Advance Energy Share Discussion Threads

[alexios1201] 22/4/2021 10:27

There is no need for suspenders unless the deal is larger than $100millionSimple acquisitionAdvance already have Buffalo asset on their books at 8p valuation or ~$100millionIf the acquisition target is larger than their current asset then the company need to file the admission doc.Besides, when you do a simple merger when you merge two companies there is no need for suspension.Good Fortunes all

[teamrilex] 22/4/2021 09:12

Thanks someuwin

[therealtonythetiger] 22/4/2021 08:51

Thanks cal

[someuwin] 22/4/2021 08:40

Tennyson Securities (Shard Capital) note ADV valuation 8p. (Unrisked > 12p)

Optiva Securities yesterday says 12.1p...

"In January 2021, we calculated that ADV’s 50% net interest in Buffalo could be worth up to US$165m, based on a successful appraisal well and subsequent development project. With the inclusion of free cash available to the Company, this generates an indicative valuation of 12.1p per share."

[teamrilex] 22/4/2021 08:19

I'm new to all this, so apologies for naïve questions... what do people see as targets for this stock... short term, medium term, long term?

[purple11] 22/4/2021 01:14

90%cos on the well is the main thing that got me in here.hoping for a dip again to buy again.

[purple11] 22/4/2021 01:11

only thing i can see spoiling a run up to spud is the 2 more RTOS's they want to do this year?if they suspend again for 3 or 4 months how will people be able to buy the shareprice up for spud?

[cal57] 21/4/2021 19:47

Sorry should have added taken from LSE.

[cal57] 21/4/2021 19:44

RE: tennyon securitiesToday 11:57
2.2 FORWARD WORK PROGRAMME
In preparation for drilling in H2 this year, Carnarvon has already awarded the drilling
management services contract to Petrofac, and has initiated the tender process to secure a
rig. The reservoir itself is at a depth of just over 3,000m, but lies in very shallow water (c.25m),
meaning that a relatively inexpensive jack up rig is sufficient.
The appraisal well, Buffalo-10, is being designed as a vertical well, which will pass through a
previously unpenetrated crest (of the proven Elang reservoir – see Figure 5 above). The well
is also designed to be sufficiently deep to establish the current oil water contact. This will
provide valuable information as to the homogeneity of the reservoir and de-risk the ultimate
recovery factor estimates.
The well is expected to take in the region of 27 days to reach total depth and conclude
evaluation logging. A full production test will be unnecessary given the extensive reservoir
data available from the past. On completion, the well will be suspended in preparation for
development drilling. On full development, the appraisal well will be re-entered, with a
horizontal sidetrack kicking off and running along the top of the reservoir section.
In terms of timing, we expect the well to spud in early Q4, implying initial drilling results in
November. These results will allow for Advance to book commercial reserves which in turn
should unlock development finance for the project. We expect FID in early 2022.
2.3 FUNDING AND VALUATION
The recent US$30m equity raise will cover Advance’s share of drilling expenses (US$20m), as
well as provision for cost overruns and working capital to comfortably see the company
through to FID on the project.
In terms of development costs, we expect a substantial portion of the remaining c.US$125m
(gross) costs to be debt funded. To this end, we understand that Advance has already had
scoping discussions with several potential lenders (including traditional RBL lenders and oil
trading houses), which have indicated strong levels of demand.
For prudence our model is ungeared, however we would expect that as much as 70% of the
gross development costs will be debt funded. Advance has committed to arranging the
finance for the balancing c.US$35-40m of equity required, which is likely to be in the form of
debt to the project, which can be fully recovered from 100% of field cashflow until paid back.

from LSE.

