Aggreko Share Discussion Threads

[luckyvince] 21/1/2009 09:44

Good post beaudelaire, always worth re-iterating strong updates and reminds us why we all still hold.

[scburbs] 20/1/2009 21:44

A reminder of the GDP bear case stated by the company itself. This company trades at a massive premium to general plant hire companies (not as specialist as AGK or as global, but they do compete in its market) like AHT and SDY. Whilst AGK trade on a premium rating any disappointment in earnings growth could massively hit the share price. Unrealistic to think AGK can sail through a downturn of such severity, it certainly didn't last time around!

scburbs - 12 Dec'08 - 08:48 - 183 of 215 edit

Always worth remembering that Aggreko is a late cycle performer and you would expect it to continue to outperform in the early stage of any downturn. This is because the relevant decisions for the investment projects will have been made months or years earlier.

There is a very good summary of the GDP link to Aggreko's performance on pages 9 and 10 of the attached accounts.



Whilst there are clear potential future benefits in terms of power outages there is a more immediate concern based on the following statement:

"[projection not statement] .... in times of negative growth, our revenues would fall faster than the economy as a whole. And the impact on profits would be severe"

The apparent resilience of AGK's model is that this point has not really been hit yet due to the investment decision timescale. However, I suspect that come H2 next year this factor will be in play. Given this is potentially to come into play in H2, in my view, AGK should be sharply cutting capex to preserve cashflow. It is not which leads to a danger of much lower utilisation rates in future.

[luckyvince] 20/1/2009 19:57

doubled up at 383. thought of waiting a little longer to see if we returned to nov low of 364 ish but plan was always to buy more at 400 so extra bonus. now averaged at 439 so happy to sit and wait for return to 500.

[beaudelaire] 20/1/2009 11:53

"AGK has been awarded a number of contracts which will
make it the principal supplier of temporary power and temperature control
equipment to support ceremonies related to the Inauguration of Barack Obama as
the 44th President of the United States in Washington DC."

This is one of the best reference for AGK regarding ceremonies and
big events such as Beijing olympics.
I can already see AGK being awarded the 2012 London Olympics.
If not already awarded.

[nurdin] 16/1/2009 12:50

Cheers deck.....Cant see why it shouldnt go back to £5 short term, as long as the broader markets behave

[deckergj] 15/1/2009 13:35

good for you nurdin, welcome aboard

deck

[nurdin] 15/1/2009 09:33

Bought a few....that news plus the rating makes a compelling case

[beaudelaire] 15/1/2009 07:58

Providing power for such a huge ceremony and event is
the rubber stamp of confidence on the unique experience of this company.
This company is special in its niche business.
One should own its shares for the long term.
One of the best defensive stocks and yet growing companies.

[deckergj] 15/1/2009 07:45

15/01/2009 07:00 UKREG US Contracts

good news, may help the share price today!

deck

[deckergj] 13/1/2009 16:19

will do beau, thanks

deck

[beaudelaire] 13/1/2009 16:10

decker -
Agree - I trade too.
Whenever you have time take a look at a few defensive stocks
that could be good for trading too.
1/ SRP
2/ TATE
3/ RSW

1/ and 3/ gave bullish trading Updates recently.
2/ a trading play and its business improved since September 08.

I don't touch AIM stocks, miners/oilers or techs at the moment.

[deckergj] 13/1/2009 16:00

you are right there beau, that's why I am in AGK but I do try to trade sometimes when the opportunity arises and there was one ( I thought )
yesterday

deck

[beaudelaire] 13/1/2009 15:41

In any down market, only those stocks with a promising
future will recover first and quickly.
AGK recent Trading Update is the best proof to hold on.

[deckergj] 13/1/2009 15:36

Lucky, it was my intension to sell just below the 440 after seeing the head/shoulders forming,and the share price going below the 50day ma, yesterdays auction pushed the share price back up to 442ish so I held on, and held on, and held on, but it looks as if it is clawing its way back.

[luckyvince] 13/1/2009 14:12

deck, what was your plan? hope i didn't put you off.

[beaudelaire] 13/1/2009 13:12

Very low volume today anyway.
People may have watched the programme last night on
trading. They followed the example of how to panic !
Basically everthing is artificially just following the FTSE
which is hammered by the banks and miners.
Good entry points today.

[deckergj] 13/1/2009 12:40

any one else noticed the sales at the mo??? most ?????

deck

[deckergj] 13/1/2009 11:58

yes lucky, but did I go with mine/ did I heck

deck

[luckyvince] 13/1/2009 10:46

well that throws that theory out the window.

[deckergj] 12/1/2009 20:39

you are right there Lucky, perhaps I was looking on the negatives instead of the +ives, hope you are right also with the 520.

ATB

deck

[luckyvince] 12/1/2009 17:04

Yes but we have had 3 higher highs and 3 higher lows since the (hopefully) nov bottom so if it holds then imo next high could be 520 ish.

[deckergj] 12/1/2009 16:40

just about held beaudelaire, thanks to the auction but I do not like the look of the head/shoulders just formed, so am watching closely tom.

deck

[beaudelaire] 12/1/2009 15:30

Let's hope 440p will hold.

[deckergj] 07/1/2009 18:17

lucky - pure luck that it moved down so soon, will see what tom brings, have not got back in yet

deck