Advance Energy Share Discussion Threads

[purple11] 29/4/2021 09:44

nice to see it firming up.still in the buy zone gla

[someuwin] 29/4/2021 09:40

Still largely unnoticed here imo.

[therealtonythetiger] 28/4/2021 19:05

Lots of chunky buys flying in as well.

[cal57] 28/4/2021 18:05

Thanks massive potential here still flying under the radar atm.

[therealtonythetiger] 28/4/2021 12:55

Robbed from LSE

www.upstreamonline.com/politics/opinion-timor-leste-pining-for-success-as-bell-tolls-for-only-producing-field/2-1-1000158

OPINION: Timor-Leste's government and petroleum officials are yearning for success from this year's planned exploration campaign as the curtain is set to soon come down on the country's one and only producing field.
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If any wells come up trumps, they could eventually lead to new taxation revenue, which the country desperately needs.
Timor-Leste is totally reliant on petroleum revenues to meet the government's budgetary spending.
However, it has only one producing field — Bayu-Undan — which is nearing the end of its productive life.
This partly explains why the country's petroleum officials are feverishly promoting the 2021 licensing rounds.
There are 11 offshore blocks on offer and seven onshore blocks. Bids close on 1 October 2021.
There will likely be good take-up of onshore permits but the offshore could prove less attractive, given the number of unsuccessful wells over the years.
If this year's planned offshore appraisal well on the Buffalo oilfield by Australia’s Carnarvon Petroleum and UK company Advance Energy is a success, it will be the country's first good well in years.
Likewise, if privately owned Timor Resources has success with its onshore exploration campaign this year, it could prove transformative.
Timor-Leste has only a handful of active offshore exploration permits, held by Eni, Timor GAP, Carnarvon and SundaGas.
Onshore, there are two exploration permits, both held by Timor Resources.
Bayu-Undan will get a reprieve if operator Santos bears fruits with its imminent three-well infill drilling campaign.
In an absence of drilling success, however, Timor-Leste will again look to the large Sunrise discoveries operated by Woodside.
Timor-Leste owns nearly 57% of the field and wants to establish an onshore liquefied natural gas facility on its south coast, but Woodside has said it will not fund the plant.
Consequently, the upstream and downstream capital requirements on the government would be daunting and it would take years for Sunrise to be developed.
Authorities in Dili will be crossing their fingers for imminent onshore success and a Buffalo charge.

[therealtonythetiger] 27/4/2021 12:18

No worries..
Cut n Paste to ADVFN is always a pain..

[the chairman elect] 27/4/2021 09:55

From the other ADV thread

[cal57] 26/4/2021 21:01

Apologies for pasting the full article didn't think the link would work

[cal57] 26/4/2021 20:59

Thanks for the link .That's a pretty comprehensive and positive research note.

[cal57] 26/4/2021 19:35

22ND APRIL 2021- A management team with some 120 years' collective experience is steering a growth strategy that aims to partner into established projects.

Advance Energy PLC - Advance Energy’s growth strategy is set to make experience pay
There is a crucial component to success of a business that cannot be quantified on the balance sheet – it’s a thing called experience.

In oil E&P, for example, it helps to have a team that has been through periodic industry booms and busts and can hold its nerve when others are unsure.

A deep well of knowledge also helps with problem solving and finding creative solutions.

If a business was measured by the depth of the experience on offer, then Advance Energy PLC (LON:ADV) would be a sure-fire winner.

Led by Leslie Peterkin, the senior team has a collective 120 years in oil and gas. I’ll say that again in case you didn’t hear me …. 120 years.

It’s why the former Shell man and his team were taken seriously by mid-tier Aussie operator Carnarvon Petroleum, which chose Advance as its 50-50 partner for the Buffalo farm-in (of which more a little later).

The strategy of Peterkin, chairman Mark Rollins and technical guru John Battrick is a simple, but elegant one – and speaks to experience mentioned above.

Advance is only interested in existing reserves or resources where there is the ability to unlock value “through insights from original technical work, commercial acumen or advantaged relationships”.

It has no hankering to be the operator, but, where it does farm in, it will do so with a single credible operating partner, rather than being part of a consortium.

That allows it to exert a significant degree of influence in the relationship. As Peterkin says: “We want to constructively engage with our operators to ensure that the joint venture always follows the path of maximum asset value.”

“That's what it is about, from my point of view. As a two-party joint venture that means we can bring our value-adding ideas to the table.

“We might spend our own money to be able to table detailed concepts for our Operators to consider in the context of maximising value.”

Advance is targeting assets in the eastern hemisphere that have a short timeline (three to five years) to reaching a significant inflexion point. It will keep the overheads low by outsourcing much of the work.

The strategy has been put into practice with the Buffalo farm-in, an offshore re-development concept in Timor Leste that was one of the leads brought in by the management team when they established the company.

Advance has firm criteria in terms of targeting proven resources and existing or near-term cash flow, but is otherwise relatively agnostic with regards to gas or oil, onshore or offshore, and specific jurisdictions. As Peterkin pointed out, a non-operating strategy means Advance can ‘parachute’ into a new jurisdiction at any time, and has no need to build a portfolio of assets in any jurisdiction. Value is all that counts for Advance.

The company recently raised US$30mln via a share placing, which provided it with the US$20mln required to farm into a 50% share of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor by funding the drilling of the B-10 appraisal well.

In the latter part of the year, Carnarvon will drill the undrilled crest of the structure on the acreage with the aim of recertifying resources to reserves. Currently, the certified contingent resource sits at 34mln stock barrels.

