Investment Evolution Cre... Share Discussion Threads

[squintyflinty] 19/12/2008 19:51

Sibir energy has seeen it's share price drop mainly because of management moving into property purchases.IEC has no intention of doing this .Furthermore what does he mean when he mentions the impracticalities of getting hold of the right shareholders?This company is over 90% owned by institutions and they have all been contacted and advised very strongly to vote in favour. Couple this with the PI's who own approx 6% and the vast maajority of these will vote yes.90% should thereofore not be a problem
.
TINVAN:Iwould not leave anything to chance,there is too much at stake. Vote YES.Some companies if you do nothing will register a "No" vote. Take no chance!
By the way ,a nice chunky buy at the end.....nearly a £1,000,000

[30003000] 19/12/2008 19:18

"Midas in Mail" apologies if already appeared.


Since Christmas is coming up, there is very little in the form of companies reporting. However there is a very interesting situation coming up in the form of Imperial Energy (IEC). The company is operating in Western Russia, a treacherous investment area and since we are talking oil that compounds the risk in trading this company.

The company received a takeover proposal from ONGC, the state run Indian energy company. It made an offer to Imperial at 1250p back in August 2008. However when it made the offer oil was standing around $120 a barrel and not the $45 it is today. Political turmoil has also shown its hand as Russia bombarded Georgia and shunned many foreign investors as BP and Royal Dutch Shell can vouch for.

The deadline for the offer is 1pm on 30 December. The company requires 90 pct of acceptances from its shareholders otherwise the offer will lapse. The stock closed at 990p yesterday and with all the potential impracticalities of getting hold of the right shareholders in time, there is massive downside risk should this deal fail: fellow Russian but London listed Sibir Energy (SBE) has seen its shares fall 82 pct since the end of August. The upside reward is not bad and the probability is that the deal will go through. However I have calculated what I am prepared to lose based on 1250p and have personally gone short via a CFD as the risk/reward ratio is stacked hugely towards the downside, although I accept there is a high chance of losing a little should the company gain sufficient votes.

[tinvan] 19/12/2008 19:00

Selftrade have informed me that since the management are recommending the takeover they will accept on behalf of all their clients and I only have to inform them if I want to vote no. Can anyone else confirm that I don't have to do anything

[orvis] 19/12/2008 18:51

Fingers confidently crossed and my acceptance acknowledged by Fastrade yesterday.

[steelwatch] 19/12/2008 16:59

Just made sure my broker's acceptance spreadsheet is updated with yesterday's T20 top up. That's me done, so fingers XX'd and good luck to all except the nay sayers.

Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year!

[imperial3] 19/12/2008 16:45

At least we have finished on a positive note.

[nimzoi] 19/12/2008 16:42

Depends how much you believe the "feedback". The price reflects the risk.
Only one of us will be right; good luck. Signing off now. N

[squintyflinty] 19/12/2008 16:35

Yes but the feedback from institutions this time is very favourable.Also these are unprecedented times and fund managers can't overlook a golden opportunity!!

[nimzoi] 19/12/2008 16:26

Institutions have demonstrated their insanity many times before. I have a stop loss on it. It is a big risk I accept; nothing ventured.

[squintyflinty] 19/12/2008 16:16

Can I ask you why you have shorted them Nimzoi, Since over 90% are held by institutions who would be insane not to accept the offer.As A spokesman from Merryl Lynch said, " It would be exraordinary if the 90% level was not reached. How will you close your shortafter the RNS is released and the shares immediately cease trading?

[imperial3] 19/12/2008 16:11

Wonder whether we will get our wishes,before Christmas then?

[nimzoi] 19/12/2008 16:08

yes squinty; I have (but may regret it)

[squintyflinty] 19/12/2008 16:07

I would say that the 24th is more pivotal since it will take approx 24 hrs for ONGC to inform the market.

[squintyflinty] 19/12/2008 16:01

Shorters must have balls of steel if they are shorting this share at the present time,because the RNS could be realeased at any time

[imperial3] 19/12/2008 15:59

So December 23 is a critical day then.

[squintyflinty] 19/12/2008 15:58

When the 90 % threshold is crossed and 0NGC receive notification from Capita registrars ,is there anything stopping them moping up the remaining shares before releasing the RNS ?

[wshak] 19/12/2008 15:52

The reason that some institutions are not voting until late on is because they need to group together the underlying votes of their clients. In the case of MF Global, they will not vote their shares until 23rd Dec since to do it piecemeal would be an administrative nightmare.

I can understand that.

23rd December is perfectly fine for me since it allows people to trade their stock comfortably until that date. On the 23rd, I've been told that they will vote whatever shares are on account as inidcated earlier. I imagine other institutions are the same.

WShak

[madjock2] 19/12/2008 15:22

One of the Reasons for IEC's stormtroopers

taken from the ADSl thread that has now reached it's closure date today

paulie1 - 18 Dec'08 - 22:48 - 352 of 363


i only got letter from first direct and it was to late, i have not voted

love it - 18 Dec'08 - 22:53 - 353 of 363


you have. If you do not vote it goes down as a no vote

[shiny1000] 19/12/2008 14:51

Fireworks will be the green light!!!!!!!

[jelenko] 19/12/2008 14:48

Clearly, however, given the ability or inclination of the advisors to maintain confidentiality we won't be able to buy under £12 on the day of the rns.

Those in the know will have filled their boots by then.

[imperial3] 19/12/2008 14:44

The RNS is the green light though.

[jelenko] 19/12/2008 14:42

We won't need an rns to tell us that 90% is reached, the share price will do all the talking.

[imperial3] 19/12/2008 14:36

One would have expected,that institutions would have made up their minds by now.Why are some leaving it so late? What is the logic behind this?

[shiny1000] 19/12/2008 14:36

90% should be achieved, it seems the imperial energy juggernaut will not leave any stone unturned.