In his latest research note for Solomon Global, contributing analyst Nick Cawley explains why the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this week — and how escalating geopolitical tensions are reinforcing gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.

With markets pricing in a near-100% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, attention is turning to Chair Powell’s post-meeting comments and the updated ‘dot plot’ for clues on future policy shifts. Despite moderating inflation and a strong jobs market, concerns persist around the delayed impact of the “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by President Trump, which could drive inflation higher in the coming months.

Cawley also highlights the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, which continues to underpin demand for safe-haven assets. With tensions escalating and military action spreading, investor appetite for gold remains strong.

“If gold breaks and closes above its prior all-time high at $3,500/oz, price discovery should drive the precious metal to test round numbers at $3,600/oz and $3,700/oz.,” notes Cawley, contributing analyst for Solomon Global.

To download and read Nick Cawley’s full market analysis and gold outlook, click here

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