Investment Evolution Cre... Share Discussion Threads

[orvis] 23/12/2008 09:15

Mad - yesterday's notice says they now hold 6.34% in 'relevant securities' (as well as the 5.98% short options). This was not a 'Disclosure of Holdings' notice as normally required, rather it was a Rule 8.3 notice.

[katsy] 23/12/2008 09:10

You lot are good at scaring yourselves.

[madjock2] 23/12/2008 09:07

orvis that part answers my question in that they can't use their own shares to close the short. so now/

A) who lent them the shares to short

B)How will they close?

[shiny1000] 23/12/2008 08:55

So still playing games, it will motor towards latter part of the day!

[squintyflinty] 23/12/2008 08:54

A lot of votes will be tendered today.Should go unconditional tomorrow morning.

[debbiegee] 23/12/2008 08:39

hmmmmmmmmm clever move,spook the markets ,earn on and close shorts forcing price back up then earn on longs as well.

[madjock2] 23/12/2008 08:32

Stuart my original point in bringing this up last night was to ask if anyone new if this strategy would involve holding back their vote to enhance the short position and whether they can use their own stock to close the short. I don't think it does but would someone who understands this sort of strategy please explain the full mechanics behind it please?

[debbiegee] 23/12/2008 08:30

mm are they gradually closing short positions?[I think most are]

Are they holding till the lastminute watching what everybody else does before deciding which way to jump and vote?

[orvis] 23/12/2008 08:29

I see - it has bought the CFDs not sold them. By voting no to the takeover, would the return on their successful short CFDs outweigh significantly the loss that would occur on the shares held? Presumably it would as the share price downside is thought to be greater than the upside. In that case wouldn't whoever sold such a large amount of short CFD to them want to be able to vote yes to try and stop them paying out?

[stuart14] 23/12/2008 08:17

It is a arbitrage fund. It will make money on the downside through its short positions, money on the upside through its long. It is weighted to the long side, so i'd assume they feel that is where w are heading.

[togglebrush] 23/12/2008 07:40

Market Daily Trading Volumes since Tuesday 9th December, when the offer was made, have been:-
Wed 3,364,844
Thu 1,663,419
Fri 1,047,171

Mon 1,429,242
Tue 1,032,549
Wed __877,507
Thu 1,224,517
Fri 1,642,448

Mon 1,192,281
Tue___________Today
Wed___________Half day trading On Christmas Eve

Mon___________
Tue___________Half day trading before Deadline @ 1.00 pm for 90% acceptances


The range of the Daily Trading Volumes since the rights issue on 6th May 2008
Max____7,577,016 ... 15th July
Q3_____1,896,634
Median_1,123,312
Q1_______750,397
Min______284,661 ... 12th June

A quarter of the sample of each day's trading lie between the numbers. The daily trading volumes, since the offer, have been close to the median. This suggests to me that the holders have made up their minds (IMHO to accept the offer).

[miamisteve] 23/12/2008 07:16

imperial3 - they are an arbitrage fund, so they are placing long, short contracts to lock in a certain profit.

Assuming that at the end of the CFD shorts are counter parties that have physically bought 6% of the company, then the yes vote for these shares will be attained.

[n1blet] 23/12/2008 02:42

Are they not borrowing stock to then allow customers to go short. Hence they are long and short on their books so that their books balance, whilst a customer will be short.

the alternative is that someone is deliberately holding stock which and refusing the offer whilst intending to make a profit by the resulting falls or for a fee form someone to stop the t/over.
THIS HOPEFULLY ANSWERS THAT

Q: "What is there to stop ONGC,acting through financial intermediaries,accummulating shares in the open market,to exceed 10% and hence causing the bid to fail?"

A: The law!

Section 997 of part 28 of the 2006 Companies Act (referenced by the offer document) states that the Share offer doesnt apply to shares held by associates of the offeror (presumably including the offeror itself). So my interpretation is that shares held by ONGC and associates shares are not treated as part of the offer for which 90% acceptance must be received.

[sailor9] 22/12/2008 21:26

Sharma:..has not affected the company's investment plans as yet...
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Current oil prices have put margins under pressure: ONGC

BS Reporter / New Delhi December 23, 2008, 0:52 IST

R S SharmaOil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), India's largest oil and gas exploration company, today said its profit margins are under pressure because of low crude oil prices, but it would not impact the planned expansion.

"Today's prices are not comfortable for us. Margins are under severe pressure," said R S Sharma, chairman and managing director of ONGC. He also added that this however has not affected the company's investment plans as yet, but if the current prices of crude oil continue for long at their present level, the company might have to review its plans.

"Though we have not put our investment plans on hold, but we are constantly carrying out review of our investments," he said.

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Sounds to me a bit like one more time Sharma signals: The IEC deal (ONGC greatest investment) will go through...

[imperial3] 22/12/2008 19:14

So,in effect,this does not really alter the whole scheme of things?

[madjock2] 22/12/2008 19:05

stuart can they use their own stock to close their short?

[stuart14] 22/12/2008 18:49

That is their arbitrage fund isn't it? I guess as long as they accept with their long position, and the owners of the stock they've borrowed to go short do the same we're O.K?

[debbiegee] 22/12/2008 17:27

Anybody can hit the accept button anytime as trading is still allowed.

[shiny1000] 22/12/2008 17:07

Don't pay too much attention on the buys: sells ratio, that can be misleading...however the good sign is the upward movement.

[imperial3] 22/12/2008 16:59

I notice that sells outnumbered buys by about 2.5 to 1,but the share price closed up.A good sign?