Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[city1911] 04/3/2022 10:52

Plus the the market value of second hand cars has gone up dramatically. So insurers are having to pay out more in the event of a vehicle being written off/stolen

[scribbler] 04/3/2022 10:40

But surely inflation affects the value of a claim - build and epair costs much higher for buildings insurance claims, parts and labour costs much higher for auto claims.

[fuji99] 04/3/2022 09:48

ADM is also insensitive to any inflation negative effect as there is no material purchase for the business at all; while retailers, industrials, oil/gas explorers and food producers would suffer from increase in costs of energy and raw materials. Insurance has no exposure to inflation.

[wall street trader] 04/3/2022 09:20

that's very true

[bountyhunter] 04/3/2022 08:33

Blue in a sea of red indicating that yesterday's fall was way overdone given the solid fundamentals.

[fuji99] 04/3/2022 08:33

I would add one thing: In times of peace and war, who does not need insurance ? ADM is not only one of the best yielder on offer, but also the most defensive during hard times. This is the type of strong defensive stock offering a steady stream of passive income to have in any balanced portfolio.

[wall street trader] 04/3/2022 07:59

Absolutely I am in for the long term

[topvest] 03/3/2022 20:19

It's a great company. It may go down more, but its still a great company generating 50%+ ROCE. Everything is being hit at the moment. Painful, but that's part of life as an investor unless you try market timing which is very difficult.

[holts] 03/3/2022 19:31

IC , kiss of death , I’m concerned now .

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2022 18:42

XD 118p 5/5/22

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2022 18:13

IC verdict today: BUY

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2022 17:17

Someone is desperate to see this go lower despite the strong fundamentals, even if profits do come in slightly lower in 2022 that's already been factored in and more! The fundamentals are still sound and increasing customer numbers is positive not negative.

[smith99] 03/3/2022 16:24

I've overloaded in admiral but if this goes sub 25 I shall be grabbing some more

[fuji99] 03/3/2022 16:22

Into my ISA as one of my best passive income for years to come. If it retreats further, I will be adding as many as I can afford. Holding 2000 shares will be more than £2000 a year. Better than any building society. This is if only the share price stagnates ...

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2022 15:59

Exactly, and now there are even more with Admiral with the increase in customer numbers reported.

[wall street trader] 03/3/2022 15:09

Are there less people taking out insurance ?

[voci] 03/3/2022 14:45

"Whilst the macroeconomic environment outlook has improved since the prior year, there is a still a great deal of uncertainty and volatility within economic forecasts. The weightings have been updated to reflect this more positive outlook, with the uncertainty element incorporated into post model adjustments."

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What a load corporate Guff that is. Lets translate it into plain English.

It looks like things are improving but when it comes to the economic forecasts we really don't have a clue what going to happen so we've made up some numbers which, with any luck will turn out to be something like what actually happens.

[topvest] 03/3/2022 14:26

The profits were already forecast to be lower in 2022, so should have been priced in. Average ROE of 55% over 5 years and modestly valued with a high dividend makes it a long term hold for me. Probably down because of Elephant loss in US and dividend miss. Still a great business.

[wall street trader] 03/3/2022 14:22

This is currently down 23% from the high - it's a great long term hold am happy to hold for tens year plus if I last that long

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2022 14:18

But also

"Whilst the macroeconomic environment outlook has improved since the prior year, there is a still a great deal of uncertainty and volatility within economic forecasts. The weightings have been updated to reflect this more positive outlook, with the uncertainty element incorporated into post model adjustments."

..and the point about the loyalty bonus is that after paying a generous dividend yield and a special dividend the company has been so successful that they can reward staff for their loyalty which will no doubt motivate them to be productive and stay with Admiral for the coming year, all in all that's good for shareholders.

[voci] 03/3/2022 14:16

There is a potential profit warning in there for 2022 though?

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In the results Under the heading "Group Chief Financial Officer’s Review" i

"We expect that Group profit in 2022 will be lower than 2021 and 2020."

I would say that passes as a profit warning. The question is how much lower?

Judging by todays crash rather a lot. But then again maybe not rather a lot, and market has overreacted. If you believe this to be the case and the lower profit has now been priced in and then some, it may be a good day to place your bets.

[topvest] 03/3/2022 14:14

Great company and just reading Henry Engelhardt's book at the moment. I've doubled-up today on the profit taking. 55% average 5 year ROE. Unique culture. 6% dividend yield. Good outlook. Enough said!

The UK business is already fantastic. International hasn't really worked out yet.

[voci] 03/3/2022 14:03

"giving staff £3600 each from last year's profits."

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Whoopee for the staff, I'm pleased for them.
However such an addition to the expenses reducing the profits doesn't exactly enhance shareholder value.