligations with regard to testing of CP - this could be ominous and likely to be material compared to other o/heads.

[silverbackalpha] 02/7/2009 13:16

Ok I am going to build a cashflow forecast statement to ascertain exactly as possible this comapny has got left.

We can assume I think the overhead cost is going to dramatically decline from here. I know it is difficult to say but I would envisage costs are going to go to the absolute minumum here.

There will need to be a funding here. It is quite likely there wil be shareholder dilution at this point and maybe even a share consolidation.

Any input most appreciated.

[optima2] 02/7/2009 11:18

vow

out of interest how old are you and what is your career to date?

[ant15] 02/7/2009 11:10

Dundas I take your points. However I do see this as a sound strategy for taking the company forward. As regard a self fulfilling prophecy if you can convince me that opiate of the masses driven by profit motive is not a sound ploy for investing I will concede that too.The company has a good pipeline lets not forget it...Biotech has taken a tremendous hit these last 12 months and is set to rebound.

[silent cartographer] 02/7/2009 11:07

Dundermoan,

Apparently your wife is so fat, that when she goes to a restaurant and they give her the menu, she just says 'Okay'

Is this true ??

[dunderheed] 02/7/2009 11:06

VOW I may be simple but you only listed 5 out of a possible quoted 10 - do you mind detailing the other 5 now as well?

Out of interest what is/was your occupation? I assume you are semi retired based upon some of your golfing comments - unless this was during a period of annual leave?
I queried your qualifications merely because of some of the awful grammatical errors you have made previously and it makes me cringe that 'universities' are giving out masters degrees when people obviously cannot even read or write English correctly. I would 'of' thought you realised this - am not disputing the fact you may have one - just questioning whether it was an OU one or something!!
Cheers.

[chronicler] 02/7/2009 11:05

dunders good points.

I have always said my main interest here is Cetilistat Japan which ends Phase 3 in July 2010 and should make the Company.

Looking at it objectively it is in everyones interests to fork out the relatively little cash needed to keep Alizyme going until the Cetilistat Phase 3 results are available from Takeda next year, which should be positive, and after which Alizyme should receive a very large milestone payment and subsequent sales royalties and the shares have big upside compared to todays price.

I therefore think some of the larger shareholders like Prudential and Gartmore will stump up enough cash to keep Alizyme ticking over through to H2 next year. Based on the above assumptions it is likely there might also be new investors interested in entering at the bottom.

[vow] 02/7/2009 10:58

1 good reason, a deal is being drafted, 9 bad administrators are being briefed, delisting papers being drafted, liquidation papers being drawn up, asset sale being organised to raise funds, current partners given time to come up with offers etc etc etc.

Qaz,

Coming from someone who once lied about having a Phd! Dunders is the only one who has ever mentioned my qualifications, seems obsessed with them, maybe simple

[dunderheed] 02/7/2009 10:55

The counter argument to that is that this is the gamblers stepping in now - making the same assumptions as yourself and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy with regard to share price - then opps a daisy - the lights are turned off and a few people are left with burnt fingers (excepting master traders like SC for example).

I am the optimist and believe that there will be some limited city backing for this venture in the medium term - however linked to getting rid of the Timiny as I think his presence has actually been detrimental to azm over the past couple of years - as opposed to beneficial.

In theory there should be a quite large milestone if 'ceti' is successful in Jap. In theory there is probably some sort of deal that can be done for 'Ceti' for RoW as well - likely to be significantly back ended but something that may provide value past medium term?

Just my opinion.

[ant15] 02/7/2009 10:47

Strange that with all the bad noises here the stock is creeping slowly back up these last two days.I think this is one to watch and very carefully.If it ticks up again I will be tempted to buy in. The stock is quite tightly held and if good news were to happen we might just see a Turn Around.AG has been in this sector longer than virtually any other BioTech Investor in the UK He has not only survived the sortof problems that have been discussed above he has frequently capitalised on them and made substantial profits over years.Conceptually virtual companies outsourcing their development has to be a big plus. How many scientists coming to market employment demand 5 fold pay increases on what they might reasonably expect to get in acedemia let alone industry generally...Having a laboratory full of them with expensive management is not the way forward...routine analysis etc can be undertaken and so cheaply in many parts of the globe. To reitterate I think this is definitely one to watch!!

[penis enlargement consultant] 02/7/2009 10:21

VOW - 23822

Why have you brought me into this arguement?

Do you think about me a lot?

[silverbackalpha] 02/7/2009 10:09

Any views of why the AGM is shifted back a week?

Or on Tim?

[chronicler] 02/7/2009 09:57

cheers mm. sounds reasonable.

mad mike - 2 Jul'09 - 09:25 - 23827 of 23830

I suspect the change in date is because they have yet to finalised the AGM resolutions, so have to delay sending AGM invitations to shareholders.

- Will there be any need to have a resolution re-electing our Timmy (LOL!)?
- Will some resolutions about non-Execs re-election be necessary, if they fall on their sword, for past serious failures?
- How many new shares will need to be authorised, and thus require an AGM resolution to get authorised?
- Will the AGM venue change?

