By Kejal Vyas, Ryan Dube and Juan Forero
CARACAS, Venezuela -- For Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro,
the easy part was winning a presidential race where the main
opposition candidates were barred, their supporters boycotted the
vote, and his government controlled every aspect of the contest,
including counting votes.
Now comes the hard part: Trying to pull his increasingly
isolated country out of the worst economic crisis in its history
and prevent growing chaos from turning a once wealthy nation into a
failed state that threatens its South American neighbors.
Mr. Maduro won a new six-year term in Sunday's vote by a
landslide, with 68% support versus 21% for Henri Falcón, a
breakaway former member of the opposition, and 11% for a former
evangelical pastor, according to figures from the
government-controlled state election agency. Mr. Falcón said the
election was unfair and called for a new vote later this year.
Democracies around the world condemned the election. On Monday,
U.S. Vice President Mike Pence called the vote a "sham -- neither
free nor fair." He called on Venezuela to allow humanitarian aid
into the country and said the U.S. "will not sit idly by as
Venezuela crumbles."
The White House also issued a new executive order that broadened
a ban on Americans from buying Venezuelan debt. The latest order
impedes Venezuela's ability to sell its foreign assets and
prohibits Americans from buying any debt owed to Venezuela.
"This executive order closes down a different set of loopholes
that we saw the regime attempting to exploit," said a senior Trump
administration official, adding that other countries in the
hemisphere had taken similar actions Monday and that the U.S.
believed that Mr. Maduro's government would see its ability to make
such sales "severely circumscribed" as a result.
A coalition of 14 nations from throughout the Americas announced
early Monday they wouldn't recognize the result of the vote. The
countries urged international entities not to extend Venezuela any
credit, and said they would recall their ambassadors from Caracas
to protest the unfair and opaque vote.
The diplomatic isolation is likely to increase Mr. Maduro's
reliance on a handful of other authoritarian nations, including
Cuba, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey -- all of which offered Mr.
Maduro their congratulations.
With the win, Mr. Maduro enters the ranks of other strongmen,
including Yugoslavia's Slobodan Milosevic and Zimbabwe's Robert
Mugabe, who held power through dire economic conditions, according
to Johns Hopkins University professor Steve Hanke, an expert on
hyperinflation.
"You know ultimately it's going to be a death blow, a dagger in
the heart, but you just don't know when it's going to come," he
said.
The election, which drew the lowest turnout for a Venezuelan
presidential vote since the 1950s, leaves Mr. Maduro with little
legitimacy, particularly as hyperinflation hollows out the economy
and an estimated 5,000 Venezuelans flee the country every day. The
U.N. expects up to 1.8 million people to leave by year-end,
swamping Colombia, Brazil and other neighbors and creating South
America's worst refugee crisis in modern times.
For many ordinary Venezuelans, Mr. Maduro's win means more of
the same: a country sliding deeper into crisis with little chance
of a turnaround. Prices double roughly every few weeks, the economy
is nearly 50% smaller than it was in 2013, and food and medicines
are increasingly scarce. Public services like electricity are
collapsing, and so is oil production, which provides the country
with nearly all of its dollar income. Diseases such as measles and
malaria are spreading fast.
Many here awoke on Monday with a sense of dread, anxious that as
bad as things are now, they could get a lot worse.
"I feel like crying, I feel depressed, I feel rage," said
Adriana Luna, 35, a social worker outside Caracas who had abided by
the main opposition coalition's call to boycott the vote. "You feel
like you no longer are alive, like you have terminal cancer."
Along with three of her brothers and one of her sisters, she is
now set to join a growing exodus of Venezuelans. They plan to head
to Colombia or Ecuador and make enough money to send home to keep
family members left behind alive.
"It's the only way for the family to survive," she said.
Mr. Maduro, a former bus driver and protégé of the late populist
Hugo Chávez, has offered few plans to rescue the economy's decay
beyond cutting three zeros off the local currency, a step
economists say will do nothing to halt price increases. His
government blames the situation on outside forces like the U.S. and
big business,
"The economy is Maduro's Achilles' heel," said Asdrubal
Oliveros, director of the Caracas-based consultancy
Ecoanalítica.
Venezuela faces $6 billion in debt repayments during the second
half of this year. Investors holding some of the nearly $3 billion
in defaulted government bonds are organizing to target Venezuelan
assets -- like oil shipments -- as compensation. Energy giant
ConocoPhillips has already begun seizing Venezuelan oil in the
Caribbean to recoup $2 billion that an international arbitration
court awarded the company for assets that Venezuela nationalized in
2007.
OPEC reported that Venezuela, which sits atop the world's
largest oil reserves, saw production fall to 1.4 million barrels a
day in April, down from 2.4 million five years ago. That is the
lowest level since the early 1950s, when the country was on the
rise as one of the planet's top exporters, according to economist
Orlando Ochoa.
Falling production will prevent Venezuela from benefiting from
rising oil prices. Making matters worse, the country only receives
cash for about a third of its current production, economists say.
The remainder is given at cut-rate prices to Caribbean allies like
Cuba, to repay loans to China and Russia, and to supply the
domestic market, where gasoline is virtually free.
"These challenges means that this is an administration that will
never be stable or consolidated," said Javier Corrales, a Venezuela
expert at Amherst College. "The governance challenges are too
huge."
Despite the growing troubles, Mr. Maduro faces few short-term
challenges. There were no signs of protests on Monday after the
election, and many antigovernment activists are worn out after
protest movements in 2014 and 2017 led to harsh government
crackdowns and no change.
The country's fractured opposition, meanwhile, seems to be
pinning its hopes on outside intervention or a military coup, both
of which most analysts see as highly unlikely. While there is
growing dissatisfaction within the armed forces, the government has
uncovered and neutralized a handful of recent plots.
"He's got the power, he has control of all the institutions,"
said Michael Shifter, president of the Washington think tank
Inter-American Dialogue. "There are no signs of any serious cracks
in the ruling circle and military that might threaten his
continuing rule."
The opposition, Mr. Shifter said, "doesn't have much leverage to
change the situation."
Its decision to boycott the election, Mr. Shifter suggested,
hadn't done anything to increase the opposition's stature.
"The game is really Maduro and the ruling clique and
institutions it controls. As bad as the economy gets, the country
can still limp along on 1.5 million barrels per day," he said.
"It's a tragedy and a disaster, but this doesn't spell the end of
the regime."
--José de Córdoba in Mexico City and Louise Radnofsky in
Washington contributed to this article.
Write to Kejal Vyas at kejal.vyas@wsj.com, Ryan Dube at
ryan.dube@dowjones.com and Juan Forero at Juan.Forero@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2018 17:33 ET (21:33 GMT)
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