Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[daijavu] 07/7/2022 01:48

It's almost like the good old days back in 2016 or thereabouts when LIGHT was just a couple of months from full development and AVO had about seven contracts for Chinese hospitals where LIGHT was to be installed within a year or two. They even had a grand contract signing ceremony in China attended by the then PM David Cameron. They were wonderful, heady days, full of promise, when the share price was around £4.

I was lucky. I sold just before the share price collapsed. Many others weren't so lucky.

I wonder if we're in for a repeat performance? We should soon know.

[gerhart] 28/6/2022 09:03

Could just be me, but every other week seems to bring news of a new fund raise/share issue/dilution.

Does no one in the management do financial planning and get it out of the way once every six months/year? Or would the size of the need be so clearly apparent then.

Still, institutions are still prepared to give, so maybe a small vote of confidence. We wait, we hope, we'll see the outcome - sometime!

[hybrasil] 22/3/2022 12:56

Like the shares. Waiting to be switched on!

[daijavu] 16/3/2022 10:48

I believe it is still being developed and waiting for LIGHT to be installed.

[waterloo01] 01/3/2022 07:32

No mention of Harley Street. Is it defunct?

[hybrasil] 01/3/2022 07:16

If I correctly interpret todays rns it says “More delays”

[altom] 04/11/2021 07:45

I cannot remember any other placing well above mkt price, like AVO. This must be positive news imho. I expect things to be very different by Easter. I am LTH and have been v.disappointed before, but surely this time……………

[gerhart] 06/9/2021 10:11

Daijavu, I agree that with AVO it has seemed like the long and winding road, rinse and repeat.

As I said before the letters of intent are meaningless. If the tech works, they can be sure there will be lots of orders. And if it doesn't, then there won't be any.

Though I guess we have to cut the company some slack for the covid period of disruption. Whether that will cause knock on problems now due to NHS (and other countries) being way behind on ordinary work, or it will provide opportunities due to terrible tragic delay in cancer treatment for patients, we will see.

I guess from the latest placing, we could be positive and ask ourselves why investors were prepared to pay well above market price. Are they so confident on what is coming relatively soon, obviously based on what they have been shown/told?

[daijavu] 03/9/2021 10:26

I'm waiting for solid news about progress with LIGHT. Nothing else matters. The rest is dilution, cash burn and ify news about possible contracts that might disappear into the ether like all the other AVO contracts before them.

[daijavu] 27/8/2021 12:14

The boost to the share price was very temporary

[uncleoswald] 11/8/2021 10:52

The last post was correct.....
They did need a large injection of cash.
But to raise it at a price above the current share price is surprising and unusual, but very good for the share price!!

[daijavu] 06/7/2021 21:46

Hi Twirl and robbiekeane

I was a LTH of AVO until I realised just how unreliable and untrustworthy the BoD are. I sold at 50p about 3 years ago. I'm now invested in a swathe companies, most of which are doing well.

The two things that keep me interested in AVOare LIGHT itself and the fact that the original main shareholders have never sold.

It is not impossible that we might see a repeat of 2018, with LIGHT not operational this year and the BoD issuing a revised development schedule early next year. Apart from that I agree that AVO probably needs a big injection of capital to manufacture and sell LIGHT in sufficient quantities to make the sort of profits we want to see.

[twirl] 22/6/2021 11:22

Daijavu>> I barely got out with my shirt. How much did you lose?

Hi daijavu yes still in the game bu not this one. gave up around 3 years ago when it spiked - recovered much of my prev loss. They just lost all credibility with me. Reminds me of one of those films where a monster lurks but no one has been killed for many a year so unsuspecting newcomers are attracted.

Was out of game for a few years but currently in SLP and SRC thanks to ST of IC.

[robbiekeane] 08/6/2021 11:12

daijavu

Not one of my major holdings, have about £10k in here. I like the concept, I like to see sales (or LOI). At the moment they require economy of scale, they need to produce a lot more product and a lot quicker. This takes money and I'm not sure they have enough to go it alone. They probably need partner(s) with deep pockets to really get going. Not trying to ramp it, just post articles I come across during research. I wouldn't say strong buy (just speculative buy) as I do believe in the LIGHT system but the management team appear to be on a different page from investors. I agree their timelines are appalling.

[daijavu] 08/6/2021 00:15

robbiekeane

I don't know how long you've been an AVO watcher. If it's been as long as I have you would know that this is not new news. AVO has been here before. Several times. It came to nothing each time.

I'm not saying that LIGHT will never work but I have had enough experience of the AVO BoD to want to see the money before I put any more of mine in. It might be later this year or it might be next year or it might be in five or ten years time. What is certain is that we are not there yet and I am not going to take any notice of yet another LOI or yet another of the many contracts that AVO have had and failed to meet.

You are welcome to put your money in, if that is your choice.