I believe the resolutions had to be sent out today or tomorrow (to be within a 21 day window). If the resolutions wern't finalised, then the AGM had to be put back.

[dunderheed] 02/7/2009 09:28

VOW - as I say you were the one who was always posting about feeling good after speaking with the Tim over on iii (for years!!) and continually sticking up for him - to the point of others actually thinking you maybe one and the same - who is the plonker?

Really I have no concern as to what your trades were because like your filtered buddy SC - I am sure you never really lost on this as you probably bought and sold at extraordinary times and ended up okay in the end!
I was posting this in response to hearing about some PI's that have lost six figure amounts - probably (imho) as a result of relying on intimate chats with the Tim - this is very wrong indeed and I hope your pal has a clear conscience?!

I stand to be judged by others - but I think you'll find - go and check my posts - that I was the first to clearly state the Tim would not be here by agm - something you yourself disputed at one point!
'You for sticking to your guns' - you clearly claimed you would see this through to the end and had every confidence in azm producing as you had been led to believe in cosy chats with the Tim (or as your errr model reflected!) - and you are not big enough to admit that - come on be a man for once!?

Now I don't want to bore others with this but I think you are showing strange issues with coming here and posting now - so please really get over your losses and move on - and take your little bum buddy SC with you!!

I will not respond directly to your babyish responses anymore by the way - but you are not on filter - as opposed to SC who let's just say - gives pretty intellectually challenged responses!!

Btw though what are the 'nine' reasons for the agm postponement?

[the_doctor] 02/7/2009 09:27

'The shares, a bloated 192p three years ago, fell 2.42p to 2.88p after analysts at Charles Stanley, the broker, said: "'

It fell when AZM said milestones wouldnt come in, not due to anything CS said

'The company's future hinged on securing licensing deals and a number of potential partners have ceased discussions'

Where has this been said???
(probably true though!!)

[mad mike] 02/7/2009 09:25

I suspect the change in date is because they have yet to finalised the AGM resolutions, so have to delay sending AGM invitations to shareholders.

- Will there be any need to have a resolution re-electing our Timmy (LOL!)?
- Will some resolutions about non-Execs re-election be necessary, if they fall on their sword, for past serious failures?
- How many new shares will need to be authorised, and thus require an AGM resolution to get authorised?
- Will the AGM venue change?

I believe the resolutions had to be sent out today or tomorrow (to be within a 21 day window). If the resolutions wern't finalised, then the AGM had to be put back.

[chronicler] 02/7/2009 08:50

It looks like the shift in date of the AGM to one week later is to allow their now reduced staff resources time to address the situation and report the results at or just before the rescheduled AGM on 29 July.

[vow] 02/7/2009 08:06

Wonder why the change in AGM? I can think of 10 bad reasons and only 1 good.

From The Times June 30, 2009

Change in climate fails to suit Alizyme

The drugs group had high hopes for its anti-obesity drug, but as diet pills have fallen from favour so have its shares

Alizyme, the pharmaceutical group whose share price grew fat on hopes for an anti-obesity drug, suffered a dramatic weight loss yesterday amid fears that it would go into liquidation if it could not raise new funds after its cash runs out at the end of August.

The shares, a bloated 192p three years ago, fell 2.42p to 2.88p after analysts at Charles Stanley, the broker, said: "The company's future hinged on securing licensing deals and a number of potential partners have ceased discussions. We view the likelihood of finding new partners as slim."

With diet pills having fallen from favour and health authorities encouraging lifestyle changes instead, Alizyme's Cetilistat obesity treatment has been unable to attract development partners outside Japan. This is bad news for Gartmore, which has a 12.3 per cent stake in shares and 9 per cent in derivatives.

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[silent cartographer] 02/7/2009 08:03

Dunders is a busy man... Between all his reports he has to write, posting on here all day, 24/7 and feeding his fat wife, he has little time to spare to phone Timiny.

Isn't that right Dunders ?

[dunderheed] 02/7/2009 07:08

VOW - why are you here?

I think most people are aware of QAZ - now however - you have showed yourself up to big a big a t*t as well with your Takeda time lines and comments about myself and others 'not under-standing the model' - continually standing up for the Timiny - who it clearly looks has been a little naughty - (watch out for ridiculous slander comments from the 'masters' candidate!!) - I wrote many times I had bought in spite of the Tim - you just wrote he was doing what any other ceo would be doing?!! If you remember I always wrote - according to my sources the Tim would not be at the agm (ie long gone) - and I stand by those words - take a look back and see who got the azm prognosis correct?!

Let's face facts - your own conduct on here and iii over the years - yes years - has been equally as biased and subjective as QAZ's - so really think on - before you go down such a road - as you will probably end up making yourself look a bigger t*t than already proven on here?

If however - you are the share-holder who lost significant amounts of money on azm (6 figure sum) - that has recently been brought to my attention then I apologise sincerely - as that news to me was really awful.