Abbey Nat. Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 26/7/2004 17:54

Corpbull,

The Abbey Board are merely recommending the offer to the banks shareholders - it is up to them whether they accept it. This bid might entice other offers out of the shadows. I dare say every Corporate Advisor in the City will be looking to get their own UK clients interested - particularly with the low cash element. As DVDA mentioned a UK bank will get better merger savings from cutting out the duplicated infrastructure and branches etc than a foreign player. If you only have to put equity up to secure those savings it looks like a no brainer. It would also make sense defensively to keep Santander out of the market - a re-invigorated Abbey might cause some problems.

Also, underneath the recent nightmare there is a pretty sound retail bank - that can probably be picked up much cheaper than the other mid-sized players. Its a question of whether other mid-ranked UK banks have ambition (because the larger ones such as LTSB will get blocked).

We'll have to wait and see but I see a counter bidder as a definite possibility.

Regards, Maddox

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 17:24

My CALCULATION...

7.79 EURO X .66 (EURO/POUND CROSS RATE)

Currently shows £5.14.
Including the 30p div..
I calculate this at £5.34 per share.

Not to pleasant reading.!!!

[corpbull] 26/7/2004 17:23

Can someone please enlighten me with the legality of this whole scenario.

What is the legal positon of the Directors of Abbey?

Can they agree to sell up to the Spanish for a sum they agreed without consulting the shareholders first?

Surely, they have an obligation to consult us first because by accepting the offer, we have to pay them millions in compensation, if it is being turn down.
This in my opinion is the most absurd thing to do with our money.

They are,in my eyes are the most incompetent bunch of PRIMA DONNAS beside Emron.

I hope other banks will come forward to put a realistic offer. Maybe LLOY or Citibank forward instead of watching us swallowed by them for a song.

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 17:20

One just hopes that each santander share holds its value and that the euro doesnt strengthen against the pound.

If yes, we can be seeing the offer close to 5.20 a share with the 30p already included.

That really would suck.

[sidebar] 26/7/2004 17:20

Did the people complaining about the "low" takeout price sell when the other offers (later withdrawn) were on the table? The share price rose at the time of the earlier offers and you were free to sell weren't you?

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 17:17

Abbey has also agreed to pay Santander an 81.7 mln stg "inducement fee" in
the event its directors withdraw their recommendation, in an effort to deter
other bidders.


Thats not nice lol.

[corpbull] 26/7/2004 15:44

Well, I can say is, they board sell us short!!! Why would he suddenly be so keen to recommend us to accept, when the deal is BAD!! A 20 percent premium, is nothing if you compare to the premium had it been 7.50. So from my point of view, they are not acting our interest. It would be interesting to learn what hold for Luqman if the take over goes through! I hope not because this is a very bad deal.

[sandbank] 26/7/2004 15:39

I wonder if LLOY are prepared to just sit on their hands and watch all these potential UK customers get taken off them by a bunch of Spanish trawlermen?

[dvda] 26/7/2004 15:34

CORPBULL

It was a different board a few years ago. At that time, all the board were long term Abbey people and as such were probably less inclined to give up a company that they had helped to grow over many years. Luqman Arnold & co are all new (except for Mark Pain), so don't have the same baggage. Arnold has always maintained that he would listen to any and all reasonably offers and would not act in a similar fasion to the old board.

The Santander bid represents a c. 20% - 30% premium over what most analysts consider to be fair value, so I think the board has a duty to recommend it to its shareholders. If the shareholders don't like it, because they think it is too low, or because of the small cash element, they can always reject it. Directors of companies have to act in the best interests of shareholders (I know it doesn't always seem that way), so to a certain extent their hands are tied. Ultimately this is not a bad offer (i.e. a 20% - 30% premium), so they've put it forward.

I appreciate that it must be incredibly frustrating for some shareholders, especially those that have held for a number of years and have seen the price drift down from the £13 - £14 mark. This must be doubly so, given the other, much higher bids, that have previously been rejected.

Interesting that Stephen Hester is going. Senior appointments like that don't happen over night, so he maust have been on his way for some time now i.e. not just as a result of the Santander offer. I no they have stated that, in effect, his job at Abbey was complete, but that doesn't ring quite true to me. I wonder what the real reason is?

[junnnn] 26/7/2004 14:54

What does the chart tell us about the price direction learning from the experiences of CCM, RTK, MKS, WWH, etc.? If the bid is not successful then the final top could be assumed in place. Otherwise a double top may be forthcoming given that no one traded at 580p at the last session. Unlikely to go above 600p either way.

[dvda] 26/7/2004 14:36

4 oaks

That valuation range has been mentioned in the weekend press, and today's FT had this line "Most analysts' standalone valuations of Abbey remain around 420p-460p..."

For my money Abbey should be on a PE of 10 - 12, and EPS from the core PFS business is probably 35p - 40p. A quick bit of maths gives a share price range of 350 - 480, so you can see that 420 - 450 is not an unreasonable view.

I really can't quite understand why some on here are so upset and expect a figure much closer to £7. No foreign bank will pay a 50%+ premium, as they won't be able to make enough cost savings from the deal. A UK bank could get a lot more from the deal in terms of cost savings through greater synergies, but I think even they would struggle to get to the £7 mark (that's if the Competition Committee allowed it thru).

CORPBULL - if Abbey turned down this offer, there is no guarantee that another would materialise. Infact, by rejecting Santander, they may give the impression that they won't go without a fight and in doing so put others off from bidding.

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 14:26

Alexis...you know what happens when yah fight back,
out of no where a boxing glove hits yah in the face!!!

Use protection!!!! lol

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 14:25

Corp bull ...

take a look at this..take yah mind off ANL for a while

[alexiskb1] 26/7/2004 14:25

nice one! FL.. :o) Im on a revenge trade now! must break even!

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 14:22

Lol..alexis...

Sue the silicon manufacturer!"!! lol

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 14:18

have a look at this. lol

Probably the best advert ever!!!

[alexiskb1] 26/7/2004 14:14

i already have twice with pesky stops! third time lucky. The fekin buy trigger went off in my bloody hand. bloody silicon chip screwed me

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 14:14

alexis...then throw yahself overboard,,and end yah misery lol.

[nmitra] 26/7/2004 14:13

i thought 600p bid for abbey.
what happened?

[deanf123] 26/7/2004 14:13

all over the place. like a mad womans sh*t.

[alexiskb1] 26/7/2004 14:11

christ i feel sea sick

[feelinlucky] 26/7/2004 13:56

LOLLY - JOLLY JILLY

[jillyann] 26/7/2004 13:49

E7.82 - Luvly Jubly!