[robbiekeane] 05/6/2021 11:24

Broker note (house)...

AVO Advancing to Sales

Advanced Oncotherapy (LSE: AVO)

After six- seven years and over £130m investment in intense technical development the next generation of proton beam therapy (PBT) machine, today AVO took a significant commercial step forward. As it is announced that AVO have signed an LOI (Letter of Intent) with Saba Partners to purchase a three- treatment room LIGHT system for around £75.5m.

The system is to be installed at Glion in Switzerland which has been acquired by Saba Partners who are building a medical centre of excellence there. This is subject to a CE mark which is should be a mere formality and well on track for the LOI to become binding by March 2022.

Proton Beam is a well-established cancer treatment which until now has been rationed by the prohibitive costs. AVO’s technology, inspired by Cern of Geneva, significantly reduces the costs of this life saving treatment and there is significant potential market for the LIGHT system where it is estimated that 4,000 proton therapy centres are required worldwide to meet the demand while only 95 facilities currently exist. Working with Saba Partners over time there is the potential make the LIGHT system available to countries within the Gulf region. Other such deals seem likely and as the technical milestones are passed the higher AVO’s value becomes, This prospect is not reflected in the price at 38p and a market cap of £129m. Buy for the medium term.

[daijavu] 04/6/2021 14:32

gerhart. We are of one mind. I'm not invested but I'm watching and ready to put my money in if it really looks as if it will come to anything.

[gerhart] 04/6/2021 14:19

Daijavu, the RNS yesterday was just a "Letter of Intent" (LoI) - not actually a contract. But agree in some ways what you are implying.

I don't understand why they waste time on these worthless things. If the Tech doesn't work the LoI will come to nothing. If it does work then there'll probably be an order. (and there were lots of those before - worthless)

But if the Tech works - there'll be lots of orders from all sorts!

[daijavu] 03/6/2021 09:21

Hi twirl. I didn't realise you were still around.
Nothing much seems to have changed with AVO since the old days we lived through with them back around 2016. Where did all those contracts and all that cash disappear to? Today they've announced yet another contract. Subject to them ever getting LIGHT to work, of course.

We both have painful memories of the rock solid promises that they were absolutely, definitely, undeniably, on track to have LIGHT up and running by the end of that year. Then, when they eventually admitted that they were still years away from completion, all those Chinese contracts vanished, the share price tanked and Sinophi demanded their money back.

I barely got out with my shirt. How much did you lose?

[twirl] 13/5/2021 14:44

That paid for Goetz promotion designed to put some life in the old dog presumably indicating another cap in hand fund raise is imminent.

[robbiekeane] 29/4/2021 17:38

There is a Goetz Partners research note 27/04/2021 on AVO (paid for by Co.) stating Outperformance and a target price of £1.35. It's a detailed piece of work (17 pages).
The summary:
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis for AVO is shown in CHART 14. We have chosen to value the company on a DCF basis for a number of reasons. Firstly, AVO is a relatively young company in terms of its commercialisation stage in PT and while the technology is older than sixty years, PT has only recently witnessed a significant uptake in clinical adoption. Secondly, AVO’s approach is new and commercially untested. However, the
potential for AVO to build a strong position in the future radiation therapy market is significant and we note that the substantial potential upside derived from revenue sharing agreements are not included in our forecasts at this stage. For our DCF, we forecast AVO’s financial performance for 15 years to 2035E
to capture the company’s long-term potential. Free cash flows (“FCF”) are discounted, and risk adjusted using a discount factor of 20%, which we feel is appropriate for a company such as AVO, capturing the commercial risk associated with the company achieving our forecasts. This yields a fair value of £1.35
per share, representing c.3.5x upside to current trading levels.
Focus remains on commercial momentum growth and upcoming clinical inflection points
While there is a growing case for adoption as evidence of treatments where LIGHT could be of benefit such as LEAP, we maintain the view that developing commercial traction remains the key driver for AVO over the next 12 - 18 months. We expect further news flow regarding system sales in line with upcoming clinical development inflection points including first patient treated, although AVO has not recently
updated guidance on when this will occur. The LIGHT system is largely de risked from a technology perspective, in our view. However, despite the project being overseen by a number of world-renowned technical experts, and technology originally developed at CERN, we can appreciate why potential customers may not be willing to take a risk on the capital expenditure at this stage due to a lack of real-world evidence for the system. We therefore see the upcoming clinical development milestones as a key inflection point with the first human application of LIGHT likely to trigger an expansion of AVO’s order book.

[gclark] 23/4/2021 12:21

Somebody needing to sell maybe. There isn't much trading so just one seller can have a big impact on the price. Would be nice to have an update, and some timelines.

[hybrasil] 23/4/2021 11:16

When this comes good it could be very sweet

[gclark] 22/4/2021 16:37

Have they just done a fundraise at 35? If so, must be the last one, mustn't it?