Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[gerhart] 02/5/2023 09:40

From the last RNS:

"The Company is presently in discussions with investors to raise additional funding under this loan note agreement on the same terms as previously announced - which may include further subscriptions by directors of the Company.
The Board of the Company is confident on concluding this additional financing which would extend the Company's cash runway from end of April 2023 until the end of May 2023".

So no update on 2nd May. Have we run out of cash. Or was there confidence spot on and they raised the money required to keep us going until the end of May? Toss a coin, I guess?

[blackhorse23] 19/4/2023 11:53

Switched to GATC , excellent opportunity

[igbertsponk] 18/4/2023 09:27

"PLEASE SOMEONE TAKE US OVER AND KEEP PAYING THE BOARD!!!"

[gerhart] 18/4/2023 07:35

In case You missed it. See RNS - major review - possible "sale".

Whatever happens, they won't simply give this away, particularly after all the funding levels - and just recent. But who will pay what? Maybe management given sweeteners by any "buyer" to stay onboard, and for loss of share value if agreed sale value low?

And if no agreement - then what.

Looks like we are ok now until end of May (more funding looks confirmed)

Squeaky bum time. For longs and shorts. And a lot of shorts will have driven this down recently, following TW advice.

Fingers crossed!

[daijavu] 11/4/2023 20:09

hxxps://indico.cern.ch/event/1271682/?fbclid=IwAR0aMoXPD8hTcxuTLuZLpe1zuS4XgVdBlb2sMO6L3Nkww6J6N7qTAj6N9pE

[daijavu] 06/4/2023 18:20

I understand your points gerhart.

I've been following the development of LIGHT for some years. While I'm not a scientist I'm convinced by what I've learned about it, its prevenance, the backgrounds of the people developing it and about proton beam therapy in general. I feel satisfied that if LIGHT generates proton beams to the required criteria for treating cancer then it will work. I have read nothing to suggest there are any negative issues whatsoever concerning proton beam therapy. It has been successfully used to treat cancers for very many decades and is considered far safer for patients than the more commonly used radiotherapy. The only reason why proton beam therapy hasn't replaced radiotherapy has been the enormous cost of cyclotrons.

We are all responsible for our own investment decisions. I've made mine and I'll only have myself to blame if I've got it wrong. I see the financial issues as by far the biggest threat to my investment in AVO.

It will dent my portfolio somewhat if AVO is forced into liquidation because of their financial ineptness but I'll survive, as will LIGHT. It can't be uninvented. Some other company will take it over if AVO goes under.

[gerhart] 06/4/2023 17:14

Agree on the finance issues, Daijavu.

My point on the treatment is that there has to be no negative issues and indeed that the benefits are clear on the treatment.

We can't take that to be a given. Though given all their knowledge and experience and and all the work that has gone on, then it would be a big unwelcome disappointment!

[daijavu] 05/4/2023 09:16

Proton Therapy is a very well tried and tested effective treatment for cancer that has been in use for very many decades. There is no doubt it works. LIGHT is simply new technology for delivering proton therapy. If LIGHT delivers proton beams, which it does, there is no doubt that it will also work. And with a positive result. I'm happy to accept that the tests needed for licencing are just a necessary formality.

My problem is with the inept BoD who have a track record of questionable financial management and of not keeping their promises.

I really thought we were there this time but, once again, the AVO BoD seems to be letting us down.

[gerhart] 04/4/2023 13:31

Who knows Kinwah. As I said before great scientific endeavour tarnish by poor financial management.

Mind, could they ever have raised most of what they need early in the process....probably not. Too much risk.

At least now they have a proven record - albeit still to be tested on mortal flesh, with a positive result. If that happens.... :)

[kinwah] 02/4/2023 17:30

Gerhart, the only chance of issuing new equity would be to accompany it with a restructuring of the share capital to convert the existing 25p shares to say a new ordinary share of 0.1p and a deferred share of 24.9p. It may be that some holders may think this would remove some support to the share price. We should know soon what will happen next.

[gerhart] 01/4/2023 17:52

We've two big hurdles which will be game changers if successful.

First is to deal with the fund raising. Goodness knows at the minute how this will be done, or how much dilution there will be - new shares etc. But it will be done. They just somehow enjoy going to the brink so often.

The second is the successful treatment of patient, supposedly in H2 this year. If that happens we won't have to think about orders or balance sheets or cashflow. Orders will come in, and before they do the share share price will have already rocketed.

