Aggreko Share Discussion Threads

[deckergj] 05/2/2009 16:19

beau, struggling to stay over 400 at the mo, but yes chart looking pos, once we are over this resistance.

deck

[beaudelaire] 05/2/2009 11:51

The chart looks very positive, can push through 420p+.

[deckergj] 27/1/2009 14:51

amd may it contimue

[beaudelaire] 27/1/2009 14:33

Good volumes and good strength today - many shorts closing
because when this beast starts reversing direction it's in a non-stop mode.

Expecting good contracts in Europe/Asia to be announded this or next week.
The recent storms caused havoc in all europe and Australia.

Also note Legal and General increasing its stake from 3% to 4%.

Overall a positive momentum is gathering.

[deckergj] 27/1/2009 14:23

Hope there is enough wellie to clear the £4 mark, if not today perhaps tomorrow
finger xd. but a good day anyhow

deck

[deckergj] 23/1/2009 14:57

hope so beua, I had my finger on the sell button @ 440 and never sold,
but that's life, confident still of a reverse as soon as the markets feel better, do not think any fundermentals will have much affect unless they are something extra special. bwdik.

deck

[beaudelaire] 23/1/2009 12:07

GE gave a good set of results.

Equipment and services grew by 9%.

AGK should move upwards soon -

[beaudelaire] 22/1/2009 15:17

Many shorts closing this pm.
Will start recovering very sharply from here.

[bountyhunter] 21/1/2009 19:59

header chart changed from 3 to 5 day to give a broader picture

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 15:03

If one keeps calm and doesn't panic the markets will
recover within a week.
AGK could easily be hoovering around 450p+

[luckyvince] 21/1/2009 14:38

Dow and S&P 500 up so far today after dow 4% loss yesterday so markets may be turning

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 13:51

lucky -
I believe 2009 will be a "yoyo" year for both, stocks and markets.
This is why we are set to rebound at some point soon.
After a week or so, I know nothing, I am from Barcelona, as Manuel said once.

[luckyvince] 21/1/2009 13:47

Almost like a game of tennis. Great for shorts/longs. Also interesting, chart up AGK with FTSE over last 3 months (only). Apart from being set apart at outset, its almost a perfect match. Adds to your rebound theory Beaudelaire.

I'm sure there is a pun link here somewhere with the tennis theme, but I'm not going to use it. I've used set and match, just need to be GAME and buy some more AGK.

apologies to all for the pathetic attempt at humour.

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 13:09

lucky -
Interestingly after each long fall the share price recovered
sharply between 60p to 120p, each time, almost in a straight line.
This is now the 4th sharp drop since end of October 08.

[luckyvince] 21/1/2009 12:58

Have to agree with you Beaudelaire, this is the longest fall period for AGK (14 days) in the last 3 months and exactly matches this recent fall period of the ftse which also started on 7th Jan. Puts FTSE within, roughly 5% of it's Nov low so in my opinion, and providing FTSE holds at/above 3800, this should be around the bottom of the dip and a great time to buy.

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 12:17

Just a general note on markets -
One has to be very carreful as the general market is being shorted
via the banks as present.
It takes a while to build a rising trend which never stops.
So everybody is long until the markets peak (1 - 2 weeks).
Then the reverse happens until everybody thinks the market will
never stop falling (again 1/2 weeks) - Where we are now -
Then, out of the blue, a trigger by a bit of news, analyst
shouting that everything is oversold, state intervention etc. the markets reverse in the oppposite direction for a few days recovering most of the losses.
I am expecting a turnaround as we have reached some kind of capitulation
floor especially in banking.
Logically the markets were falling via the banks.
Every major bank lost more than 50% - There is nothing left in them to fall any further.
So expect a recovery of the markets.

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 11:30

There are companies that are still defying the slowdown
because of their niche markets.
AGK being one of them, if one takes a look at say AMEC, Serco, Kier
and many others, all in support services (Amec and Kier in construction).
(It's not an invitation to buy their stocks)
They are florishing despite the downturn because they excel
in their area still in demand.

