Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[andrewbyles] 04/5/2024 12:09

Here’s someone’s opinion:

[pavey ark] 04/5/2024 11:03

"A fair number of TXP holders wouldn’t mind if the deal doesn’t happen."

That would suggest that some TXP shareholders know as little about TRIN as I know about TXP.

If nothing else happened TRIN would have $10m+ cash and 2650 bpd at the year end.....massive tax credits and Galeota.

I am assuming that the TXP shares that I then hold will rise in value when the obvious value is revealed.

I certainly don't want to get into a bun fight with TXP holders as I no longer care and I am not even going to look closely at any aspect of the company other than the share price......I have my sale targets set......"better to travel in hope than to arrive"

[nocents] 04/5/2024 10:52

It is a sign of weaknessto be influenced by trollop spoken on bb’s. They should have communicated anyway which was their failing!
If a company is influenced by free tittle tattle, well..woe is me. If you can’t stand the heat…….
The communication was clearly one-way as we never heard anything back.
Credit that they had an AGM in person though.
But my point is that they shouldn’t be reading bb’s if they don’t like what they read!!!
As per the takeover.
2 shares would have been more pari passu to the value, but it is what it is.
Seems likely to go through.
It will be of great interest as to what comes of the Cascadura gas flows. Don’t believe the hype. Wait for results.Q3 all being well.
I think it is a good deal for Txp. They are constany fund-raising so I don’t blame dilution-response from Txp holders. But it will provide decent cash( incl our dividend!?) , decent cash profit, decent bopd diversifying and almost tripling their own oil, Jacobin shallow production, BA assuming they still want to drill it.
I think we could see TXP share price volatility upmor down before Sep. but a lot depends on how PB handles the marketing, something he does make an effort with. We don’t want any big promises though. Trin and JSE are just 2 examples of how it can go wrong with driiling and storagge.

[pavey ark] 04/5/2024 10:51

I had a look and the TXP shareholders (ADVFN posters) are far from pleased with their management but the winder market simply had absolutely no faith in the TRIN management.

I intend to vote for the deal for the simple reason that I consider it the best way to realise the value in TRIN....and my shareholding.

Since the approach by TXP their share price has certainly outperformed TRIN (hardly difficult).
The G&A figure for TRIN is over $7m a year so a lump can be taken from this.

Regarding the TXP share price ..it responded to some good drilling results and was over 50p for most of April then fell away.....if ,as some TRIN holders are saying, this is a good deal for TXP then the TXP share price should respond.

Would like to see someone else coming in here but it looks like a done deal.

[nafafa] 04/5/2024 08:17

Orbit, that is a very good point. According to the presentation, it was TXP that approached Trin, not the other way around. We do not know how hard our Board negotiated but I would not be surprised if they threw in the towel, perhaps persuaded by the offer of generous redundancy payments. The negotiations deemed Trin to be valued at at least 75p a share, so that have should have established a share swap equivalent value floor to be applied when the deal goes through.

[orbit007] 04/5/2024 00:18

I will keep an open mind, until the vote and an eye on Truestone share price. It's in the shop window, so someone else may come in. I think you need to make the distinction between selling Trinity or its assets and the potential value that can be gained with whatever Touchstone are pedalling about upside with them...lets be clear, in the RNS info it says the share exchange ratio was agreed in Nov 23 when Touchstone share price was over 50p, that would be a materially higher value being ascribed to Trinity than the current share price of Touchstone implies.

I saw the decline rate has caused an issue with them recently on their prime asset, I don't really like how far their share price has fallen recently, I also think they pulled the trigger with that offer because they want to get it done before they lose anymore value. Trinity is a profitable company, it could continue on its own path..but that brings me to management....

I think our management have thrown the towel in, partly because they read this board and threw their toys out the pram at our critique of their performance. So we can't ignore the issue that they may just want shot at any price. Lets face it, this is being sold for £10m ex y/e forecast cash on current Truestone price, that seems a bit daft.

