Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[devonbeachbum] 19/8/2022 11:57

That Sabre loss burns deep in you Frankel! Share price recovery continuing probably more to do with divi hunters than analysts methinks.

[one_frankel] 16/8/2022 17:03

The Berenberg analyst states that 'Admiral delivers whatever the weather', hmmm, but has he even tried to consider how sensitive Admiral is to the prevailing market conditions with its extensive portfolio of investments!

...I mean seriously, these are people who are paid a pretty penny for their rather deep analysis/thinking!

[pj84] 16/8/2022 16:48

Berenberg: Admiral warrants a premium valuation

Motor insurance group Admiral (ADM) stands apart from peers Direct Line (DLG) and Sabre (SBRE), which reported profit warnings last month, after strong half-year results prove the stock warrants a premium valuation, says broker Berenberg.

Analyst Thomas Bateman said Admiral’s premium valuation will return as motor insurance prices should continue to rise for the rest of the year. There is also scope for earnings per share upgrades in 2023 and 2024. The analyst’s own estimates for those years are about 5% and 14%, respectively, above consensus.

He believes the 36% fall in share price year-to-date ‘has greatly under-appreciated the strength of the group’ and that the company ‘delivers, whatever the weather’ and should be rewarded for it.

‘The group’s international business remains a key disappointment to investors, particularly in the US where losses have accelerated. In our view, the group would perform better and be even more attractive to investors if it were to exit the US,’ he said.

Berenberg maintained a ‘buy’ recommendation with a price target of £29.03 on the stock, which rose 2.3% to close at £23.10 on Monday.

[one_frankel] 15/8/2022 13:43

Can the last decade or so not mean more than one decade and its bad for those affected, hmmm, what like 80% of the country's population!

...And is Admirals insurance the only game in town in a deeply saturated market where margins continue to be squeezed at an alarming rate?

...Its your prerogative whether you decide to invest at these levels as you pays your money you takes your chance but the price action now for me anyway is certainly becoming unsustainable for much longer.

[fenners66] 15/8/2022 12:44

OF - given how quickly this argument crumbled, you are not helping yourself....

One_Frankel
13 Aug '22 - 13:56 - 901 of 910
annualised performance of Berkshire Hathaway over the last two decades

One_Frankel
14 Aug '22 - 17:06 - 910 of 910
been declining in the last decade or so

I have no problem with someone not being positive about a stock , but what specific to Admiral are you calling out ?
You need to add some detail as general macro economics don't cut it.

For example looking back at previous recessions and correlation to unemployment , the rate may rise from today's 3.8% to say 5.5% - its bad for those affected but it means nothing changes for 98.3% of the working age population so its tinkering at the margins for car insurance .....

[one_frankel] 14/8/2022 17:06

What's so difficult to understand here, Berkshire Hathaway's historical annual performance when compared against the S&P has been declining in the last decade or so if you drilled down a little with the data!

...Unless of course one has a very very long-term view but it can't exactly be called 'Saged' investing now can it!

[brianbrain] 14/8/2022 16:30

Over the past 20 years, Berkshire is a percentage point ahead of the S&P 500, with a 10.3% annualized return against 9.2% for the index. What a melt you are

[one_frankel] 14/8/2022 16:12

Have you ever considered the impact on the bottom line of diminishing margins with such fierce competition in the sector that is ever increasing or even the prospect of a growing number of company debtors feeling the pinch in future!...And you certainly understand Admirals business very well but you unfortunately fail to acknowledge how the company is incredibly sensitive to the prevailing economic conditions with its rather extensive investment portfolio but is that really at the pinnacle of how resourceful this thread actually is to others!

...Shorter, hmmm!...See I've heard that same fu_ckin guff from posters on other threads with my commentary but lo and behold!

[bountyhunter] 14/8/2022 09:00

Good points Devon but the shorter above is probably best filtered/ignored all said and done or things will degenerate and the thread will be ruined which is probably what they want. This is a decent long term hold from here in my opinion, GLA, all holders that is!

[devonbeachbum] 14/8/2022 08:54

Thanks for the headsup Woodhawk. Clearly not going to get any insight that I'd missed myself.

[woodhawk] 14/8/2022 08:47

Don't encourage the idiot, Devonbeachbum - just use your filter - he's all over numerous boards posting drivel.