[purple11] 21/4/2021 19:28

spud in early q4 thanks

[cal57] 21/4/2021 19:19

RE: tennyon securitiesToday
2.2 FORWARD WORK PROGRAMME
In preparation for drilling in H2 this year, Carnarvon has already awarded the drilling
management services contract to Petrofac, and has initiated the tender process to secure a
rig. The reservoir itself is at a depth of just over 3,000m, but lies in very shallow water (c.25m),
meaning that a relatively inexpensive jack up rig is sufficient.
The appraisal well, Buffalo-10, is being designed as a vertical well, which will pass through a
previously unpenetrated crest (of the proven Elang reservoir – see Figure 5 above). The well
is also designed to be sufficiently deep to establish the current oil water contact. This will
provide valuable information as to the homogeneity of the reservoir and de-risk the ultimate
recovery factor estimates.
The well is expected to take in the region of 27 days to reach total depth and conclude
evaluation logging. A full production test will be unnecessary given the extensive reservoir
data available from the past. On completion, the well will be suspended in preparation for
development drilling. On full development, the appraisal well will be re-entered, with a
horizontal sidetrack kicking off and running along the top of the reservoir section.
In terms of timing, we expect the well to spud in early Q4, implying initial drilling results in
November. These results will allow for Advance to book commercial reserves which in turn
should unlock development finance for the project. We expect FID in early 2022.
2.3 FUNDING AND VALUATION
The recent US$30m equity raise will cover Advance’s share of drilling expenses (US$20m), as
well as provision for cost overruns and working capital to comfortably see the company
through to FID on the project.
In terms of development costs, we expect a substantial portion of the remaining c.US$125m
(gross) costs to be debt funded. To this end, we understand that Advance has already had
scoping discussions with several potential lenders (including traditional RBL lenders and oil
trading houses), which have indicated strong levels of demand.
For prudence our model is ungeared, however we would expect that as much as 70% of the
gross development costs will be debt funded. Advance has committed to arranging the
finance for the balancing c.US$35-40m of equity required, which is likely to be in the form of
debt to the project, which can be fully recovered from 100% of field cashflow until paid back.

[fund1] 21/4/2021 17:38

Management have a great track record. Not interested in exploration only proven fields. So far they have kept there word.

[purple11] 21/4/2021 17:15

it says they are drilling in H2 2021 does anyone know if its Q3 or Q4?

[therealtonythetiger] 21/4/2021 15:41

hxxps://optivasecurities.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a1fb04e53b13f07f4600886ee&id=052fc5d6f9&e=d01ed4906b

[someuwin] 21/4/2021 15:39

ADV's 50/50 JV partner on Buffalo, Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd - valued at $430m on the ASX. Clearly a serious player.

[therealtonythetiger] 21/4/2021 15:38

Company update
Advance Energy (ADV) has completed the acquisition of a 50% equity interest in
Carnarvon Petroleum Timor Unipessoal Lda, a subsidiary of ASX-listed Carnarvon
Petroleum which holds a 100% working interest in the Buffalo PSC offshore TimorLeste. Since the completion of a successful placing to raise £21.8m (c.US$30.0m) of new capital, ADV has also transferred the consideration of US$20m payable to Carnarvon under the terms of the Buffalo Subscription Agreement. These funds will now be used to fund an appraisal well on the Buffalo field in order to convert existing contingent oil resources into reserves and instigate a full field development programme.
In December 2020, ADV’s shares were suspended from trading pending the conditional
acquisition of an indirect interest of up to 50% in the TL-SO-T 19-14 Production Sharing Contract (the Buffalo PSC) located offshore Timor-Leste. Under the terms of the deal, ADV agreed to subscribe for up to 50% of the equity in a JV with Carnarvon Petroleum Timor Unipessoal Lda for a consideration of up to US$20m.
On 31 March 2021, ADV announced that it had conditionally raised £21,842,600 before
expenses (c.US$30.03m) through the issue of 840.1 million new shares at 2.6p per share.
With net proceeds estimated at £20.0m (US$27.5m), Advance Energy TL Limited (AETL), a wholly owned subsidiary of ADV, has now transferred the US$20m payable to Carnarvon under the Buffalo Subscription Agreement.
This subscription will fully fund the B-10 appraisal well on the field, expected to be drilled in H2 2021 and intended to convert 2C contingent resources of 34.3 mmbbls into 2P reserves following re-certification and instigate a full field development thereafter.
Depending on the success of B-10, the Buffalo PSC has the potential to deliver gross production volumes of up to 40,000 bopd within three years.
In conjunction with the placing, in which the Company’s CEO and Chairman both
participated, ADV undertook a 10:1 capital consolidation and as such, the Company now has 1,027.6 million shares in issue as at 19 April 2021.
Such was the success of the recent fund raising, ADV now has material financial
headroom, equivalent to approximately US$7.5m. We understand that c.US$2.5m of this
represents a provision for the Company’s share of potential additional costs associated with the B-10 well. However, ADV also has an additional US$5.0m of working capital with which to fund its ongoing strategy of pursuing further value adding acquisitions.
In January 2021, we calculated that ADV’s 50% net interest in Buffalo could be worth up to US$165m, based on a successful appraisal well and subsequent development project.
With the inclusion of free cash available to the Company, this generates an indicative valuation of 12.1p per share. We note that the successful placing and the completion of the acquisition have now de-risked this valuation substantially, mitigating a range of commercial risk factors by a significant degree. Although several incumbent technical risks remain which could justify a more aggressively risked outcome such as only the 1C resources being certified as reserves, we believe that an outcome even half the level of our preliminary assessment would deliver a highly attractive return equivalent to almost four times ADV’s initial investment which we calculate as a conservative valuation of 6p per share, a substantial uplift on the current share price.

