Abbey Nat. Share Discussion Threads

[feelinlucky] 02/8/2004 07:53

I wouldnt get carried away.

If the spanitoes hear of a possible bid by HBOS., they may just
walk away from the whole episode and appease their shareholders.

This could prove counterproductive and cause a heavy drop in price.

[dm1] 01/8/2004 23:52

Agreed only HBOS & SCH have said anything at the moment, but suggest you read the most recent Updated AFX, speculation rife on the other two. Should make for an interesting few weeks.

[raxzi] 01/8/2004 22:45

DM1
Only HBOS has said anything. I think I had read somewhere that one other bidder had been turned down in that it was only willing to discuss if it were given access to more info which ANL had declined to do. HSBC would need to be given a greenlight from the MMB and this looks highly unlikely so you are left with SCH (plus ham tomorrow) or HBOS (if it's own shareholders and customers will be happy).

[dm1] 01/8/2004 22:18

Read Sundays AFX's looks interesting, no smoke without fire! Will it be SCH? HBOS? HSBC? CITYBANK? well I reckon at least 2 will fight it out, may the best man (I mean richest bidder) win :-)

[raxzi] 01/8/2004 19:22

There's something not quite right about it all. It's reported that the board had talks with other banks but turned them down because of the all paper nature of the deal(s) being discussed. Yet 31p is neither here nor there - some would say it just about compensates for paper being Spanish (no disrespect intended). If ANL is worth the money then it must be worth more to HBOS because of the greater savings in branch rationalisation and the easier fit at Head Office. If HBOS don't come in then many will think the savings SCH anticipates will not materialise and sell. Incidentally if ANL has £81m at risk for accepting another offer, can SCH pull out without penalty?

[madgooner] 01/8/2004 19:11

DM, then why not go for NRK (for quality) BB. (for cost opportunity) etc..?

I've no objection to the board accepting the bid, but why pay £81M of shareholders money to deter competitive bids? I suspect SCH will find the UK lending market a steep learning curve. Their locally competitive offers probably have inherently less risk due to restrictions on lending levels relative to income. I think the book is worth more than is being paid, but then I think "all" Banks are worth more than current price.

[impecunious] 01/8/2004 18:46

Presumably HBOS will bide their time.

The value of SCH's bid heavily dependent on its own share price. SCH said to be supporting own share price with a buy back of 4% of its shares.

However, with the increased speculation of a bidding war, presumably fears that SCH may agree to bid even more - using paper - could see further pressure on its share price....? If so, SCH's shares may fall anyway, reducing the value of its bid ...a vicious circle. Meanwhile, HBOS or HSBC turns up as a white knight at the last minute and 'rescues' Abbey without the need to pay much more than the current 8-8.5bn.

Just a possibility. Nevertheless would expect to see close to £6.00 in the meantime.

[raxzi] 01/8/2004 17:00

jfish
I think many private shareholders are upset at the way the bid appears to have been (for want of a better phrase) stitched up. An earlier deal with SCH appears to have been halted when knowledge of it came out. Why the secrecy? One newspaper reports that a possible bidder has been put off by being refused discussions and the 81 million, while only 1% of the bid price, is nevertheless seen by many as a self imposed penalty.
Not only has the board to do well by the shareholders, it has to be seen to be doing well by them.
You've taken 570p. Good luck. In turn you may wish others to try for something above that price. If they fail, that's their hard lines.

[jfish] 01/8/2004 16:02

I'm surprised people are unhappy with ANL accepting SCH's bid.
Even if there is an 80 odd million penalty fro changing there minds - any new bid (if there is one) will be more than the SCH bid + the penalty...

I think the directors have done the right thing - recommend a bid that is good compared to the realistic value of the shares (as opposed to what we'd like the shares to be) and they still have the possibility of entertaining other bids, but they will have to be at least the value of the penalty clause higher for ANL to recommend the bid.

Interesting days ahead...not that I'm holding anymore - out at approx 570p.
I personally believe that fair value has been seen in the share price and other bids will not be forthcoming as ANL would be too expensive for what it is...we shall see :-)

[maplinrover] 01/8/2004 14:25

Reject the bid. Pass a special resolution at the next AGM to reduce directors' fees and salaries by 75%. Open the books to all interested bidders and decide then whether to sell out to the highest or focus on the job the directors are supposed to be doing ie turning the company round. If the directors (and what a waste of space the non-execs are) don't like it, they know what to do.

[sanchezito] 01/8/2004 10:59

From my post on the Fool site:

I'm by no means an expert in these matters, but surely the Competition Commission would reject an HBOS takeover of Abbey?

I've just been reading an article on Teletext about Abbey, and it gives the market share for the main mortgage lenders (for 2003).

Halifax had a 22.5% market share. Abbey had 11.5%

So combined, they would have 34% of the mortgage market.

HSBC would surely be a more likely (successful) bidder. From memory, they only have about 3% of the UK mortgage market.

Cheers

Dave

[dm1] 01/8/2004 10:48

Further link:

[dm1] 01/8/2004 07:33

With HBOS entering the bidding war the shareprice will soar, the 600p+ level looks the next uptick coming this week.

[junnnn] 01/8/2004 07:29

I warned the final top was in place in Post 518."If there wasn’t a deal on the table for Abbey I would say fair value would be about 25% below today’s level, so it’s a good exit price."

[dm1] 01/8/2004 07:08

Let the bidding war commence!--My comment


From the Sunday Telegraph

HBOS prepares £9bn counterbid for Abbey National

For full story see:




DM1

[dm1] 01/8/2004 07:05

Madgooner, the British Mortgage market is a lucrative area for existing/new Banks to the UK market, plus a High Street prescence is hard to build up from scratch, much better to buy up a going concern for a song, though I think it will go for much more than a song.

See my next post with the accompanying link. DM1

[sandbank] 01/8/2004 07:04

...And now HBOS joins Citibank in the bidding line up.

LONDON : British bank HBOS is considering a surprise counter-bid for Abbey National, which last week accepted a takeover from Spain's Santander Central Hispano, a report said. HBOS is pondering an offer slightly over the 8.9 billion pounds (13.5 billion euros, 16.4 billion dollars) Abbey agreed with the Spanish group, the Sunday Telegraph newspaper reported.

[dm1] 30/7/2004 22:20

And then a U.S. bank takes over Lloyds :-)

Do we have a worldwide monopolies commission? lol

Have a good weekend, back to reality on Monday. DM1

[mainsail] 30/7/2004 21:16

DM1 : With massive Japanese banking take-overs under way a global game of musical chairs is now on in the banking industry- with pretty much everybody in play.
So how about this for a scenario? Abbey is taken over by Santander. Lloyds takes over Santander(Yes I know they said they won't - but remember Santander said it wouldn't take over Abbey. Banks lie!)

[broadwood] 30/7/2004 09:34

So Lloyds has ruled itself out of becoming involved and , like HBOS yesterday, reckon there's no chance of a bid from a U.K. clearer because of competition issues.

BUT Deutsche Bank chairman told the FT that it was going to become ' a consolidator in Europe'.

Wonder what that means?