Destiny Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[briankrakow] 26/4/2024 13:23

they were right to tell us that they had a new cheaper plan for the Phase 3 trial. But I'm not convinced they were right to say that they were doing a strategic review. As Vadim Alexandre, surely companies should be reviewing their strategies all the time? Saying that has just increased the uncertainty.

But what's done is done, and there's plenty to be positive about here.

[wh1spa] 26/4/2024 13:01

Having mulled over the meeting and read all the blurb I've topped up. They'll either do a deal or sell it all IMHO and that's the meaning of the 'strategic review' of their announcement. So how much for a company with a streamlined Phase 3 ready - highly effective, new generation AMR proof product - with more in the pipeline.

[sev22] 26/4/2024 12:23

A link to yesterday's Investor Meet Company Presentation - Final Results.

[carlisle44] 26/4/2024 11:51

Brian, we knew since last year that talks have been in tow as such I think Dest were right to say that it has listened and learned and that its strategic review now enables it to re-engage with greater prospects (halving the Trial costs being, it seems to me pivotal). If it had remained silent as to where we are then uncertainty would, in my view have been rampant.

edmona thank you for posting the note above.

[edmonda] 26/4/2024 11:25

"A year of progress, and addressing the future", new research note is here:

Destiny Pharma (LON:DEST) full-year results for the year ending December 31 2023 included news of a strategic review of the options for its lead program XF-73 nasal. Cost-controls and reduced clinical trial spend at this point in the development of Destiny’s assets reduced the loss for the year.

With the increased focus on the partnering of XF-73 nasal, we were left in no doubt after the analysts’ meeting that XF-73 nasal is both a valuable asset and that it will be partnered at some point in time. While an external out-licensing transaction for XF-73 nasal similar to that for NTCD-M3 remains probable, the strategic update suggests a range of other options to achieve the same result for this asset.

Our fair value for Destiny Pharma plc has changed to £212.0m (or 234p / share) from £254.7m (or 279p / share). This reflects the longer times until Phase 3 studies start and, as a result, its products launch at Destiny’s partners. It also reflects the vast global unmet need that XF-73 nasal can address.

[wh1spa] 25/4/2024 19:49

Could they be looking to sell M3 in its entirety? That should raise a few bucks...!

[briankrakow] 25/4/2024 19:10

Thanks for flagging up the interview with Vadim Alexandre. Valid point about the 'strategic review.' Did they need to mention it?

The optimistic scenario on this is that the new plan for the Phase 3 trial will lead to a deal in the autumn, and no further funding will required. If that happens, the current share price will be an absolute steal.

The pessimistic scenario is that there will have to be a very dilutive fundraising or the strategic review will lead to another very dilutive outcome that I haven't even thought of.

Frankly, at £16 million, there's an argument for putting on XF-73 on hold and waiting for M3 to develop. Better that than horrendous dilution in my view.

[wh1spa] 25/4/2024 18:05

Tovey and Rudd must both have some good connections that want a piece of the pie. I like the fact the XF Nasal is being given priority - presumably if it's safe enough to go up the nose it should be a relative doddle to get XF D signed off. I think Tovey & Barker make a great team and if they can't create shareholder value here then no one can.

[adorling] 25/4/2024 17:59

Very good analysis from Vadim Alexander on today’s fall in his interview with JW - basically don’t touch it with a barge pole.

[akbar1] 25/4/2024 13:01

Please hold. Good news on back of thus come. 14:31 stanby

[terminator101] 25/4/2024 12:37

I'd dear gerbils. That news went down well huh.

[carlisle44] 25/4/2024 12:16

Cost of phase 3 addressed , talks continue. Product progress embellished. Glad I did not sell this morning.

[cerrito] 25/4/2024 12:14

If I understood it right Dr Parker said they would get sign off on the Phase 3 trials from FDA and Japan by the end of the summer.
Is that how you understood it?
Tight timing given end of cash runway in q1 2025.

[banshee] 25/4/2024 11:02

At some point this is likely to become a buy, after the likely September fund raising perhaps. That should fund them through to phase 2 on DFUs, and back to phase 3 on M3.

[charlie] 25/4/2024 10:11

Idomeneo:

Is the text in your post generated by CHatGPT? Or some other LLM - which one, and what prompt?

[raleigh43] 25/4/2024 09:11

This share was good for me. Bought low sold high by chance. A reminder that these days you have to take profits when they arise and not fall in love with a share or ‘the story’

[purple11] 25/4/2024 08:57

Daily MAIL tipping these@50p

they dont get em all right!

[idomeneo] 25/4/2024 08:39

No licensing deal for XF-73 nasal: Despite engaging with potential partners and receiving positive feedback, Destiny Pharma has not been able to secure a licensing deal for XF-73 nasal that they believe provides fair value to the company and its shareholders. This lack of a deal could be seen as a setback by investors.
Uncertainty about the future of XF-73 nasal: The company is now undertaking a review of strategic options to determine how best to advance XF-73 nasal through Phase 3 clinical trials. This review introduces uncertainty about the future development path of the product, which could make investors nervous.
Potential need for additional financing: As part of the strategic review, Destiny Pharma is considering the possibility of securing finance to enable it to conduct the Phase 3 clinical studies itself. This suggests that the company may need to raise additional funds, which could dilute existing shareholders or be seen as a risk if the financing is not secured.
Perception of the commercial potential of antibiotics: The announcement mentions that potential partners have expressed concerns about the prevailing perceptions of the commercial potential of antibiotics. This could indicate a broader market sentiment that may be affecting the valuation of companies working in this space.

While the announcement also highlights some positive developments, such as the partnership with Sebela Pharmaceuticals and the potential cost savings from a new clinical trial design for XF-73 nasal, the overall tone of the update seems to have introduced more uncertainty and potential challenges, which could explain the negative market reaction.

[adorling] 25/4/2024 08:18

XF73-Nasal - the bubble has well and truly burst. Pharmas/Biotech CO’s doing due diligence over past 8 months obviously do not see a commercial return vs Phase 3 trial costs and upfront payment and royalty’s. Not good as clinical results have been outstanding to date. Management called it wrong and Tovey has that on his record now.

[the codger] 25/4/2024 08:17

It's unfortunate but that's the gamble

[s34icknote] 25/4/2024 08:15

Another junk status pharma to go with dddd and the rest ! Avoid pharma they're hazardous to your health ! More trials more money !

[john henry] 25/4/2024 08:03

unbelievably they hadnt nailed the cost of the phase 3 trial no wonder no JV was forecoming.

Out at 17p for a loss.

[bones698] 25/4/2024 07:57

What they think the company is worth and what the market thinks are probably very wide apart however anyone looking to acquire wil gonoff the current mkt cap and not what the current ceo thinks. Hence no deals or offers imo. If management were any good they would have raised with the share price higher months ago. Now it's a big problem they face and shareholders will pay the price
Sub 15p today maybe 13p by eod