This is not virgin territory and as the field was developed and operated by BHP and Nexen from 1999, producing 21mln barrels of crude over five years until it was shut in. At its peak output was a very respectable 45,000 barrels of oil a day from 2 wells.

Advance believes that with a three-well, four-slot wellhead supported by a jack-up rig and floating storage facility (FSPO), Buffalo could be ramped back up to 40,000 barrels a day.

What’s being extracted is a very light crude (53-degree API). The recovery factors would be up around the 60% mark based on the performance of surrounding abandoned fields – which is very much in the upper echelon.

Here’s where you start to understand the scale and potential of the opportunity – not to mention that quick payback.

Based on the economics laid out in the competent persons report (CPR), year-one gross free cash flow would be in the order of US$276mln at US$50 oil, and oil prices are well above $60 today..

Advance has negotiated a position whereby the capex costs are repaid before either of the partners draws a dividend from the production proceeds.

Under the financial scenario outlined above, project payback would take less than 12 months.

Based on the B-10 appraisal well being drilled at the very end of this year, the final investment decision could be made in the first quarter of next year (all things being in equal).

Realistically, this means first oil would be produced in late 2023. By oil industry standard, that’s Usain Bolt fast, but typical for the type of development contemplated by the newly formed joint venture.

The rosy picture painted thus far omits one major slice of reality – the project is likely to cost in the order of US$125mln with a likely split of 70%-30% debt to equity.

But remember the payback, the fact that 63% of the field’s reserves will be produced over the first two years of the five to six-year life of the field. Such economics will appeal to even the most risk averse lenders ensuring project finance should not be an issue.

It is unlikely that Advance will be a one-hit wonder, single-asset investment. Indeed, Peterkin and his team were looking at “five or six opportunities” before they focused on Buffalo.

“We're chasing three different assets at the moment. One of them is very similar to Buffalo in shape,” says Peterkin

“Another one is a production asset that we're very keen to get hold off because we'd like to underpin the company's finances.

“That conversation has gone well, but it might take some time to finalise it for a variety of reasons. None of them are finalised or sorted.”
In a sector that has been long on problems and short of good news recently, Advance promises some real excitement.

[therealtonythetiger] 26/4/2021 18:36

www.advanceplc.com/investor-relations/research-notes/disclaimer/?id=1270

click i accept and you will be able to download tennyson note

[someuwin] 26/4/2021 08:59

All buys so far today.

[patch13] 23/4/2021 23:10

Have a look at the Tennyson report - they will be as close as anyone - seem to think two of the deals are not dilutive

[purple11] 23/4/2021 21:19

what is the chance they suspend again to do the next two transactions they have planned?

i want to go in here heavy but dont want to if they are going to go into suspension again before the Buffalo well in October.

any answers would be much appreciated. thenks

[purple11] 23/4/2021 13:26

with a 95%cos its almost certain to double by spud to@40m cap.i reckon itll move aug/sept so only a few months to tuck them away for.

im holding through the drill for the best exit price.gl

[someuwin] 23/4/2021 11:55

Six months is not that far away. But in reality it's what makes this such a guaranteed winner. Buy now and the price will rise (probably double or more even before they drill). So no risk whatsoever. And even when the do drill in October the chance of success is a whopping 95%.

Valuation here currently covered by cash. Almost like free money for those with a bit of patience!

[purple11] 23/4/2021 10:40

not sure why its dropping so low.

may be because october is a long way off.....

[purple11] 23/4/2021 10:28

added the second buy in.

one more buy for me if i see 2p.


easy 3 bagger imo.gl

[purple11] 23/4/2021 08:28

abit lower and im in for my second buy

[purple11] 23/4/2021 08:20

hoping to pick up some cheap ones for my second buy.

holding them all through the drill for easy money.

i can wait for the drill.gla

[therealtonythetiger] 22/4/2021 14:21

Advance Energy

First day of dealings for Advance Energy today following the raise of £21.8m at 2.6p. It comes as the company completes the acquisition of a 50% equity interest in Carnarvon Petroleum Timor the owner of a 100% WI in the Buffalo PSC offshore Timor-Leste.

I have met with a number of directors of Advance and have been most impressed with their initial deal and their exciting plans. Shades of a junior Jadestone yes but they have plenty to do to emulate them but it is a sincere form of flattery to Paul Blakeley and team…

[therealtonythetiger] 22/4/2021 14:18

Release of Escrow Documents

Advance Energy (AIM:ADV), the energy company seeking growth through acquisition or farm-in to non-operated interests in discovered upstream projects, is pleased to announce that, further to its announcement of 19 April 2021, the Escrow Agent has now released the Escrow Documents in respect of the completion of the Group's subscription for a 50 per cent. equity interest in Carnarvon Petroleum Timor Unipessoal Lda ("Carnarvon Petroleum Timor") following the transfer of the subscription amount of US$20 million payable under the Buffalo Subscription Agreement to the bank account of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor.

The Company's Admission Document and further information on the Company can be found on Advance Energy's website at: www.advanceplc.com

Capitalised terms used in this announcement (unless otherwise defined) carry the same meanings as those ascribed to them in the Company's Admission Document dated 31 March 2021 and/or the Company's announcement of 31 March 2021, unless the context requires otherwise.

[cal57] 22/4/2021 11:13

Future looking very promising.

[purple11] 22/4/2021 10:51

thanks for clarifying that gl