What's anyone's take on the RNS about sales of shares? A substantial holder not waiting around? :(

[daijavu] 01/4/2023 17:12

According to Hardman in January, AVO expects to start getting an income from the sale of LIGHT in 2023 and be in positive cash flow in 2025 after £145m sales in that year.
After that AVO expects their sales will increase in number year on year.

Now could be a good time to buy. Before everyone else piles in. I might be wrong, of course. It wouldn't be my first mistake. I can't tell the future but I'm positive about AVO.

[danmart2] 01/4/2023 10:59

Treating a patient doesn’t = positive cash flow

This lot are over a year from positive cash flow, probably longer.

[kinwah] 01/4/2023 01:42

Naughty AVO has changed its registered office to 143 Harley Street without announcing it in an RNS which it should do under AIM Rule 17 unless it's been tucked away in one of the many operational statements. If AVO runs out of money, the bailiffs will have to know the right address to go to. Must say it looked very quiet at 143 Harley Street when I walked past last week.

[daijavu] 30/3/2023 08:21

They say they'll be treating the first patients at Daresbury later this year.

[qipincha] 29/3/2023 16:14

How much cash they have in hand? When they can deliver the system?

[daijavu] 28/3/2023 08:00

From how AVO seems to work, they outsource production. They don't make many, or any, components themselves. What they've done up to now is focus on the final assembly. That means that volume ought not to be an issue. Cost could be taken care of by building to order, in which case the purchasers pay the costs of production before they get the machine. AVO have already calculated the selling price and their anticipated profit so I assume the difference is their anticipated cost of production. To get to those figures they must have agreements in place in which the manufacturers of the components provide AVO with their cost of production figures. AVO doesn't have any factories outside of Daresbury because they won't need them.

They seem to be planning to be an asset light company, a bit like Apple and Microsoft who don't actually make anything themselves. They outsource everything and get paid a lot of money for selling it all to you and me.

I anticipate that AVO might be similar. All they need to do now is get over their present financial difficulties.

[danmart2] 28/3/2023 01:25

Indeed, but they must demonstrate they can build the machines to cost and volume - again the company are miles away in this regard.

[daijavu] 28/3/2023 01:00

The effectiveness of proton therapy has been known for many decades. LIGHT is merely an enormous advance on cyclotrons. It will make them obsolete very quickly. AVO has yet to demonstrate the effectiveness of LIGHT on a patient but that is scheduled to happen later this year. After that comes licencing in the USA and Europe. AVO are already well on the way to satisfying the licencing requirements. Once that happens obtaining sales shouldn't be a problem. Everyone will want as many LIGHT machines as they can get their hands on.

[danmart2] 27/3/2023 18:37

They must demonstrate how and when they turn a profit

The uncertainty is a killer

[daijavu] 27/3/2023 08:37

red hook.
While I'm not impressed by the BoD, I hope you're wrong. The AVO share price has been here before but AVO survived.

It's an unusually tight spread this morning and the first trades are buys

[red rook] 26/3/2023 19:43

... not a holder here, but have been following events over the years
... agree the technology is great but certainly not the BoD
... would appear they are intentionally driving AVO into the ground
... it will be picked up cheap in a fire sale, or after administration

... regarding ''if AVO folds, ... be unfortunate for AVO shareholders and for the scientific members of the AVO BoD''

... no need to worry about the BoD :-)
... on AIM, not all shareholders are created equal, irrespective of what the rules say
... it will certainly be unfortunate for the retail shareholders
... but the BoD will negotiate themselves a good deal what ever happens, or whoever takes over.
... it's a shame but that's the reality
... maybe that's why the BoD appear to be so laid back about the unfolding train crash

[daijavu] 26/3/2023 00:49

Most of the risk has now been removed and we are close to AVO making money. My main concern is that while LIGHT will undeniably be a success it might not be with AVO.

I believe that CERN still holds the rights to LIGHT so that if AVO folds, LIGHT could be licenced by CERN to another company. That would be unfortunate for AVO shareholders and for the scientific members of the AVO BoD who helped develop LIGHT from its early days under CERN a decade or more ago. Before AVO existed.

My view is that LIGHT makes AVO different from most other AIM companies and CERN's interest in LIGHT makes it more different still.

But what do I know?

[richman777114] 24/3/2023 20:00

I was once invested here and sold out at a lossIMO this is the poster boy of AIM 'gravy train' companies