[andrewbyles] 03/5/2024 23:42

Whilst at first glance the takeover price is disappointing, the merger with Touchstone is a great deal for Trinity shareholders and represents our best chance to, in the first instance, recover our investment and, in the second, make a profit.

I imagine that it was difficult for Trinity to reach an agreement with Touchstone, but they’ve done well to do it. Whilst I appreciate that the directors will likely get a significant chunk of notice pay, they’ve voted themselves out of their jobs and, I suspect especially for Jeremy, have made the difficult decision to effectively vote many of their employees out of their jobs too (Trinity managed to make it through the coronavirus pandemic without making redundancies and were pleased about that; hopefully, though as the enlarged Touchstone expands production new jobs will be created).

The merger obviously makes sense. The cost savings alone could easily amount to $2 million per year (the salaries of 7 directors, the salaries of a several senior managers, the expenses of those employees, the costs of an HQ, the auditing and accounting costs, the lawyers’ fees, the brokers’ fees and the PR people’s fees). The combined group has a real opportunity to flourish and there’s a good chance that will soon be reflected in the share price (which is at four year low), especially as the merger will also coincide with Touchstone bringing on line additional production and some of Trinity’s assets finally being ready for exploitation.

I intend to vote for the merger.

[sleepy] 03/5/2024 22:45

Above post assumes that TXP have not said they won’t increase their offer (which I believe to be the case and is important under the Takeover Code)

[sleepy] 03/5/2024 22:38

Having invested for decades without having bought a small oil company i started to buy shares in TRIN this year. I am concerned about the competence of the TRIN board and that they may not have got a good/best deal for shareholders.

I think TRIN is subscale and can see logic in putting TRIN and TXP together (also very happy to accept a better offer from someone else)

My understanding is that what is currently proposed would result in TRIN shareholders having about 20% of the enlarged company. Is this reasonable/fair? TRIN shareholders could achieve a 25% interest with an offer of 2 TXP shares for 1 TRIN share.

The proposal requires a 75% vote in favour. Assuming 80% of shareholders vote then it could be defeated by holders of about 8 million shares. The largest shareholder has 4m shares. There may well be others who would support an attempt to improve the offer and with £2 million, not a large amount of money to some people, and the support of the largest TRIN shareholder then TXP could be forced to renegotiate their offer (or let it lapse which I sense that they would be reluctant to do)

[aqc888] 03/5/2024 18:43

Is everyone sure tax losses can be transferred to a different company?

[davidblack] 03/5/2024 16:50

Perenco probably already have targets on Galeota but maybe currently too close to their boundary with Trinity.

That’s not ideal as all you end up doing is proving up your neighbours ground if you strike oil.

Merging the two areas via a JV on new production, with Perenco taking the leadership, probably is something that they might want?

The problem for any junior company and certainly Trinity given it was a Tier 1 asset on their balance sheet is that it’s so very difficult to give up control on. Txp don’t have that issue.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 16:43

Perenco already produce from the same offshore block as Galeota. Galeota would be little effort for them. Not that they are interested or not, no idea.
Certainly would make sense, but business CBA perhaps. They are involved with bigger players like BP.
But who knows?

[davidblack] 03/5/2024 16:12

Perenco probably don’t want the onshore, much easier to have a quiet chat with TXP and do a JV where TXP chips in a modest amount to a bigger offshore area play.

That would make the Ministry much happier players with focus in charge.

A competent onshore player with the land assets and a serious offshore player running the show in the water.
Txp probably would be delighted too they now have a lot of ground onshore and two workforces to integrate.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 16:00

I have no proof nor evidence. But until there is a statement regarding a counterbid, it will all remain theory, hypothesis, even wishful thinking. Not that these things don’t happen and no disrespect intended as your argument is sound Orbit. In my experiences of takeovers, the effort involved often precludes a rival. The business CBA factor.
Perenco can afford it but can they afford to be bothered?