[one_frankel] 13/8/2022 14:34

They were certainly factored in which is why its had a near 30% rise since and the aftermath of ones pocket being squeezed is yet to be seen in forthcoming updates, wouldn't you agree or do you see the world in rose tinted glasses buddy!

[bountyhunter] 13/8/2022 14:20

those underlying economic conditions were factored in here some time ago and the recent results and market response show that Admiral is performing better than most with the market looking ahead of the immediate and near term economic situation

[one_frankel] 13/8/2022 13:56

Do you mean where the sun dont shine!...And I've never once stated its not a 'Quality' company for an investor but do you think Admiral will be immune to all those underlying economic conditions in future and it certainly is 'Timing' the market that is of grave importance currently my dear friend!

...By the way, Buffet is an aged-old investor thats been unwilling to adapt his investing with the sign of the times but you only have to refer to the annualised performance of Berkshire Hathaway over the last two decades to see that for yourself!...In other words, his investing thesis no longer works in the market but I'm sure one must take great pride in listening to all his rather redundant thinking hey!

[devonbeachbum] 13/8/2022 08:12

Take your panic selling 'help' and stick it somewhere. This is a quality company to invest in. It's time in the market not timing the market. Still you seem to know better than Buffet.

[one_frankel] 12/8/2022 13:27

You should try looking a little further back in time on this very thread and during Sabre's mass exodus when I clearly stated that this was fast becoming 'Value' investing but many were drowning in their sorrows thinking of much worse to come then!...But its now getting a little way ahead of itself with the price action so try not to hold onto the excessive baggage hey!

...By the way, many across Advfn need all the help they can get, have you not noticed buddy!

[devonbeachbum] 12/8/2022 12:55

When Frankel posts I feel like phoning the Samaritans.. Not related to Private Frazier are you? After you're post apocolyptic warnings the share price has recovered 13% Can you do some more please?

[one_frankel] 11/8/2022 19:50

If they were as resilient as one is led to believe with all this market uncertainty, you wouldn't have witnessed anything like the demise we saw here with Sabre!

...And this is a very strange and abnormal wider market environment that has a diverse range of menacing undercurrents brewing together simultaneously but who knows when that will ultimately implode especially when that sc_um US is involved but theres no doubt they're swiftly running out of options!

...So play the price action folks, build, accumulate and reduce, theres no other real alternative unless you want to be the one holding onto excess baggage in future!

[bountyhunter] 11/8/2022 18:52

One of the best of the insurers with an impressive yield, a decent core holding.

[topvest] 11/8/2022 18:37

Admiral results were very good - they are a class act and happy to hold having doubled up a month or two back. The economy is heading for very choppy waters, that's for sure. Admiral are a fairly defensive proposition in this market.

[woodhawk] 11/8/2022 15:29

Bank of America cuts Admiral price target to 1,960 (2,040) pence - 'underperform'

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JPMorgan raises Admiral price target to 1,780 (1,750) pence - 'underweight'

[one_frankel] 11/8/2022 12:36

The global economy is already in recession regardless of what those Central Bank goons state Jim but you only need to refer back to that buffoon Jerome Powell who was adamant that inflation was only ever transitory, so nothing to do with decades long quantitative easing and continuing to destabilise the global financial system where cracks have certainly started to appear for its sustainability!

...By the way, what you've done with derisking the portfolio is the 'Learned' approach of a savvy investor as this is not only an incredibly treacherous but dangerous market environment for an investor, make no mistake buddy!

[one_frankel] 11/8/2022 12:31

So you figured it all out then hey DevonBeachBum or does one need a little support to navigate through what awaits in future!

[jubberjim] 11/8/2022 07:43

Derisking some or part of a portfolio is not a bad idea

I started buying these at 21 and bought all the way down until 17

Just thought prudence dictates in the light of the forecast recessions both here and abroad, the ever escalating energy crisis and the vacuity of the current Tory party pretenders getting cash on the books is a sensible option

To date I have not heard one word as to how all the money spent (wasted in some cases) is going to be recouped similarly the ongoing situation in Ukraine needs to be financed

In my view taxes should be raised but should be aimed at those most well off in the first instance
Similarly any help with regard to heat and fuel costs should be going to the most disadvantaged those of us who can afford it should suck it up and hope things get better

At the end of the day profit especially if it exceeds that due from the dividend is not to be sneezed at

Still have a few left but am happier with the cash for time being

Good luck we will all need it