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 11:24

Scburbs -
Agree that the outlook is important.
In general no company has any visibility even for the next 6 months.
But the strength of AGK is that it has at least some visibilty for 08/09.
Then add the increase in the frequency of disasters in the planete
for the last 10 years.
Then add the countries that cannot afford any power grid refurbishment
or development (Africa, Asia, South America etc.)
Then add all the international events that will take place you can
easily see that AGK has a finger in every pie. Its experience and success
make it the best choice for any lucrative contract.
(The next one will be the 2012 London Olympics)
My logic is that AGK doesn't want to blow too much its trumpet while the rest
of the world is suffering.
Meaning that despite tough times it is doing far better expected.
Thus why it was upgraded.

[scburbs] 21/1/2009 11:14

Beaudelaire,

No argument from me that AGK's share price has outperformed. However, when I look at the economic outlook I wonder whether that period of outperformance is set to come to an end. However, in the short term it could easily bounce back to £5 on a FTSE100 bounce. After all anything could happen in a few days in the current market!

A company's share price tends to focus on the outlook rather than the existing numbers. If the outlook changes the share price often responds before the results start to falter. I am focussing on the medium term growth drivers which look weak as explained above. It is possible that the massive economic stimulus that is set to take place could shelter AGK from the worst of the powerful headwinds it faces, but I wouldn't buy AGK for that reason.

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 10:36

Scburbs -
Check every sector and almost every stock
and see how much each stock lost for the last few weeks.
From miners, oilers, construction, banks, software, hardware, NGT etc.
How this compares with AGK ? AGK lost the least !
To me AGK is better placed to recover in any FTSE and DOW rally
because it has facts and numbers.
Then the FTSE and DOW will not just drop eternally (for the last two weeks
so far) as they have to rally at some point this week or next.

[scburbs] 21/1/2009 10:27

No doubt that AGK is performing well currently. However, the warning signs are in place and the warning signs are coming from the company! Just don't be surprised when the warning signs turn into profit warnings.

"Our North American and European businesses have been more resilient than we expected in the face of negative GDP growth, but it is unlikely that they will be able to defy the economic headwinds indefinitely. However, we expect that International Power Projects, which will enter 2009 with over 30% more capacity on rent than at the start of 2008, will perform strongly in the first half, and that it will more than offset any weakness in the Local businesses."



For reference the majority of the customers for International Power Projects are power utilities in Africa, Middle East, Asia and South America.

"The driver of demand in these markets is that our customers' economies are growing, with consequent increases in demand for additional power which cannot be met in the short term by installed generated capacity." [Source P20 of 2007 accounts in relation to the International Power Projects Division]

My view on the various economic growth drivers are: Africa and South America (Commodities), Middle East (Construction) and Asia (Manufacturing growth for export). Each of these has a somewhat uncertain outlook. However, International Power Projects will continue to perform well in H1 because the slowdown in these areas is behind the curve compared to the US/Europe slowdown. However, the slowdown in these areas is underway (e.g. mines closures due to low commodity prices, construction slowdown in the Middle East/property prices crashing in Dubai, China export growth has gone negative etc.) which will mean that a greater proportion of their power will be met from domestic infrastructure with less need to top up temporary power from AGK.

As I said, the indicators are in place and there are clear reasons why AGK has retreated from £6. Happy to have a debate here, but if my bearish views upset people here just say as I am also happy not to post them.

[beaudelaire] 21/1/2009 10:05

lucky -
While other companies in many sectors are trying to limit losses,
as sales drop, Aggreko is predicting profit and sales numbers ahead
of expectations.
I also think that AGK has proven to be very professional
in important events.
Two important references are: The yesterday US elections
and the Beijing olympics. AGK did a great job without any hick up.
Then, who will trust a new commer for any future important event ?
What reference better that the US election and the Beijing olympic games
any "competitor" can offer ? I cannot see any.
AGK has already passed its crucial tests and will be the de-facto
choice for future important events around the world.
Just these two past events will make competition to AGK impossible.