[orbit007] 03/5/2024 15:25

Taxation losses at 31 December 2022 available for set off against future taxable profits amounts to
approximately $227.5 million (2021: $234.6 million), with tax losses recognised of $24.9 million at the end of
2022. These losses do not have an expiry date and have not yet been confirmed by the Board of Inland
Revenue (“BIR”) or His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (“HMRC”). Tax losses carried forward by companies
engaged in petroleum production business in Trinidad and Tobago are restricted to set off against 75% of
the otherwise chargeable profits in a year.

[orbit007] 03/5/2024 15:23

I would like to know then value of the tax losses. The Cavendish FV of Trinity increased dramatically if they can be utilised. If they are $200m, what is the tax rate they can shield from? Reason I ask is, if Trinity is now clearly 'in play' surely other producing companies in the region will have a look - i.e Perenco, if the value of those losses exceeds £11m which is the bid value at present less year end cash, then I would expect a rival bid for those alone, discounting the value of Galeota or existing production.

[davidblack] 03/5/2024 15:09

Just watched the Investor's presentation in December the director who answered the questions sounded exhausted.

Feels like that body language explains why they were happy to depart.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 15:01

Of course it would have been fairer for Trin holders, but it is not going to happen.

[sleepy] 03/5/2024 14:37

Broadly Trinity shareholders end up with c 20% of the enlarged company.

Is this fair or would 25% (roughly equivalent to 2 TXP shares for each TRIN share) be fairer?

[che7win] 03/5/2024 13:48

Nocents, I have also been defrauded over the years I similar way. Best we look forwards, looking back is depressing.I bought TRIN many years ago, then switched out to TXP.Now back in here heavily this week.Dont look into share price too much, there is arbitrage opportunity. I've struggled to buy 0.5% here.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 13:34

Sure. Yes I called 61.9p the ‘ contractual’ value as it was on the one agreed day. Yes it’s meaningless.
There is no fixed price, and as and if this deal goes through end Q3 I will see it as one company moving forwards. I have been invested in T and T since 2013, have an ide of their govt. methodologies, and the biggest stumbling block was always SPT, now raised to $75 on and offshore. It’s the biggest reason investment never happened in T and T. Still an issue but not a prevention. Trin’s oil is assessed as an average received price of $15 below Brent ( approx) as the heavy and light oils are blended by Heritage. First time in 10 years that Trin is making profit.
I now have to learn more about gas.
I am very cautious about being optimistic-only because of me. I accumulated well over half a million in my lifetime only to lose 95% ( yes 95%) of it by being naively defrauded by Pog, Ncyt, 4D ( the kings of deceit!). And I first bought Trin on advice in 2013 at £1.50 ( the equivalent of £15 a share now!!!) LShould have left it in the Virgin tracker but oh no…I took advice!! More fool me.
So, with my family having been reduced from fairly wealthy to all but skint, I have no fingers left to cauterise, so am very wary of any optimism. This might explain my caution with your comments-nothing personal. I do not believe directors or trust the market. With good reason. But at least I know TXP and I agree it should be 2+2=5. I aim to hold long term if poss…I’d like to see £1.50 again.
I can never retrieve what I have lost, but to make a tad back would help with everyday spends:-)

[che7win] 03/5/2024 12:56

Nocents,
As you know, you're not getting 61.9p now, that was a snapshot price.
Right now it's worth TRIN 57.5p share price and when Cascadura next two Wells go on steam, market price should be 80p for TXP, which equates to 120p per TRIN share if you look at it that way.

So it really is meaningless to look at the 61.9p.

I will be disappointed if we aren't at TXP 150p in 18 months.

I'm happy with this deal, and it takes a lot for me to be happy on takeovers.

Not right to think of them and us and start thinking of 2+2=5 for combined companies.

We're going to have massive synergies, cost cutting, job cuts, removal of duplication, that alone makes this deal earnings accretive from the get go