[purple11] 21/4/2021 15:12

im in with my first of 3 buys gla

[someuwin] 21/4/2021 11:17

Proactive investor presentation on 29th - next Thursday should give this a big boost

[someuwin] 21/4/2021 08:28

Raised £21m at 2.6p.

Audited probability of appraisal well success 95%.

Tennyson Securities (Shard Capital) note valuation 8p. (Unrisked > 12p) current share price 2.1p

[someuwin] 21/4/2021 08:06

Looks very interesting now.

[the chairman elect] 20/4/2021 14:45

Investor Presentation

Advance Energy plc ( AIM:ADV ), the energy company seeking growth through acquisition or farm-in to non-operated interests in discovered upstream projects, will be hosting an investor presentation on 29 April 2021 at 19:00BST via the Proactive One2One Virtual Forum.

If you would like to register your interest at attending, please click on the following link: hxxps://event.webinarjam.com/register/1048/gwwg2hxy9

[copied from other ADV thread]

[therealtonythetiger] 20/4/2021 07:16

RNS


Advance Energy PLC (ADV)
Tuesday 20 April, 2021
Advance Energy PLC
Investor Presentation

RNS Number : 9596V
Advance Energy PLC
20 April 2021



20 April 2021



Advance Energy plc

Investor Presentation

Advance Energy plc ( AIM:ADV ), the energy company seeking growth through acquisition or farm-in to non-operated interests in discovered upstream projects, will be hosting an investor presentation on 29 April 2021 at 19:00BST via the Proactive One2One Virtual Forum.

If you would like to register your interest at attending, please click on the following link: hxxps://event.webinarjam.com/register/1048/gwwg2hxy9

[fund1] 19/4/2021 09:55

New board new start. Anybody got the new shares in there account yet?

[the chairman elect] 19/4/2021 08:40

!FOLLOWFEED
Advance Energy plc ( AIM:ADV ), the energy company seeking growth through acquisition or farm-in to non-operated interests in discovered upstream projects, is pleased to announce the completion of its acquisition of a 50 per cent. equity interest in Carnarvon Petroleum Timor Unipessoal Lda ("Carnarvon Petroleum Timor"), the holder of a 100 per cent. working interest in, and the contractor of, the Buffalo PSC, offshore Timor-Leste ("Acquisition"). The Acquisition constituted a reverse takeover of the Company, pursuant to the AIM Rules.



Advance Energy is also pleased to announce that admission of its Enlarged Share Capital to trading on the AIM Market of the London Stock Exchange will take place at 8:00a.m. this morning ("Admission"). The Company's Admission follows a successful placing, raising gross proceeds of £21,842,600 via the issue of 840,100,000 Ordinary Shares at a price of 2.6 pence per share (the "Placing"). The net proceeds of the Placing will be utilised to fund the subscription by Advance Energy TL Limited ("AETL") for equity in Carnarvon Petroleum Timor, which will be applied by Carnarvon Petroleum Timor to fund the drilling of the B-10 Appraisal Well and certain Buffalo PSC related costs, and for the Company's general working capital requirements.



On Admission, completion of the Buffalo Subscription Agreement becomes effective in escrow with the Escrow Agent being required to date the Escrow Documents and so completing the Acquisition. Following receipt by the Escrow Agent of copies of bank transfers showing that AETL has transferred or procured the transfer of the subscription amount of US$20 million payable under the Buffalo Subscription Agreement to the bank account of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor, the Escrow Agent will release the Escrow Documents to the various parties. This is expected to happen on or around 21 April 2021.